Plus EV Analytics @PlusEVAnalytics
Actuary. Gambler. Pragmatist. Canadian. Small data specialist. Instructor “Art of Sports Betting Analytics” https://t.co/8cxdAMuYbu plusevanalytics.com Toronto, Ontario Joined January 2013-
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In places where single game betting was illegal but parlays were ok, why didn’t operators just offer a “will the sun rise tomorrow? 1.01 yes” prop? Boom, there’s your parlay. @PiskyPositivo
Honestly congrats #bestoflinkedin
Any time you can put your $100 million veteran QB on the hot seat AND suggest that your shiny new draft pick might ride the bench for FIVE years, all before the first day of training camp, how could you not do it?
If my new Porsche sits in my garage for four or five years collecting dust, that’s a good thing because it means my 1998 Suzuki Swift is still running
If you think you can tell the difference between a 99.9% and 99.99% probability event just on judgment, I hope for your sake you get there but there are hundreds of thousands of years of human brain evolution up against you.
People who are predicting trades - isn’t that like a one in a million shot to get exactly right?
3 of the 9 goals allowed by Ilya Samsonov in this series came on low-quality shot attempts (<5% goal probability at time of release) By comparison, 0 of the 6 goals allowed by Jeremy Swayman/Linus Ullmark in this series..
Taught myself Stan by asking ChatGPT to write code for me. I feel like Keanu Reeves in the matrix learning kung fu by having it downloaded into his brain.
Utah Hockey Club? What are you, too good for a team name like everyone else has?
Draft betting, one of the few domains where math gets you basically nowhere
Do weird golf events like this week level the playing field between the sharps and the public, or do they give the sharps even more of an edge? @RufusPeabody @Saramek21
I thought I set up my model properly but I left out one important parameter.
This is the greatest religious text ever written
No parental advisory explicit content warning? White privilege!
No parental advisory explicit content warning? White privilege!
Originators and steam chasers, obv
Originators and steam chasers, obv
Was Pharaoh the first ever to fuck around and find out?
Joey Knish @JoeyKnish22
37K Followers 1K Following Gambling Twitter Degen. Grinding that rent money. As seen on @NBAonTNT. Called “basically a card counter” by Dave Portnoy. Always need accounts. @TheHammerHQ
Rob Pizzola @robpizzola
47K Followers 782 Following Pro sports bettor. Co-founder, CEO @TheHammerHQ. Co-owner @Betstamp. Co-host @CirclesOffHQ, @FwdProgressHQ. Don't talk about it. Be about it.
Jeffrey Benson @JeffreyBenson12
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spanky @spanky
44K Followers 229 Following Pro Sports Bettor. Host of @BeBetterBettors. Created @bet_bash @spankodds and @theSGHOF. Betting Partner inquiries - DM @ChineseMike2.
Rufus @RufusPeabody
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Captain Jack Andrews @capjack2000
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Stuckey @Stuckey2
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Adam Chernoff @adamchernoff
58K Followers 400 Following 🏈 All things NFL betting for @RASPicks. Sign up for free year round betting emails in your inbox every Friday below. 👇
Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW
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Unabated @UnabatedSports
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Drew Dinsick @whale_capper
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Fabian Sommer @suuma810
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Steve Fezzik @FezzikSports
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Cris (lvc)🏈 @lasvegascris
17K Followers 193 Following NFL profit L/6y & Contest specialty.low volume/diverse tweets.Opinion/Strategy. Betting, a hard way to make an easy living. YouTube vids https://t.co/VzNk9X7sMa
Sportsbook Consiglier.. @SportsbkConsig
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Dave Mason @DaveMasonBOL
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Nick Kostos @TheKostos
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Michael Mannen @MrMannen1
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Yuge Yeti @YugeYeti
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Adam Criswell @DrBanjoIpresume
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Dan Flashes @DanFlashes98
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Sports Talk with Big .. @sportstalkbigo
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The Lapchick Appraisa.. @TheLapchickApp
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picksbet @DanielGood2255
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Losing Bettor @MinusEVBettor
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Tofu Tails // @tofu_tails
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Rough_Day @Seen_it_done_it
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Kaiten smith @kaitesmit
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Tom Morton @tmorton93
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Uncle Paulie’s Spor.. @PaulieTheBookie
42 Followers 663 Following New to X..Stop wasting your money on “handicappers” and start siding with the house. Get consistent winners by going against the worst gamblers around.
