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LNG volumes to the beleaguered Freeport facility have continued to ramp up, reaching 0.8 BCF/d yesterday & 1.0 BCF/d or 45% capacity per today’s early-cycle data. As a result, total LNG feedgas will hold steady at 12.9 BCF/d, one-month highs & down just -0.5 BCF/d YoY. #Natgas
What a difference a year makes. #Natgas production will hold sub-99 BCF/d today while imports from Canada will fall to 4.8 BCF/d. As a result, total supply will come in at 103.6 BCF/d, down -4.1 BCF/d vs 2023, the largest YoY decline (excluding transient freeze-offs) since 2021.
The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count continues to slowly grind lower, losing 1 rig this week to 105 rigs. It was the fourth straight weekly decline & eighth in the last 10 weeks. The Rig Count is at its lowest since Jan 14, 2022 & is down -56 rigs or -35% vs this time last year.
After rising as high as 12.8 BCF/d on Tues, LNG feedgas demand has reversed lower and, per today’s early-cycle data, will drop another -0.7 BCF/d to 11.3 BCF/d, -2.3 BCF/d vs 2023. Freeport will stay almost entirely offline after an attempted restart earlier in the week. #Natgas
For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report for April 13-19, I am projecting a +81 BCF injection, 22 BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg & 3 BCF larger than last year. It would be second largest build for the week in the last 5 yrs, below only 2019’s +92 BCF.
The European #natgas storage surplus continues to narrow after yesterday’s out-of-season -5 BCF/d daily withdrawal (5-yr avg: +8 BCF/d). At +709.9 BCF, the storage surplus vs the 5-yr avg has now contracted by nearly 70 BCF since April 15. Still a long ways to go.
Over the weekend, LNG feedgas demand trended higher to 11.7 BCF/d yesterday from last week’s lows of 9.1 BCF/d. Per today’s early-cycle data, flows will jump to 12.8 BCF/d, still down -1.9 BCF/d from last year but the highest since Apr 4. Let's see if it holds up tonight. #Natgas
#Natgas production has continued to grind lower, dipping to 98.5 BCF/d in today’s early data, while year-ago output was breaking out to new highs. As a result, production is now down -3.1 BCF/d vs 2023, the largest year-over-year decline—excluding brief freeze-offs—since 2021.
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The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count dropped for a 3rd week, shedding 3 rigs to 106 rigs, down -53 rigs or -33% vs 2023. This is the lowest rig count since Dec 17, 2021 & the largest year-over-year decline since Nov 20, 2020. Production losses aren't going to reverse anytime soon.
LNG feedgas demand held above 10 BCF/d in yesterday’s revised data and, per today’s early-cycle numbers, will rise by +0.8 BCF/d to 10.8 BCF/d, still down -3.8 BCF/d year-over-year. Today’s recovery will be driven primarily by Cameron (+0.5 BCF/d) & Freeport (+0.3 BCF/d). #Natgas
For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report for April 6-12, I am projecting a +46 BCF injection, 15 BCF bullish versus both the 5-yr avg & last year. It would be the second smallest injection for the week in the last 5 years, above only 2022’s +37 BCF.
While #natgas prices are lower this morning on continued weak LNG exports & a re-evaluation of yesterday’s Canada pipeline news, total supplies remain near 2024 lows at 103.5 BCF/day, down -2.8 BCF/d vs last year, the largest sustained YoY drop (excluding freeze-offs) since 2021.
Despite a recent decline, #natgas money manager short holdings are still up nearly 30% versus last year & are nearly 40% higher than current long holdings. This sets the commodity up for quick short squeezes as we saw this afternoon. More: celsiusenergy.net/p/natural-gas-…
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@CelsiusEnergyFM Your over simplifying some numbers here. It's been abit cooler but equally the huge surplus is hardly making any rush to top it up. EU is pure winter gas. The only air-conditioning most people have in residential is opening a window. (Or keeping them closed when it's 40c outside)
@CelsiusEnergyFM why aremyou surprised...even if freeport was constantly on line...ex[ports would still fall...Europe has plenty in storage....
@CelsiusEnergyFM The big question is will it be bullish enough to make NG stop trading like a POS or not? We all Appreciate your hard work Celsius, as always!
Nothing like #TeamWork
As the solar eclipse moved across Texas, there was a brief, but significant drop in solar generation on the state's ERCOT grid from 14,000 MW to less than 1,000 MW. This was compensated for by a nearly 50% increase in #natgas generation from 18,000 MW to 28,000 MW. Pretty neat.
I guess BOIL bought July at yesterday's bottom and sold May at 1820$ yesterday's top. While KOLD just sits on the couch and rolls another doobie 😝 #natgas ain't fair
The 2x #natgas ETF BOIL has begun its bimonthly rollover, selling May contracts & buying July contracts. As of Friday evening, the fund held 20% July contracts & 80% May contracts. The rollover will conclude by Thursday. The 1x ETF UNG continues to hold May contracts.
@CelsiusEnergyFM For the love of your money, don't hold $BOIL
@CelsiusEnergyFM This is where production, LNG, wind & solar shine. All equally important.
@CelsiusEnergyFM @CelsiusEnergyFM you knock it out of the park everytime pal
@CelsiusEnergyFM I am a subscriber and appreciate the added weekly commentaries and insights.
@CelsiusEnergyFM This tweet didn't age well. Freeport flow for March 26 was not higher. When will you learn that current day guesses for Freeport flows are constantly revised and worthless?
@CelsiusEnergyFM Seasonal contango has already reflect this tightening... may be... etf holders will not have capital gain throughout roll overs...
@CelsiusEnergyFM When are these cheap prices gonna get cured…. Its been a long time ..
@CelsiusEnergyFM Sorry, but it’s poor prediction!
@CelsiusEnergyFM Going to be an interesting 3 or 4 weeks watching production cut announcements duke it out with EIA storage reports.
@CelsiusEnergyFM also grammatical thing, ung did not decline -71%, it declined 71%
@CelsiusEnergyFM i would also like to point out that shorting KOLD is not as great as you said because most brokers charge 20-90% APR cost to borrow fees, which are hidden fees, that could ruin you if you dont know about it. selling deep ITM calls avoids this, but is not for novices
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