Stanphyl Capital 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 @StanphylCap

"Pentagon likely to cancel missile sale to Germany over fears of Russia" politi.co/4vmpBp0 So Trump's cancelling a sale of missiles meant to defend against Russia "because he's afraid of Russia"? Once again, Daddy Putin gives Donny his marching orders. #kompromat

Great new blog entry from @hkuppy about the cyclicality of semiconductors, and how the market is completely ignoring the massive new capacity on the way from China, where they cut prices to the bone and everyone's margins get killed: pracap.com/on-semis/ $SOXX $SMH

LOL!!! $SPCX is a royal shitshow for SUCKERS!

After I review more trial materials, I could have more to say on the Andrew Left verdict; but, I’m clear on the following for now. The jury convicted Andrew of not actually believing the opinions he stated in his Tweets. The evidence consisted of possibly out of context, but impolitic messages, a lack of a paper trail of real research effort, and the infamous closing of positions soon after the Tweets. The root causes of this prosecution are two-fold: the markets are overseen by lawyers who have limited understanding of how markets actually work in the modern era, and that Andrew, alone among activist short sellers, is a trader. Does this change the business for Activist Shorts Sellers? No. The rest of us are researchers first and when you publish multiple pages explaining the bases for your opinions, absent any smoking gun message to the contrary, the basis for showing the opinions are honestly held is evident. That’s why sell-side analyst sycophants will never be indicted for their bullshit Conviction/Strong Buys. They have a paper trail to support their purported opinions. Because Andrew was often operating on pattern recognition, there’s no paper trail. As far as immediate de-risking, that is not illegal. The DOJ and SEC also investigated other activist short sellers, substantially all of whom, MW included, begin de-risking after publication. MW received a SEC No Action Letter. Nobody else has been indicted. There are various reasons for this, but the most powerful IMO is the First Amendment. If you are short XYZ and an Activist publishes on it, that information is almost always core FA-protected speech (companies harming the public interest in some way). To allow you - but not the party exercising its FA rights - to trade - would completely contravene the point of the FA. Even if the DOJ, SEC, and jury doesn’t believe that Andrew always believed everything he Tweeted (despite being directionally correct the vast majority of the time and generating substantial profits for anybody who followed all trades), that should not be manipulation in the modern society / market. I keep thinking that this prosecution is straight out of a time machine from the 1980s. In the modern marketplace of ideas, the old standards do not - and should not - apply. Information has been democratized. It costs nothing to disseminate your opinion. Andrew won a large audience in the marketplace of ideas, which de facto, means that the marketplace places a high value on his statements. He outcompeted literally millions of people who’ve Tweeted on stocks to get there. When he’s competing with millions of people to get his views heard, the courts, SEC, and DOJ are not better arbiters of the truth than the marketplace of ideas. Anybody who reads FinTwit knows that it’s filled with false statements and bad information. Prosecuting the offenders is impossible as a practical matter due to their number. This prosecution effectively bifurcates this completely democratized marketplace of ideas by placing a duty on people whose ideas are already deemed much higher relative value by the marketplace participants. That does not fly under the FA. I have more thoughts & might Tweet them later.

"still trying figure it out" as they are once again printing $40 billion a month! LOL!

*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

2 hours ago

SCHMID: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH; IT HAS BEEN A FIVE YEAR FIGHT AND THE FED IS STILL TRYING TO FIGURE IT OUT

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The Tech sector's weighting in the S&P 500 hit a record 39.7% on Tuesday, nearly 5 percentage points higher than the peak in March 2000:

Really great job, Russian air defense! This guided-missile corvette Boykiy in Kronstadt near St Petersburg is totally not on fire. Source: t.me/dosye_shpiona/…

Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof

8 hours ago

Governor of St Petersburg Beglov: yesterday’s attack was a sign of Ukraine losing its nerve, our air defenses did a great job and showed their excellence 🤡

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How many ball-licks will Trump give Daddy Putin for THIS?

FinancialJuice @financialjuice

3 hours ago

Iran and Russia have signed a $25 bln MOU for cooperation in the nuclear sector - Tasnim News

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Great! Then the antisemites will have to find something ELSE to blame for their problems... It's be back to "the banks," "controlling the media" and "Epstein"!