Joey Knish @JoeyKnish22
37K Followers 1K Following Gambling Twitter Degen. Grinding that rent money. As seen on @NBAonTNT. Called “basically a card counter” by Dave Portnoy. Always need accounts. @TheHammerHQ
Rob Pizzola @robpizzola
47K Followers 782 Following Pro sports bettor. Co-founder, CEO @TheHammerHQ. Co-owner @Betstamp. Co-host @CirclesOffHQ, @FwdProgressHQ. Don't talk about it. Be about it.
Jeffrey Benson @JeffreyBenson12
34K Followers 1K Following Director of Operations @CircaSports #BetJeff
spanky @spanky
44K Followers 229 Following Pro Sports Bettor. Host of @BeBetterBettors. Created @bet_bash @spankodds and @theSGHOF. Betting Partner inquiries - DM @ChineseMike2.
Rufus @RufusPeabody
51K Followers 745 Following Pro sports bettor. Co-founder @UnabatedSports and @MasseyPeabody analytics. Co-host @BetTheProcess. Rufus is a dog's name.
Captain Jack Andrews @capjack2000
36K Followers 388 Following Part of https://t.co/CYMsm4cvKT. However, my opinions are 100% my own. Nominated to be the Commissioner of Sports Betting by @beatingthebook.
Stuckey @Stuckey2
68K Followers 375 Following Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation. CFA®. OG @actionapp @actionnetworkhq ...Follow my bets for free here ➡️ https://t.co/m0TX5rJ4YG pod vm: 959-BAD-BEAT
Adam Chernoff @adamchernoff
58K Followers 400 Following 🏈 All things NFL betting for @RASPicks. Sign up for free year round betting emails in your inbox every Friday below. 👇
Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW
22K Followers 947 Following Director of Content for @Betsperts. The MN half of @DeepDivePod. Making newsletters about sports I like to bet. @BetspertsGolf Rabbit Holer.
Unabated @UnabatedSports
20K Followers 202 Following Bet Smarter. The tools and resources you need to become a winning sports bettor. Sign up for the Unabated Newsletter: https://t.co/ncbHoVBcCa
Drew Dinsick @whale_capper
52K Followers 1K Following NFL, NBA, Tennis Handicapper | Analyst for @NBCSportsBet, Bet The Edge Pod: https://t.co/IPGUUpfZjI and the Deep Dive podcast: https://t.co/JMHXP9ya4H
Fabian Sommer @suuma810
16K Followers 810 Following NFL bettor, passionate about stats and spreads. Content for @TheHammerHQ @FwdProgressHQ
Steve Fezzik @FezzikSports
81K Followers 2K Following Over 1.5 mil in Lifetime Contest Ws 2 Time (Back 2 Back) winner Westgate Supercontest #hiltoncontest,#pregame,#sportshandicapper,#sportsreviews,#sportsbooks
Cris (lvc)🏈 @lasvegascris
17K Followers 193 Following NFL profit L/6y & Contest specialty.low volume/diverse tweets.Opinion/Strategy. Betting, a hard way to make an easy living. YouTube vids https://t.co/VzNk9X7sMa
Sportsbook Consiglier.. @SportsbkConsig
31K Followers 970 Following Pittsburgh native, Penn Stater, Las Vegas sportsbook veteran oddsmaker, @CashConsidShow @BostonVsTheBook behind the counter. Sports gambling writer/host/analyst
Dave Mason @DaveMasonBOL
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Nick Kostos @TheKostos
43K Followers 3K Following Host @YouBetterYouBet @Audacy, M-F 3-7p ET (also carried @Stadium & @SiriusXM). Betting content for @BetMGM & @WestwoodOne. Founding Father of #wagertainment.
Mr. Liiiimited @MrLiimited
3K Followers 578 Following Limited somewhere, sharing how not to get limited elsewhere DMs open and happy to help you on your betting journey!
