hagrinBPR @hagrinBPR
Sports Betting Podcast Reviews Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counteraccusations. @hagrin / Thx to Original BPR Contrarianville, USA Joined December 2023-
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Circles Off - VegasHorsePools - 6.75/10 open.spotify.com/episode/2aiJQP… Very good storyteller. 1st hour stories, last hour more current day, SpankOdds tidbits, proxy service. Seems like the guy to introduce yourself to at BetBash. RIP Dink was happy to hear the mentions, ty VHP.
Bet the Process - Cade Massey - 6.5/10 open.spotify.com/episode/1nMBVW… Cade is smart as usual. If you're overly familiar w/Cade's work like I am, not much new here, but still good. More for people not super familiar with Cade's work & how it applies to drafts & organization building.
Business of Betting - Ep 210 Matthew Trenhaile - 5.5/10 open.spotify.com/episode/7ok2i2… Pod is a very intellectual, mechanical back & forth about exchange operation. Two smart guys talking inside industry specifics. Good pod, just not going to resonate w/a very wide audience.
Deep Dive Gambling - Draft Day's Eve - NG open.spotify.com/episode/4HULv8… No grade b/c I have consumed 100s of hours of draft talk, hard to be original. 19:13 - "Two of our very good information friends come through and say JJ is NE's pick at 3." That's the money shot.
BBK Ep 138 - The Return of the Green Knight - No Grade youtube.com/watch?v=gAg6mm… This isn't really a sports betting pod, this is a lot of just straight NFL talk. Wasn't going to review it, but I ended up taking a bunch of notes so I'll post it. Seth's process always helps mine.
RASPicks - NFL Draft Twitter Space w/Travis - 7/10 Not sure about a replay link. I did the best I could I am not a stenographer & I took 2 phone calls during it. There's a few tidbits in there I think. JJ under, Fuaga under (its moved) the big ones, but some playable stuff.
Bet the Process - Eno Sarris - 7/10 open.spotify.com/episode/2OENDV… MLB focused. Eno was great although sound quality is a car phone from 1993, but he delivers a high density of info in a short period. Eno starts at 10 mins. Hosts address SplashSportsGate 4 mins in.
Business of Betting - Ep 209 - Dillon Borgida - 5/10 open.spotify.com/episode/49ceMT… 2nd Dillon pod in short time so not as good as Risk Takers pod due to length IMO. A few nuggets in this one though mainly in the back & forth between Jason (no VIP presence at Smarkets) and Dillon.
Zero Latency - Ep 29 - Jackpocket - 3/10 open.spotify.com/episode/0T22eH… Wasn't going to review this one b/c it's iGaming/casino & not sports, but thought it was a very clear outline on how users are being marketed to when it comes to casino app options. Mainly that first 7 mins.
Yup, 100% on me total brain fart while on the treadmill this morning sorry about that Jason/Preston. Not sure how to handle errata since they are images other than quote tweets.
Yup, 100% on me total brain fart while on the treadmill this morning sorry about that Jason/Preston. Not sure how to handle errata since they are images other than quote tweets.
Circles Off - Ep149 - Best/Worst of Gambling Twitter - 8/10 open.spotify.com/episode/7hVvoy… Strictly entertainment, but highest graded entertainment pod I've reviewed so far. Pizz & Knish tremendous rapport esp for a remote show. Jokes A++, lists are fine, start there and pare down.
Unabated - Modeling for Beginners - 2/10 open.spotify.com/episode/4Chin2… Just go to the guy's Youtube, skip the pod. For absolute Day 0/1 beginners. Checked out the Youtube it's fine, click Playlists & start there.
Moving the Sticks - QB Draft Scenarios - 6.5/10 open.spotify.com/episode/7rPWMn… Not going to do a lot of these, but thought this would be a good supplement for golf pods I would be skipping. 1st pod to cover QB scenarios properly IMO. Also, one good Penix scenario I hadn't considered.
Deep Dive Gambling - Solving Masters in 90 - 7/10 open.spotify.com/episode/518TyL… I know nothing about golf. Wasn't going to review any golf pods hence why review is "late". However, I thought Drew brought up two interesting data issues when modeling that's worth it, but what do I know?
Football Analytics - Ryan O'Hanlon - 4/10 open.spotify.com/episode/7jRVpW… Soccer, UCL preview. I've never read Ryan's book, but I put it on my list after this. Almost felt like Ryan was holding back from being too technical & kept it pretty high level for Ed's audience.
Bet the Process - Rufus is Back - 6.75/10 open.spotify.com/episode/2O1axv… 1st 38 minutes covers a bunch of interesting modeling topics, really enjoyed. 38 mins Jordan section starts, similar quick hits on the 2 NCAAM Final 4 games.
Deep Dive - This is April - 4/10 open.spotify.com/episode/6A1GUx… Early April content. Colts schedule good angle. 59 min good tennis convo for those tennis bettors best content in pod. I blacked out during the Josh Allen trade discussion.
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Irrelevant Pseudo Qua.. @hagrin
1K Followers 194 Following Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counteraccusations. Developer / Ultrarunner / Sports Analytics / Cornell U. / #EISBU / Legit top right boogeyman
@hagrinBPR Yeah I think with this set of guests it's probably hard to be blown away bc its Cade / Roof who have probably done like 20+ hours on similar topics across BTP / Wharton MB before outside of even his academic work. But did think it was excellent content anyway
@hagrinBPR The social consensus is "Top Down vs Bottom Up - What is the Best Betting Strategy for You?!!" Or "Former Trader on How to STOP Getting Limited!". We need more oldhead podcasts talking about filling boxes on Betfair in 2005
@hagrinBPR Certainly makes sense to focus on the draft stuff. I think it was around 1:18:00
@hagrinBPR I’ve talked to some peers on the best way to implement it and I haven’t really found a consensus. Bucketing pitchers to simulate ABs seems to be somewhat agreeable
@hagrinBPR Thru a baseball ops lens, what Eno is saying is true. You can get a sense of a players swing decision/ swing path in as little as ~ 50 PAs. But trying to use these metrics in a betting model that requires predictive value can get complicated fast
@ShipTheJustice @NFLPinnacleBeat @SethBurn @kjhogo @HeHateMe2_0 “but je… jeff” “ruf… rufus. it’s this notion right. it’s this notion that when people see a 45k prize pool, they expect 45k in payouts” “jeff i un.. i understand that” “when it’s a lot less… i mean fewer. no, less. fewer?” “i think it’s less” “anyways how did the masters…
@hagrinBPR Thank u for being receptive to feedback
@Matthew_Trench @hagrinBPR The elephant in the room for anyone presenting the wild profitability and success of 365 strategy is the infinite pit of dark money they get
@hagrinBPR Similar stuff here theguardian.com/society/2014/o…
@Matthew_Trench @goldenpants013 @giantsbadgers @hagrinBPR thats a correlated parlay trench
@hagrinBPR businessinsider.com/inside-the-wor… this is the regularly cited common piece. There are other similar ones.
@hagrinBPR Burned probably 3 months of my life added up over the last 20 years discussing this in pubs with people. Even people very high up at 365 have been unable to confirm to me what the mirror sites generate. Literally impossible for me to figure out and I put effort in.
@Matthew_Trench @hagrinBPR Only nitpick on the excellent would be that it was actually Deep Dive’s episode 340 which was the most entertaining, and not the Circles Off one 😜
@hagrinBPR had high hopes... disappointing but not surprising
@hagrinBPR I remember Haslam... sethburn.wordpress.com/2018/02/20/wab…
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