Cato The Censor @Paul_AQRM
Macro trader looking for market asymmetries, fiat bear, FX Jedi. Solitary reserve USD delenda est. Believer in humanity, blocker of IYIs. Pacifist. Milky Way Joined May 2017-
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Looks like it was exactly that. 🤡🌎
Not really. 2 major reasons: 1. Yen is "crashing" because in a world of rising commodity (especially oil) $-prices, Japan's trade balance will implode and will do so very fast. and 2. Yen is a source of cheap funding relative to US (the short position is huge).
Not really. 2 major reasons: 1. Yen is "crashing" because in a world of rising commodity (especially oil) $-prices, Japan's trade balance will implode and will do so very fast. and 2. Yen is a source of cheap funding relative to US (the short position is huge).
The pressure is on the one whose currency (and collateral) is not being used anymore, not the other way round. Unless military pressure is implied and good luck with that.
The pressure is on the one whose currency (and collateral) is not being used anymore, not the other way round. Unless military pressure is implied and good luck with that.
All that drama in USDJPY while Gold and Oil couldn't care less.
Inflation relates to purchasing power, not cross-rate in an economy which has a positive net investing position. Japanese foreign assets are increasing in value faster than the yen inflates (at CPI YoY at 2.7%). Humans don't get FX.
The idea that China is somehow dependent on trade with Japan is a fallacy. It's an important trading partner but their imports and exports are very close in nominal values, as cross-rate changes this, so will the patterns in trade. China will basically buy less goods. That's it.
The idea that China is somehow dependent on trade with Japan is a fallacy. It's an important trading partner but their imports and exports are very close in nominal values, as cross-rate changes this, so will the patterns in trade. China will basically buy less goods. That's it.
It's all China's fault! Trust me, bro.
Nope.
Does she think she's still at the Fed?
😂😂"So what?"
Cato The Censor retweeted
Frequent counterpoint: "Europe's fiscal position is worse than the US's." Druckenmiller: "Actually, the US fiscal gap is 3x worse than France, the poster child for social welfare and all that stuff... and we can't cut anything without deficit/GDP going up instead of down."
Yes.
Ummm...
The epitome of a rhetorical question. 👇
The hits keep coming. 👇
Totally normal. Value play clearly. 🤡🌎
The world is split into two systems. One still believes the UST is the sole reserve collateral, the other says it's gold and oil. I wonder which one will succeed. Nah, I'm not really wondering, frens, it's obvious. 🤡🌎
Me too.
Losses are lessons.
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