Andrew Thrasher, CMT @AndrewThrasher
Portfolio Manager for The Financial Enhancement Group & Founder of Thrasher Analytics. Chartered Market Technician. 2x Dow Award winner & Founders Award winner thrasheranalytics.com Indianapolis Joined April 2009-
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In Sunday's Thrasher Analytics letter, I discussed the positive price response to the lack of bearish breadth confirmation last week but how Friday saw very few stocks (20%) keep up with the Index which has often resulted in short-term pullbacks or minor consolidations. $SPX $SPY
The Mag 7 had a big impact on the way up and seeing the same impact on the recent leg down. They are the massive tail that wags the dog in both directions.
DJIA flat, small caps leading, VIX down, looks like some dip buyers are trying to take their shot today.
Mid-week email sent this morning from Thrasher Analytics w/ an updated comments on equities and volatility. $SPX $VIX
$SPX now approaching the gap from Feb. 22. Gaps can act as areas of support/resistance when tested. Watching how the Index acts here.
S&P 500 will need to break 5,000 for it to get to -5% drawdown and is currently on day 12 since its recent 52-week high.
Nope. Flipped to a 84% down day.
Morning starting out w/ a 90+ up day for large cap stocks with non-Mag 7 sectors leading. See if this holds throughout the day.
Coffee futures are up about 50% since September and Commercial Traders are massively net short. With commodities, commercial traders often have exposure within their business and use futures to hedge. $KC_F
Commercial Traders had nailed the low in volatility. They owned over 90% of open interest, long vol when everyone else wanted nothing to do with it. $VIX
Masters starts and the market freaks out. We didn’t have this with March Madness. Golf fans need to chill.
Looks like we'll see a lot of 50-MA tests going into the weekend. Notable: Nas100, All-Cap, S&P 400, NYSE, SP100, SP500. Dow Ind, Dow Trans, R2K, & SP600 already broke below. (obviously not an exhaustive list)
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17K Followers 3K Following @vulture writer/editor, union (@Newsguild) member, Queens resident, originated in Nebraska, educated in Texas, understandably furious. Black lives matter.And we are back through the 2/22 gap. Pretty solid short-term defensive save. Also, no OS reading yet on RSI - nice stand there, too. If we can now hold this area, chances increase that the drawdown is close to being over... $SPX $SPY $ES_F
At my Trader Meetup last night, one of the attendees brought cookies she made. The cookies were decorated with candlesticks. She gets us.
I have twin boys 1 year old. This hits hard.
Who else watched this and said “yep looks about right”
@AndrewThrasher I literally just told someone else not to jinx it, so… 😆🤞
Great chart/indicator by Thrasher. IMO: Gold looks good long-term, but tactically, if you want to get in on the goldcraze, it would be wise to wait for a pullback and/or for price to digest recent gains, so that MAs can "catch-up," and a better risk/reward entry can be obtained
The latest strong price action in gold has pushed $GLD more than 10% above its 50-day MA. Historically, we've seen periods of it getting even further (15% in some instances) but 10% has been fairly stretched in most occurrences. $GC_F
Holy wow. This is perfection. Yes yes yes! If you watch one thing today…
@AndrewThrasher You the man, thanks. Well, then my coded alert based off of your paper can be found here. You’re more than free to use/share: tradingview.com/script/7ddxwaA…
It probably means not working with Edward Jones
🇺🇸
Breaking news: The US is on track to grow at double the rate of any other G7 country this year, according to IMF forecasts. on.ft.com/49GI3x8
Canary watch
S&P 500 will need to break 5,000 for it to get to -5% drawdown and is currently on day 12 since its recent 52-week high.
First workout back after a week of California fun & wine Simple, but def not easy 🫠🥴😵💫💀
@AndrewThrasher Yes. But to your point if the trade is sized properly maybe the answer is do nothing.
Nothing goes straight up forever. Lesson #1,452.
The latest strong price action in gold has pushed $GLD more than 10% above its 50-day MA. Historically, we've seen periods of it getting even further (15% in some instances) but 10% has been fairly stretched in most occurrences. $GC_F
@AndrewThrasher hah, a rate of trend is a rate of trend
@AndrewThrasher Yes. Many that haven't broke are being tested ✅