The Jerusalem Post @Jerusalem_Post

3 hours ago

Interview: GOP lawmakers, Netanyahu are backing a bill to gradually end US military aid for Israel, Rep. Marlin Stutzman tells the Post. @AmichaiStein1 reports jpost.com/american-polit…

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Here’s something I wish millions of people knew. All the academics trying to give legitimacy to the genocide libel know that Israel is not committing genocide under the Genocide Convention. They are completely explicit about this. They openly argue that the legal definition of genocide needs to be discarded, stretched, or reinterpreted, because they know it doesn’t apply to Israel. If you’ve ever wondered how Israel could be accused of genocide while fighting against a massive army of militans—while Hamas embeds itself in hospitals, schools, and homes—know that they also know this undermines the accusation. But they don’t care. For them, Israel is genocidal simply because it’s a “settler-colonial” state. That’s it. Not intent, not action, not operational context, just ideology. This theory says nothing about intent and nothing about military law. According to this logic, antizionist militias every right to use guerilla warfare, to hide behind civilians, and to martyr its own population. They bears no responsibility. Everyone pushing the genocide accusation knows it’s not legally true. So when they cite human rights reports or international law, they’re deliberately distorting it, bending it to fit their ideology, hoping no one notices. Figures like Dirk Moses, Francesca Albanese, Omer Bartov, and Amos Goldberg are part of a small circle doing this openly. They know the contradictions and they admit them among themselves, when they think that no one else is watching.

Watch @Tesla self-driving v14.3.3 recklessly blow past “Do Not Enter” signs. @elonmusk’s defective software doesn't even know how to read. Does anyone really think this is ready for unsupervised operation?

Definition of "halted": "Having multiple missiles launched at your military bases and allies' infrastructure, then bombing the launchers."

FinancialJuice @financialjuice

5 hours ago

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Iran conflict has been halted.

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So how much stock are its partners buying in the IPO? (I think we all know the answer to that, lol.)

*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

5 hours ago

GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS SPACEX’S AI REVENUE TO SURGE 100 TIMES BY 2030

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The Trump administration calls this a ceasefire. The Islamic regime in Iran targets Kuwait's civilian airport. Today, Hezbollah in Lebanon rejected the ceasefire and attacked civilians in Israel. NATO, the EU, and Starmer's Britain? Silent. Not a word.

The S&P 500 is down fractionally, but the advance/decline line is on pace for its best reading (+297) in nearly two months.

Don't worry, Elon... You have a special "Campaign Contribution Exemption"!

Reuters Legal @ReutersLegal

6 hours ago

JUST IN: The US Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Securities and Exchange Commission in a case challenging the Wall Street watchdog agency's broad authority to recover illegal profits through a financial remedy called disgorgement reut.rs/4arh8Zq

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When does $PFE, selling at 9x earnings with a 6% dividend yield, become "an AI play"? (We're long $PFE.)

So now it's a CAR company again??? LOL

*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

7 hours ago

$TSLA - TESLA MODEL Y L US ENTRY COULD BOOST SALES TD Cowen reiterates Buy on Tesla with a $490 target, highlighting upside if the Model Y L (long-wheelbase, 3-row SUV) enters the US. Analyst Itay Michaeli estimates 60k–135k annual demand, ~30% above current Model Y volumes.

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While Russia bombs Ukraine and kills civilians, President Trump is bizarrelysending a delegation to a conference in Russia to discuss economic development.   I challenged Secretary Rubio today to explain why we would send any U.S. official to a such an event designed to prop up Putin's war machine.

The Genocide Hoax is a concerted campaign that began long before October 7 but received inspiration with the massacre. The goal is to paint all Israelis as genocidal maniacs, so that you’ll want us dead. That’s the story of the last three years.

Jonathan Eric Lewis @LewisJonathanE

a day ago

Immediately after October 7, the call went out by antizionist activists, urging everyone to label Israel's defensive actions as a "genocide" The reason for this was to rhetorically trap Jews Either admit there's a genocide and be called a genocidal maniac Or deny the existence

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