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EPISODE 144 PRESENTED BY @Pinnacle🚨 @robpizzola and Johnny from @betstamp discuss the player prop market, top-down approach, odds screens, and much more... ➡️ youtu.be/zqmbccixMi0
REMINDER🚨 There will be a LIVE Circles Off tomorrow at 1PM ET with @robpizzola and Johnny from @betstamp to recap SBLVIII... Subscribe now so you don't miss out: youtube.com/live/j_BN-6w0N…
Trying to corner the CPOY market:
Another bet365 banger found using our props tool! 🔨 🏀 Nicholas Claxton Over 27.5 PRA (+115) As you can see in the screenshot attached, you can actually GUARANTEE profit by playing both this and the under 28.5 on Pinnacle, with the chance of winning both! 🤑 Let’s ride!! 📈
🏀 Max Strus Over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130 at bet365) Yes, you’re laying -130 here, but the juice is well worth the squeeze! 🧃 Our projection (based off historical market data) has this 7th R+A worth 11.7% in terms of probability… So based on our fair value calculation,…
🏀 Bradley Beal Under 4.5 Assists (+120 at bet365) The fair value based on our weighted market aggregate is +109, meaning this is just over 5% expected value! This may not seem like a lot, but if you’re able to consistently make bets like this rooted in market data, your…
🏈 Devin Singletary First TD (+1200 at DK) Fair value +867. Let’s see if we can hit two of these in a row! 5 minutes to get your bet in. Let’s ride!
Brevin Jordan Under 1.5 Receptions (-115 at bet365) 🔨 Fair value -136 based on a weighted devig. Fanduel has +124 on the over. Game starts in 5 minutes. Would play all the way down to -130! Let’s gooo!! 📈
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Easy💰
Update - it lost
Hard to see how this bet loses now! 🤷♂️
Hard to see how this bet loses now! 🤷♂️ https://t.co/HndrHVB5BO
🏈 Stefon Diggs Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-125) PointsBet / Fanatics way off market here…😳 Who’s riding?!
@ Ontario Bettors 📣 🔨 🏈 George Pickens Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-120 Proline) Our fair value on this is roughly -160. Would not expect this to last longer than 5 minutes after this is shared ⚠️
Rob Pizzola @robpizzola
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Interesting point that I’ve thought about a lot. If my model is way off, I can almost always find some piece of information that is causing that (injury, etc). There’s always value to knowing limitations of your model and information you aren’t quantifying. I don’t think anyone…
Am I dumb or are they old: I've heard successful older sports bettors say "I make a number on a game and if my number differs from the market by X% or more, I bet. When the difference is larger, my bet is larger" That might've worked then, but I'm very skeptical that works now
Just hours way from tonight’s #CFFC131. You can still bet 11 of the 12 fights (not sure why Mark Grey vs Vilson Ndregjoni isn’t offered) via BetMGM. Check bit.ly/BetWith4oz to see if BetMGM is offered in your state (as well as other sportsbooks offers that may be avail)
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José Berríos: "I’m still building myself and my ability. God gave me the blessing to play this beautiful sport. Now, I have to work hard every day and enjoy every pitch.” #BlueJays
Total closed 222.5 and the game landed 221. Fans get free chicken. Over bettors get mad.
This is funny as heck in a game the Rockets were about to win in LA, The fans were cheering when Boban missed his first free-throw, because if the opposition misses two in a row, the fans get free chicken. So watch what Boban does. I love Boban!
@SpinninBackfist Him punching a fan is funny af lol
Fuck yeah it would.. But also today you would have been suspended for being on Testosterone. #TRT #Antidoping
This mighta won tonight’s $300k bonus. #UFC300
There was a precisely 0% chance #UFC300 could ever live up to the lofty hype. Even if it was great, the hype going in was unreal. Yet… somehow…UFC 300 lived up to the hype and perhaps even exceeded it. A truly incredible night for UFC and the sport of MMA.
@losgatostrader @AbcpokerBI @RufusPeabody @sporttrade_app Got it. It’s quite easy. Morikawa “No” price is -435. That’s roughly 81.3%. Take the total potential return of your “Yes” 60/1 bet, multiply it by 81.3%, and bet that amount. So for example if you had bet $100 at 60/1, your potential return is $6,100. Bet 81.3% x $6,100 =…
What was the bet?
Zhang Weilli will be the first time in UFC history to win twice in one fight because @JasonHerzogMMA is fucking retarded. #UFC300Live #UFC300 #weili
Aljo was getting up and clapping at the press conference when Dana announced the 300k bonuses as if he’d be in the conversation 😂 #UFC300
Who the hell goes im up 4-1 and then calls center against justin gaethje to give him a chance? A BMF
That was a Top 1 sports moment for me and I watch a fuckton of sports. Omg.