Andy Bloch @Andy_Bloch
30K Followers 2K Following ⚖️💉🇺🇦 Poker player. He/him. MIT blackjack Harvard Law https://t.co/WmzLOw6sMK https://t.co/Ooov4yXYd2 https://t.co/XHTRhKX008 https://t.co/FxkEfNl1Ad
SharpCast @Sharpcast_
876 Followers 647 Following LATIN PODCAST FOR SHARP BETTORS SPOTIFY👉https://t.co/3LhWEfHOiT YOUTUBE 👇
Philip @philipalex99
119 Followers 689 Following
Reilly @ValleyBlitz_15
542 Followers 288 Following Texas A&M Alumni, Sports Medicine Doc, Professional Sports Bettor
hagrinBPR @hagrinBPR
664 Followers 1 Following Sports Betting Podcast Reviews Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counteraccusations. @hagrin / Thx to Original BPR
Left Wing Lock @Left_Wing_Lock
25K Followers 529 Following Fantasy Hockey Draft Kits, iPhone App, Starting Goalies, Line Combos, Injury Updates, Player Rankings. Need help: [email protected]
Marie - Sports Bettin.. @MarieMoneyline
2K Followers 294 Following Personal Finance Nerd. I bet on sports as a side hustle :)
Jeremy Frank @MLBRandomStats
91K Followers 999 Following Data science @Cubs. Prev @Astros 💍, @baseball_ref, https://t.co/UpJoIzClVi and other things. Views my own.
Trench @Matthew_Trench
2K Followers 280 Following Owner of Anubis Trading Limited. I offer consulting on trading software and systems. Former spread betting & fixed odds bookmaker, syndicate trader & FX trader.
Elf @yElff_
5K Followers 513 Following $116,671 profit in 2024 🙌 | Live arbitrage sportsbetting ❤️| Formerly had $50,000 in FanDuel prison | https://t.co/r0adfx08DE (“Elf” for 35% off)
Units @PlayUnitsCo
3K Followers 493 Following
Bill Krackomberger @BillKrackman
50K Followers 2K Following Professional Sports Bettor. Advantage gambler @Foxsportsradio “Countdown To Kickoff” Seen on Action Showtime/VSIN/ESPN @Krackwins #Sportsbetting WiseKracks Pod
GoldenPants13 @goldenpants013
4K Followers 283 Following Sports Bettor | Trader 🏦 My mission? Making you the sportsbooks' worst customer 🫡 Discord is free & don't affiliate for SBs ⚖️
jacob fortinsky @j__fort
736 Followers 2K Following ceo @novig_app | @ycombinator @harvard @orangecollectv | techno-optimist | ✡️
Nathan W Pyle @nathanwpyle
301K Followers 3K Following Married to @tayloralexypyle / #1 NYT Bestseller: Strange Planet / NYT Bestseller: NYC Basic Tips and Etiquette / formerly @BuzzFeed / I follow Jesus
Gino BetOpenly.com @Gino_BetOpenly
8K Followers 3K Following Founder Of https://t.co/UnBBlVDsGB Only 1% Juice, Always! 🤙🏽 Please Email: [email protected] 🙏🏽 Not DMs
Nick Bakay @NickBakay4real
12K Followers 436 Following Football Sage, Talking Cat, Writer, Actor, Ginge with a whole lotta soul
ESPN BET @ESPNBet
5.4M Followers 1K Following @espn's home for all things sports betting. Submit videos by DM for a chance to be featured! Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Abnormally Distribute.. @AbnormallyDist
6K Followers 368 Following Recession proof. Had my jesus piece since 94. Somehow still winning without betting soft book openers. I don't need you to hit a button to follow me.
Matt Ferguson @FergieFerg219
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Tabbitha @BradleyTabbitha
913 Followers 834 Following Head of Marketing and Customer Success @stx_app
Eddie Drnkyourmlkshk @walls_edward
5K Followers 927 Following Dog dad. Cfb/Nba nerd. I tell jokes if you need one, music lover, friend to anyone who needs one. Dms open if you need to talk. +EV bettor.
