Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

All views and opinions expressed are my own, not my employer. Dubai, UAE Joined August 2019

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

GBP/USD client sentiment shifts from majority buy to slight sell after the latest price gains, after already shifting prior in EUR/USD (sell 57%), and not far off doing so in AUD/USD (slight buy 54%). As for USD/JPY, still in heavy sell territory. #FX $EUR $GBP $AUD $JPY

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IG Singapore @IG_Singapore

2 years ago

Two consecutive dull sessions have done little to key technical indicators, and traders in the recent past have reduced their buy bias. @Monte_IG writes: ig.com/sg/news-and-tr…

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

@Fongern_FX Basing off pricing data then less, if looking at the heavy Treasury supply in an election year and relatively dovish FOMC twists required to accommodate that then more rate cuts. It'll be back and forth until one is too difficult to ignore, that's when the realization sets in.

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

RBA hold that's seen $AUD/USD move lower, helping slight sell IG clients who had just shifted from the middle to short 53% (they've been selling into price gains, blue-dotted line below as % long, left axis). It hurts in the $ASX 200 as price rose, taking sell bias to heavy 72%.

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

The notable pullback in $WTI's price last week has taken the majority buy bias among retail traders into heavy long territory, jumping week-on-week from 61% to 72%. CoT speculators are slowly unwinding their net heavy long bias. Link: ig.com/content/dam/pu… #Oil #OOTT

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Ahead of the #FOMC policy announcement, client sentiment majority buy against the dollar in: $EUR/USD 59% (image) $GBP 56% $JPY 75% (i.e., majority sell USD/JPY) $CAD 68% $AUD 72% $CHF the exception, they're 50%/50% In other words, they'd prefer a less hawkish Powell today. #FX

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Relief for traders in Tesla on the price gains in its share price over the past week, up over a third and helping extreme buy traders that had been stuck into unwinding. The bias is still heavy to the buy side with plenty of longs initiated at higher price levels. $TSLA

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Volatile moves in #USDJPY befitting its volatile technical overview, already messing about with this week's weekly levels. The divergence is clear between client sentiment extreme sell at 83% that anticipated the 150 line would eventually hold, vs. CoT that opted to buy in. $JPY

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

First key shift after the recent USD pullback, retail traders bought into EUR/USD's dip and it has paid off, sentiment has shifted amongst them from majority buy 56% yesterday morning (and a heavy 67% Tuesday when it reached the lower 1.07s) to majority short 56%. $EUR #FX

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Price at the upper end of the channel in $WTI, traders nervous about whether it'll hold but also regarding what's in store on the geopolitical front. Retail traders are still majority sell but very near the middle at 53%. Link: ig.com/content/dam/pu… #Oil #OOTT

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

The dollar gains after the rise in yield differentials have meant retail buy bias for those against have risen, $EUR now heavy buy 67% from 59% yesterday (image) $GBP heavy buy 66% $NZD heavy buy 73% $AUD extreme buy 79% $JPY extreme buy 83% #FX $USD

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

The unwind in CoT speculator long bias continues when it comes to EUR/USD (green-dotted line, left axis, % long), falling from 58% to 55%. Retail traders already shifted recently from majority short to majority buy after the consecutive weekly declines. $EUR #EURUSD #FX

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Gold is one of those places where it's rare to get majority short bias amongst retail traders, who are looking for a chance to shift back to the buy side. They remain majority buy in silver (64%), heavy long platinum (75%), and highest in palladium (89%). $XAU $XAG #Preciousmetal

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Conformist buy-breakouts in gold already enjoying plenty on the move beyond today's 1st Resistance level and closer to the 2nd R, snippet from this morning's Daily Market Report. Link: ig.com/content/dam/pu… #XAUUSD #Gold $XAU

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

One of the largest divergences on the #FX front between retail traders who are extreme buy 80% and CoT speculators who have recently taken it to extreme sell 79% is in $AUD (image). They're on opposite sides in $CAD (sell 64% vs. buy 64%), in $NDZ extreme buy retail vs 50/50 CoT.

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Market pricing (LSEG) prior to the SNB rate cut surprise via majority anticipated a hold that kept the door open, prior to the event retail traders were holding a heavy buy 70% bias in USD/CHF having raised it from 63% yesterday buying on the FOMC dip. #FX $CHF

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

For those interested in a breakdown of gold's weekly and daily technical overview, levels, and strategies. There's also the matter of retail traders who have recently shifted to majority short, a rarity when it comes to the precious metal. #Gold $XAU #XAUUSD

IG @IGcom

2 years ago

Technical cheat sheet: Decoding gold market trends... ✍️ @Monte_IG *Your capital is at risk. 69% of retail CFD accounts lose money* youtube.com/watch?v=GkGsXq…

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Ahead of tonight's #FOMC announcement, mostly a story of majority buy against USD among retail traders: $EUR 54% majority buy $GBP 54% $CAD 56% $AUD 73% $NZD 74% $JPY 78% (image for USD/JPY so opposite extreme sell) The exception is $CHF, majority sell 63%. #FX #Forex

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

BoJ rate hike, ETF & REIT halt, corporate bond purchase unwind, but JGB buys to continue. USD/JPY back above 150 as yields drop, and will likely intensify the opposite positioning between retail who aren't far off extreme sell, and CoT who are still heavy buy. #USDJPY $JPY #FX

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Monte Safieddine @MonteCapitalcom

2 years ago

Sizable moves in percentage terms on the retail FX front, in the case of EUR/USD from a majority short 59% at the start of last week to a slight buy 54% this week, a week that includes the FOMC decision. $EUR #EURUSD