CRE Lender @CREDebtFund
High Yield CRE - Debt risk with equity returns or is it equity risk with no upside? Joined December 2020-
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A very different dynamic in the real estate debt world playing out since about a year. Every Multifamily development deal I look at pencils for the debt but on my proforma equity loses money or barely breaks even. Every construction loan take out we quote on a lease up deal, the…
Lot of REtwit conversations about office. 1 data point: - Note on a large gateway market office traded recently - Loan basis was ~$350/SF - Fully leased but vacating in 12-24 mos - Lender opted to sell note and got ~$200/SF. Buyer is multi convertor Peak to trough decline~60%.
A broker at the Miami CREFC conference just asked for a cash out loan on a FLL area Multifamily lease up with stabilized debt yield of ~5.25%! Have to admire the audacity!
Seeing some massive retrades in the Multifamily space. Those 3.5 caps are now 4.5! That’s a 23% decline in value. 10-15% discounts on contract price on the table. Some sellers agreeing to sell and some buyers losing deposits. Feels like it’s just the beginning….
Funding new acquisition in South Dallas - wildly different tax assumptions between Sponsor and appraiser. My rule of thumb is to assume at least 85% of purchase price as Assessed Value. But doing that will put us ~20% higher than tax comps. Thoughts on good AV to PP ratio?
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The Promote: NEW YORK HAPPY HOUR 🗽 When: Thursday, 4/4, 4:30-7pm Where: Old Town Bar, 45 E 18th St. What: Drinks, bites, good cheer, CRE chatter (Off the Record, no dox), OG reader appreciation speeches Would love to see you. Basta!
@CREDebtFund Can do significant better in businesses with a low 7 figure check size
If this doesn’t fire you up, nothing will! Here is Zarna’s set last night on The Tonight Show! Take that leap! We only live once 🔥
My friend Zarna was practicing law in New York City She was 28, a mother of two, working not-stop. She had to make a change, but leaving the workplace could make it impossible to return. What unfolded next is one of the most incredible entrepreneurial stories I've ever heard.
@JeremyGlantz Hi Jeremy, I was aware of the transaction, but sadly was not involved! There are a ton of air rights in Midtown East, and to transfer development rights you have to share 10 feet of contiguous property line with the receiving site. For properties that are land marked, you can go…
The Helmsley Building, a prince of the skyline, has gone to special servicing. Owner RXR is staring at an "imminent maturity default,” per Kroll. What makes Manhattan trophy offices such fascinating artifacts is that for decades, they've been magnets for global wealth. Dive deep…
News: I’ve taken the leap to launch my own thing, which means I’ve said farewell to The Real Deal, my home for over a decade and a newsroom whose irreverent brilliance I will forever cherish. Gratitude for our @trdny team and our readers for such a rollicking good time.
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🗓 Looking forward to chatting with all of you tomorrow at 3 PM EST. I'll be highlighting the lessons learned during the 26 years and 46 days of running Massey Knakal. Plus, a special message on a superpower that we all possess. Hope you can make it!
Based upon the success and feedback of the "Spaces" session we had last Saturday evening, I will be doing another one this coming Saturday at 3pm EST. Going to go through highlights of the 26 (not all of them) lessons learned in the 26 years and 46 days of running Massey Knakal.…
Want lower rent? Build more housing. 500,000 new units need to be built in the next decade. With our Get Stuff Built recommendations, City of Yes text amendments, and State legislative agenda, we have a real plan to make NYC affordable again. wsj.com/articles/apart…
If I were @TreppWire or @GreenStreet_CRE I would be digging on these 2 for market color and takeaways. And credit to @trdny for being my one stop shop to see both important stories @trdsocal @hitsamty
What did you do during 2020? A Twitter 🧵 I walked the streets of NYC between Manhattan south of 96th Street on the eastside and south of 110th Street on the westside. With a Sanborn tax lot map by my side, I went to work. Here's my finished product.
@CREDebtFund @ByRichBockmann that is fascinating. want to some day look into all the foreign investors who had no idea how rough things get here, and the different ways in which they got roughed up. might hit you up!
Garden sunbelt rent rolls 90 days ago: last 30 leases signed 5-10% above last 90 leases, & 20-30% above total RR. Same analysis today (u/w 200+ RR from ours & at market): last 30 leases signed -5% to flat over last 90 leases & 12-25% above total RR. Reversion continues
I have abducted @Cribdilla and am currently employing enhanced interrogation techniques by playing Peter Linneman’s latest ‘Driven by Insights’ on a loop. I want no ransom, and he will be released unharmed as soon as he tweets that CRE is an inflation hedge of his own volition.
@CREDebtFund This is different market by market but for Texas that’s the same way we underwrite.
@CREDebtFund @dividends_reit Spoke to a buddy at a publicly traded CRE debt fund. They have 0 pipeline. Killed all deals that were in app
@CREDebtFund My client has a trophy asset in Manhattan. He was in contract to sell. Buyer put down a $25M deposit. Went out to get financing and ultimately wasn’t able to put it together. Very prominent buyer too. My client refinanced his property and ended up with a $25M windfall.
@CREDebtFund Pricing is off that much vs peak outlier trades from Q4/Q1, but (1) that was the most inefficiently priced mkt I’ve seen (all deals priced to upfront ~3% so some were fine and some absurd), and (2) sunbelt NOIs are up 10-20% since so cap rate math isn’t as easy of a swag as usual
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