Levi Henze @HenzeTimon
Economist at @DezernatZ. Mainly Climate, Macro, Fiscal. Berlin, de Joined November 2012-
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This is a sentence that does much heavy lifting, I suspect. From an economic point of view it’s trivial to state the less growth comes with less environmental damages. But some of Stiglitz‘ own work show us that little follows from that.
As someone who would like to have an informed and responsible opinion on climate change and its effects, I find this level of disagreement very disturbing. What the hell is going on?
As speculative and ungrounded it might be, it’s very necessary.
I’d be very interested in a @hausfath take on this one. Seems to imply (because heat buffering is limited) that we can knock off <=~1°C using CDR, with strong implications for max #overshoot.
New Anthropocene paper. Earth still operates in "Holocene logic", buffering heat imbalance. Anthropocene = Pressure. But, BAU, reaching 3°C in 2100 & we get "stuck" in a Hothouse trajectory for 1000 years. Anthropocene risks turning into a state. No Good. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/SNPBFGMS…
Interesting parallel to Germany. Current administration ran on exactly that platform and there’s currently little chance this bet paid off.
Okay, this was provocative and I want to clarify what I’m worried about. Electricity prices obviously matter. But 1) I don’t want us to make promises we can’t keep on timescales we are suggesting & 2. policy response being offered won’t fix that, and could make it worse
Leave aside the existential philosophical stuff, and here's the hard-edged reality of where the business of AI is heading: towards closed platforms intervening on what users can do to maintain their moat. We previously documented how the frontier labs self preference their own AI models, writing code that calls their own APIs to keep your token spend. This is the next logical step: quietly prevent you from being able to use their model to improve your own. It's a completely understandable move, and can have real safety and geopolitical benefits, but it will raise a lot of uncomfortable policy questions that we saw play out in Web 2.0 too.
When Fable 5 is used for frontier LLM development, it does not notify the user and instead limits the model’s capabilities through methods such as prompt modification, steering vectors, and PEFT. Anthropic estimated that this would affect approximately 0.03% of traffic.
And… community noted. I find it quite remarkable that in 2026 a high profile report is published in which RCP 8.5 is quite central (necessary, even) to the argument. This is not a case of testing model sensitivities or the like.
The key finding of the report is that energy transition alone will not suffice. We need to combine it with "sufficiency" to stay within 2 degrees. This includes labour hour reductions, growth caps in rich countries, less material consumption, and changes in food habits.
Wer nicht wie KI klingen will, sollte vor allem "contrastive negation" vermeiden, das Stilmittel Nr. 1 der aktuellen Modellgeneration.
I think a good takeaway from the whole Slobodian situation is to disregard his older work and read Muskism with a grain of salt (but read it nonetheless)
Fascinating.
@NewLeftEViews I mean I think I get your meaning, but no one policy mix is strictly necessary for a given target? There’s virtually infinite ones, choosing is also a moral question. Also, I think Piketty et al do just that - arguing the moral merits of a policy mix.
Excellent way to think about the Kaya Identity
The Kaya Identity shows the four ways to reduce emissions. As a general rule of thumb, as the focus moves from right to left among these four, decarbonization strategies get increasingly delusional (and arguably immoral).
@NewLeftEViews Yes, absolutely - but I think @noahqk was referring to policies *targeting* a specific part of the identity. Put another way no policy is immoral/moral just by virtue of it influencing population in some marginal and arbitrary way. Or at least that’s the way I read it.
@NewLeftEViews Are you saying the question of morality of policy mix should be independent of environmental target? Or the opposite?
Among the ones who has influenced a generation. Interested in any thoughts by more knowledgeable people.
If a historian on the right abused evidence in this way, they'd face career ruination. When Boston University's Quinn Slobodian does it, he gets a Guggenheim fellowship, book awards, and a Hewlett Foundation grant. Academia's rot runs far deeper than a simple crisis of rigor.
@JonasDietrich10 @RogerPielkeJr Anyone can make unrealistic assumptions. Particularly wrt world population. That’s not the point of scenario work
I think the temperature output of the „new“ IPCC current policies baseline is relevant to this discussion, whichever way you’re leaning. @RogerPielkeJr did a rough first estimate here. Do we really believe ~2C is *that* much of a stretch in the first place?
The key finding of the report is that energy transition alone will not suffice. We need to combine it with "sufficiency" to stay within 2 degrees. This includes labour hour reductions, growth caps in rich countries, less material consumption, and changes in food habits.
@NewLeftEViews Which, to be clear: Is totally okay. We should debate this on ethical, political economy, democracy grounds, and, frankly, redistribute a ton of wealth. We just shouldn’t expect that to fix the environment.
@NewLeftEViews Don’t think 1. is trivial *in practice*. Most important example right now would be dispersion of AI where long term environmental impacts are very much unclear. Second part (intractability) is exactly what I implied: You almost never can argue for undesirability from physics!
This is coming from a famous economist, so it's probably worth clarifying that there's no economics in this report showing that their degrowth pathway is either an ideal or likely decarbonization path. It's an opinion they work backwards from.
The key finding of the report is that energy transition alone will not suffice. We need to combine it with "sufficiency" to stay within 2 degrees. This includes labour hour reductions, growth caps in rich countries, less material consumption, and changes in food habits.
Many social science people tend to think that climate model scenarios are mere technicalities. No, my friends, we need to keep up
I think the temperature output of the „new“ IPCC current policies baseline is relevant to this discussion, whichever way you’re leaning. @RogerPielkeJr did a rough first estimate here. Do we really believe ~2C is *that* much of a stretch in the first place?
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