Simon French @Frencheconomics
Chief Economist & Head of Research @panmuregordon Former @cabinetofficeuk @dwp. 🏏 @hmtreasury. @thetimes columnist. 🚴♀️ tours & 🐝-keeping. Views are my own London Joined February 2012-
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Plenty of reasons you might not want public sector productivity to rise (higher class sizes etc.) but to have it lower than in 1997 given the technology advances in delivering services that has taken place is a truly awful track record.
The most important challenge for the next government is to turn this round. At present, we are paying more tax to get less. And it's holding back growth in national income. Totally unacceptable.
The most important challenge for the next government is to turn this round. At present, we are paying more tax to get less. And it's holding back growth in national income. Totally unacceptable.
March saw third highest outflows from UK equity strategies since early 2016 according to the IA. Illustrates the lack of fuel for UK valuations to be internationally competitive. Coutts preparing to reduce UK exposure on 2 large funds from 25% to 2.6%, & 17.8% to 1.9% during Q2.
March saw third highest outflows from UK equity strategies since early 2016 according to the IA. Illustrates the lack of fuel for UK valuations to be internationally competitive. Coutts preparing to reduce UK exposure on 2 large funds from 25% to 2.6%, & 17.8% to 1.9% during Q2. https://t.co/m5cNIT7WUx
Three takeaways for me from last night’s Federal Reserve statement federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre… and press conference. Firstly this was a holding pattern statement ahead of the June meeting - at which point there will be a new Summary of Economic Projections. Any temptation to remove…
The Yen has fallen back to almost where it was before Sunday night's intervention. The only way to mount a serious defense of the Yen is to allow long-term yields in Japan to rise. Japan can't do that because its debt is so high. Japan's supposedly harmless debt is now a trap...
Spot on. If there is a legacy of this period (I hope) it will be a shift towards annualised reporting of price changes where there are big base effects - more commonplace in the US. Focus on annual rates led to misinterpretation last year in UK - & risks again as CPI undershoots
Spot on. If there is a legacy of this period (I hope) it will be a shift towards annualised reporting of price changes where there are big base effects - more commonplace in the US. Focus on annual rates led to misinterpretation last year in UK - & risks again as CPI undershoots
Build. More. Homes.
Ken calling time on MMT. Bingo card for 2024 is filling up fast.
Ken calling time on MMT. Bingo card for 2024 is filling up fast.
Peak base effects in UK retail prices - we won’t get a decent read on the underlying run rate for consumer prices until the end of the year. Timing of energy cost peak a big difference between the UK and other major economies
Peak base effects in UK retail prices - we won’t get a decent read on the underlying run rate for consumer prices until the end of the year. Timing of energy cost peak a big difference between the UK and other major economies
Written for @thetimes on our new project with @RobertJenrick & @NeilDotObrien - how to build an immigration system that's more selective, higher quality and less open to abuse. (Key suggestion: cap both overall numbers and individual migration routes.) thetimes.co.uk/article/camero…
This summit illustrates recognition that something needs to be done. But if it’s an “education piece" on merits of public versus private equity/foreign listing then that suggests naivety - and outsized influence of LSEG that has pushed this line. news.sky.com/story/hunt-cal…
This summit illustrates recognition that something needs to be done. But if it’s an “education piece" on merits of public versus private equity/foreign listing then that suggests naivety - and outsized influence of LSEG that has pushed this line. news.sky.com/story/hunt-cal…
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At one point the market was pricing in 167bps of cuts out of the Fed this year (~6.5 cuts), post THAT December FOMC meeting Now only 40bps (~ barely 2 cuts) priced for the year
@Frencheconomics And massively increase the Japanese weighting. Sort of UK to Jap switch. US weighting stays around the same. New CIO.
@Frencheconomics It is feeling better out there for sure...would like to think that the April number will be +ve for UK flows... crossing fingers for Calastone data next week
@Frencheconomics Thoughtful analysis @Frencheconomics .
Batteries are killing the duck
In 2024, natural gas generation on an average April day in California hit a 7-year low. This is a significant trend reversal from what we saw from 2021 to 2023 in CAISO.
I think the international perception is that Japan is still an export-oriented nation with a trade surplus, driving a current account surplus. But that's now way out of date - the trade surplus is not very reliable at all any more, and the CA surplus is driven by primary income.
@Frencheconomics hits the nail on the head again.
@Frencheconomics Good read Simon . As a holder of DARK nice to see the uplift from the bid but would rather continue to have the skin in the game . The Hedge fund making the bid has obviously seen the value and no doubt will be rewarding the management sufficiently for recommending the offer
@Frencheconomics Great thread. But surely “industrial strategy” is blind to whether company is listed or privately owned? Or are you saying the levers are harder to pull? (Can see that if owners are all foreign — but even then it’s about aligning incentives).
@Frencheconomics Excellent thread as ever. Massive 🐂 here. Hope you’re well.
While personal income accelerated to a robust 0.5% MoM in March (in line, 0.3% prev), spending rose by more, increasing 0.8% (vs. 0.6% est, 0.8% prev). @KoyfinCharts
Great thread from @Frencheconomics
Some thoughts on the latest events in UK public equity markets after another week of bids - most notably for Darktrace & Anglo American. There are many more in the pipeline. A long🧵(1/15),,,,
A good thread.
Some thoughts on the latest events in UK public equity markets after another week of bids - most notably for Darktrace & Anglo American. There are many more in the pipeline. A long🧵(1/15),,,,
@Frencheconomics This is on the money. Unless there's change, great British companies are going to continue to be bought by overseas predators picking up bargains. We need someone with the wisdom, experience and guts of Anthony Bolton to lead a UK sovereign wealth fund now- not in a year.
@Gerald_Ashley @Frencheconomics @Cebr_uk That's very generous. But I've had 50 years of opining on things. That's enough and it would be surprising if a 51st year would have made much difference. Time to pay attention to my @Cebr_uk colleagues, to @ShankerASingham and the @TheGrowthComm and others.
Some excellent points on the undervaluation of UK #equities... 🤓
Some thoughts on the latest events in UK public equity markets after another week of bids - most notably for Darktrace & Anglo American. There are many more in the pipeline. A long🧵(1/15),,,,
@Frencheconomics I agree with this. It's possibly well meaning but the excessive burden of regulation on lots of irrelevant matters makes listing in the UK incredibly off putting. Just ask anyone sitting on a FTSE company board how they spend their time