Rufus @RufusPeabody
Pro sports bettor. Co-founder @UnabatedSports and @MasseyPeabody analytics. Co-host @BetTheProcess. Rufus is a dog's name. unabated.com Las Vegas, NV Joined January 2012-
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There absolutely should be a discount rate. Now is universally preferable to later for us as humans across all areas. It’s more valuable for fanbases. Same with owners (they’re mostly old & could die). AND you have misaligned incentives btwn GM & org. GM’s job depends more on…
There absolutely should be a discount rate. Now is universally preferable to later for us as humans across all areas. It’s more valuable for fanbases. Same with owners (they’re mostly old & could die). AND you have misaligned incentives btwn GM & org. GM’s job depends more on…
I guess the first date idea me and @Jennifur85 pioneered in 2014 is catching on tumblr.com/jennifur85/105…
I guess the first date idea me and @Jennifur85 pioneered in 2014 is catching on tumblr.com/jennifur85/105…
Orioles and Ravens been doing this for a few years and it’s so smart. So much can be learned from observing another organization’s process.
Orioles and Ravens been doing this for a few years and it’s so smart. So much can be learned from observing another organization’s process.
This was such a fantastic listen, the humility conveyed by @bcmassey in forecasting is unmatched - strongly encourage everyone to listen to this before the draft tomorrow
This was such a fantastic listen, the humility conveyed by @bcmassey in forecasting is unmatched - strongly encourage everyone to listen to this before the draft tomorrow
On this week's @BetTheProcess we talk NFL draft & decision-making w/ Wharton professor @bcmassey, who's worked with NFL teams for 2 decades. He talks about overconfidence, how to blend expert opinions, and how to have influence at an organizational level. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet…
@RufusPeabody @BetTheProcess @bcmassey Who’s better than Cade Massey? NOBODY
Pod is live! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet…
For those of you who listened to last week's @BetTheProcess with Eno Sarris...
For those of you who listened to last week's @BetTheProcess with Eno Sarris...
Really excited about this week's @BetTheProcess that Jeff & I just recorded with my mentor @bcmassey discussing NFL draft decision-making and organizational decision-making in general. Lots of broader lessons from this one. Should drop tonight.
I know the popular take is that Scottie Scheffler is the best player in the game by a mile, but I think he’s just gotten really lucky for the past year or so
A lovely Friday evening at the @YaleClubNYC, having a beer and running golf code (in the grill room, where it's allowed), with some smooth live jazz in the background. Life is good.
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." How I feel about a lot of y'alls opinions on Jontay Porter.
Fascinating conversation with @enosarris touching on bat speed, stuff+, player development, clubhouse chemistry, and where to look if you're trying to get ahead of the market.
Fascinating conversation with @enosarris touching on bat speed, stuff+, player development, clubhouse chemistry, and where to look if you're trying to get ahead of the market.
I'm sure this will be a super unpopular take, but I 100% agree with Matt. The SGPs with fringe players create incentives that ultimately lead to the Jontay Porter situations of the world. This problem isn't going away.
I'm sure this will be a super unpopular take, but I 100% agree with Matt. The SGPs with fringe players create incentives that ultimately lead to the Jontay Porter situations of the world. This problem isn't going away.
The proliferation of gambling 100% has an impact. But it being above board & regulated -- with operators and leagues having a stake in the integrity of the games & wagers not being compromised -- helps offset that to some extent. However, the US betting landscape has created…
The proliferation of gambling 100% has an impact. But it being above board & regulated -- with operators and leagues having a stake in the integrity of the games & wagers not being compromised -- helps offset that to some extent. However, the US betting landscape has created…
This is about what I'd expect. Sharpest people are gonna be the ones betting in the 10k-100k range. The 100k+ guys are the ones operators fight over (though this may not apply w ST, but the 100k+ trades are probably into very mature markets at post) . Could we see ROI% for each?
This is about what I'd expect. Sharpest people are gonna be the ones betting in the 10k-100k range. The 100k+ guys are the ones operators fight over (though this may not apply w ST, but the 100k+ trades are probably into very mature markets at post) . Could we see ROI% for each?
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We really need to have a national conversation on the difference between top ten picks, day two picks, and day three picks. The relative cost differential between them is larger than people realize.
Jordan Love, Russell Wilson, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Patrick Mahomes were all drafted when their team already had established starter (or had just signed/drafted someone to be that). Taking shots when you aren't sure if you have The Guy is probably good
@canzhiye @RufusPeabody @BetTheProcess @bcmassey If you play motivational videos on the same computer that your model is training it’ll improve the error many don’t know this
@RufusPeabody @mixedknuts @canzhiye If I had to guess, I would say the thing that is "most wrong" about current draft frameworks is that they rely pretty heavily on the assumption of expected surplus value accumulation being a universally correct objective function Optimal strategy is probably team specific. If…
6. I know who my friends are. If you need to drink to enjoy a person or thing—then you don’t actually enjoy that person or thing. I had the epiphany that if I’m bored hanging out with certain people… I should stop being friends with those people.
@paulipoodle It showed up on my timeline once too often. It has to do with the difference between rankings and ratings. The rating between 1-100 is larger than the rating between 101-300.
This is no way excuses enormous reaches on the first two days of the draft. But taking someone with the 160th pick who wasn't on most draft boards isn't a blunder. You just have to know what you're doing and why he wasn't on the boards.
I love draft boards more than most people. The idea of using "delta from a consensus draft board" to judge drafts has an issue. There is a much bigger gap from 1-50 than there is from 51-100, and so on. There isn't much separating the 210th prospect from the 260th. (1/2)
Reaching for a prospect in rounds 5-7 can make a ton of sense if you are incorporating information that the analysts putting together the public draft boards have missed. This will be most common when players are coming from abroad, or smaller schools that are difficult to scout.
@InvestorBettor @historyinmemes I love snow but wet sand is the best song from this album
@sprotzbettor You know rex originates the shit out of this league
@RufusPeabody @SCooney3 @JeffreyBenson12 I learned my lesson when at Caesars with open DMs
@canzhiye @RufusPeabody @BetTheProcess The thing I’m prolly most confident about in the world is that people run overconfident. And yes, that worries me (a bit) sometimes. ;)
@imattf Never opened or used an account in my wife's, friends' or family's name. You don't know me one bit. I don't need your respect and I don't need you to think I am honest.
Chargers fans who wanted them so badly to hire Jim Harabaugh and are mad he picked the best offensive lineman seem like the type of who would want to go the best steakhouse in town and complain about the lack of chicken options on the menu⚡️
Finished up my #sportsanalytics methods course today with final project presentations and some betting content (nice materials @UnabatedSports), but one group had this as their final slide (photo by @qntkhvn) - I love my job
This was great. Always listen to @bcmassey on the NFL Draft.
On this week's @BetTheProcess we talk NFL draft & decision-making w/ Wharton professor @bcmassey, who's worked with NFL teams for 2 decades. He talks about overconfidence, how to blend expert opinions, and how to have influence at an organizational level. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet…
This was the best piece of content I consumed during the 2024 NFL Draft cycle. Simply outstanding
On this week's @BetTheProcess we talk NFL draft & decision-making w/ Wharton professor @bcmassey, who's worked with NFL teams for 2 decades. He talks about overconfidence, how to blend expert opinions, and how to have influence at an organizational level. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet…
"You don't want to trade down too far" is a draft season pet peeve of mine. It's just anchoring bias.