Nolan Dalla - Try to .. @DallaWriter
2K Followers 2K Following Ex-State Department FSO; AmEmBucharest; former-Media Director World Series of Poker; ex-PR Director Binions Horseshoe; Writer; NFL Analyst-Gambler; Texas Grad.
ev @PlusEVOntario
512 Followers 32 Following
Prime Sports @primesportsbook
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Marcus DiNitto @MarcusDiNitto
2K Followers 2K Following Managing sports betting content @sportingnews for Catena Media. Former managing editor @GamingTodayNews @sbjsbd @TheLinemakers. Sports betting, sports business.
Josh @callcustservice
3K Followers 528 Following Professional Sports Bettor. Husband. Father of 4. Dms open for betting partnerships.
ProfessorChuckFinley @professor042
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Sportsbook Confidenti.. @SportsConfident
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1K Followers 3K Following Sports betting & craft beer podcast pursuing the best in props & hops | Hosted by @LayOfTheLandes | 'Cause every hand's a winner, and every hand's a loser
Thomas Viola 🦥 @TVatWork
4K Followers 1K Following Associate Director of Content for @UnabatedSports | Syracuse 🍊Alum '17 | Former Guinness World Record Holder | Sloth Enthusiast 🦥
Alex Jacoby @AJacoby12
202 Followers 664 Following Jack of many gambling trades, but god I'd like to be the master of one | @JskeltsLolBot Swing hard, fall short. It's all part of the plan.
horse racing: a beautiful sport with tons of hard-to-model features, high uncertainty [unseen matchups] & a betting market that allows for scale [many races, decent or even very good liquidity] simply superior.
@PlusEVAnalytics Dont forget that you you also just bought the 98 Suzuki 2 months ago and it had a massive price tag
If this happened today ESPN would make us listen to people tell us why this is ok and good.
On April 25th, almost 50 years ago Rick Monday saved the colors from being burned by some clownshoes commies. Rick still owns the flag and has rejected multi-million dollar offers for it. He brings it to veteran charity fundraisers. Be more like Rick Monday.
Actuaries pretty much ARE aliens when it comes to this.
@FezzikSports I’m aware. Unless you’re an alien, we’re subject to the same evolutionary forces as everyone else.
@EVBetsMA @PlusEVAnalytics Yeah but our brains are particularly awful at the extreme tail ends of probabilities. A 95% event is 50 times more likely to not happen than a 99.9% event and we’re just not able to intuitively ever get there without writing out the math
@MrLiimited @PlusEVAnalytics Honestly…people are pretty bad at estimating if something is even “more likely than not” to happen. Humans are TERRIBLE at estimating probability of events occurring.
@PlusEVAnalytics Even above 95% the human brain is not really up to the task
I have so many Gregg Jefferies Donruss rated rookie cards. Back then I thought I'd retire off them.
Two things you rarely see: 1) Lindor crushing two home runs in a game 2) A throwback Gregg Jefferies jersey in the crowd Both awesome.
"If I make this bet, I will win x% of the time. That is enough to make it a profitable bet." Advantage gambling is the best way to hammer this way of thinking into your head. And it applies to so many other areas of life. If you can win gambling, you have a leg up elsewhere.
@RoxyLasVegas @spanky It is absolutely wild to think about how much my generation takes the ease of access to information for granted. I’ve never known a time where I couldn’t readily find the answer to any question or stat
Remembering that time @JoeyKnish22 and @robpizzola did a podcast and said I was one of the worst follows on here now (def not wrong) and Joey complained about no more awards bets and he missed the only one I made this year and we binked Naz 6th Man
Let’s do this. Also I have an unreasonable amount of Wolves hopium this season I deserve all of the lols.
@PlusEVAnalytics @RufusPeabody A weird golf event that is easy to adjust a simulator for would represent an additional advantage for sharps imo. In this case, my sim can’t be easily adjusted to handle this event. If that’s true for other sharps too, I reckon playing field will be levelled.
@PlusEVAnalytics i think we are the only two people over the age of 12 that use these pencils
@PlusEVAnalytics @Saramek21 I would generally argue they give sharps probably more of an edge. You have a small data problem that is modelable.
@PlusEVAnalytics @Saramek21 What I meant to say is that you can build a monte carlo sim to handle the different rules
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