Tuan Nguyen @tuannguyen0709
Economist and Enthusiast. Econ PhD @RSMUSLLP. Named Bloomberg Best Rate Forecaster of 2023. Write about econ data. Views are my own. realeconomy.rsmus.com New York City Joined March 2017-
Tweets284
-
Followers196
-
Following157
-
Likes164
Definitely stronger underlying number than the topline suggests
Definitely stronger underlying number than the topline suggests https://t.co/SSfNtwf4PK
We should see material housing disinflation starting Q2, with PCE inflation to 2%--assume constant contribution from other components, which is high vs. historical standard. But data-dependent Fed won't move until then, so chance of June/July cut is now greatly diminished.
Today's inflation is mostly core services. Once shelter disinflation filters through the economy while transportation inflation eases, we should see a much better picture. So it remains a temporary pause in the disinflation trend.
2024 is poised for a seismic shift in global economic activities as several major central banks are expected to loosen their interest rates after nearly 2y of hiking at historical paces. This adjustment would create the necessary conditions for global growth to continue.
Massive job report upside surprise but little inflationary pressure, how could that happen? Most job gains came from lower to medium-paying jobs, encouraging news given how that part of the economy has been struggling the most with no excess savings and rising prices.
Which explains the spike in airfare CPI in the last 2-3 months.
Which explains the spike in airfare CPI in the last 2-3 months.
what keeps the supercore inflation elevated is now about 90% transportation services. Even with the rebound in medicare, taking care of transportation--airfare, car rental, insurance, which should be easy--will mean inflation back to normal.
Job gains were more robust for lower-paying jobs, explaining why wage growth was much slower at 0.1%. In overall, a strong report supporting economic growth, with encouraging inflation news. The Fed should like it.
Check out this @YahooFinance clip to see our U.S. economist @tuannguyen0709 discuss the latest inflation data: rsm.us/3uRJkTT
A good American productivity morning to all. Our thoughts on what is a potential game changer. via @nytimes @talmonsmith @tuannguyen0709 nytimes.com/2024/02/14/bus…
The worst in terms of monetary tightening is likely over via SLOOS data. All indicators showed significant improvement from a quarter ago. The data was in line with our MMBI result, showing businesses have been ready to turn the page regarding borrowing and investment plans
A blowout job number & a test for Chairman Powell when he says good news should stay as good news. The market does not seem to agree. Or maybe cos the number was better than good and the Chairman did not specify. That said, a strong labor market is always a win for Americans.
So that was a first from Fed Chairman: we want growth and labor market to be strong not weaker. That is the definition of dovish. So good data now is good news.
Have we soft-landed? This chart might say so regarding inflation. But that as far as the "landing the plane" analogy can get us to. The economy is still growing faster than the long-term average (2.5%). What will the "economic plane" do in 2024?
The CPI 3-month annualized was below 2% in December. We think we should see more of that in the first quarter of the year as spending cools after the holiday season. We should be on track to sub-3% on most major estimates by June when the Fed engineers its first cut.
Hourly wage growth is now back to 2019 level, a clear sign of a cooling labor market which supports no more rate hike. The Fed should begin to reassess its stance on rate cuts soon. But it remains a tough task for the Fed to not let the financial market run away prematurely
Despite a 4.9% real GDP growth, underlying inflation was pretty much under control, as core PCE rose only 2.4% QoQ. That implied a 0.23% monthly growth in Sept. So if the economy slows materially in Q4 as expected, there should be no reason to raise rates.
Droredr @droredr20165
0 Followers 18 Following
Rahul Ruia @eccentrickky
184 Followers 666 Following Wannabe full time investor/trader, curious about everything i can get my eyes upon, Cleared CFA L2
Marc Sumerlin @sumerlin_marc
88 Followers 339 Following
Sorrowful @JoannaE29278
1 Followers 372 Following
BlackMarketInvestor @UnorthodoxStox
52 Followers 14 Following Real World Investment Professional. Shitposting my best stock ideas with the world.
Adil Marolia @Nekwanorg
29 Followers 621 Following M/S NEKWAN CHARITABLE TRUST Education!Medical!Poverty!Destitute! Gpay: 9769768443
Brian Goche @bgoche
145 Followers 427 Following
Clark Peterson @optionology
673 Followers 2K Following Film & TV producer. Dad and husband. Photographer. Investor. @TheAcademy member. @Stanford alum.
Pedro Valente @valentepb
21 Followers 363 Following
Is Bjorn @truthseeker2100
27 Followers 358 Following
us_Yara_ @usYara296128
16 Followers 2K Following
Adam Lloyd @adam_d_lloyd
136 Followers 454 Following An expat who never went home. Money maker for: @rsm_canada opinions and comments my own.
Harmony @Harmony1631701
25 Followers 2K Following
SciLine @RealSciLine
6K Followers 10K Following Reporters, need an expert to add science to your story? Scientists, need to improve your media-communication skills? We can help & all of our services are FREE.
Layla-grace Leimer @LaylaLeim
47 Followers 5K Following
V Ewton @mstexoma
143 Followers 963 Following
Stull @1Stull
294 Followers 5K Following Expert, textpert, choking smokers Don’t you think the joker laughs at you?
Ricardo Villalobos @avocado_invest
372 Followers 4K Following 📊 Independent Investor | Financial Markets Knowledge Makes Dreams Come True📚 Entrepreneur | #BTFD🚀
Sarah McKevitt @SarahMcKevitt4
35 Followers 80 Following #MiddleMarket #RealEstate senior analyst + CPA @RSMUSLLP. Mom to 3 boys. https://t.co/87pE6LcokQ | Views are my own
Nilla @saldu423
86 Followers 5K Following
Rick Kes @HealthCare_CPA
735 Followers 814 Following Senior Analyst for @RSMUSLLP’s #HealthCare industry practice. Father to three boys. https://t.co/S0VrbuRzt2 | Views are my own
Howard Siegal @HowardSiegal
94 Followers 161 Following I am a Partner at RSM US LLP. I don't always tweet but when I do it's usually dry accounting stuff.
Hanh Dang @Hanafitness90
0 Followers 22 Following
Mourice Kiboye @Cols7913
276 Followers 795 Following
Theytea @Theytea123446
89 Followers 2K Following
Rita Lewin @RitaaoLewin
38 Followers 1K Following Found different beauties from all US states 🙀 They are ready to meet See nude photos before a date! Watching this https://t.co/oxtbo4AnLg
MacroDispatch @Macrodispatch
323 Followers 391 Following Data & Charts = Bread & Butter Building The Macro Puzzle Data Point by Data Point Just following my curiosity! Formely Macrohive,The Macro Compass,StoneX
Thotooslu @thotooslu92294
41 Followers 393 Following
Fadi Hakura @Harkhuff
306 Followers 4K Following
Anthony Danaher @TonyDanaher
118 Followers 693 Following President of Guild Investment Management, husband, father, brother, son... Fan of: Chiefs, Lakers, KState, Dodgers, Royals, Arsenal, & working outdoors
Steven Kampa @stevenkampa
325 Followers 615 Following Partner at RSM US LLP | National Tax Leader RSM US Alliance | RSM Canada Alliance
Simon Fuchs (🦊) @SimonFuchs4
1K Followers 2K Following Research Economist @AtlantaFed (views = my own). @TSEinfo and @UniOfYork alumnus. Rhinelander in ATL. Interests include: Trade/Geography/History/Cities.
Edward Casey @ejc_usa
806 Followers 5K Following Fixed Income ∙ Corporate Credit ∙ Investment Grade ∙ High Yield ∙ Leveraged Loans ∙ CDS
Japan Real Estate @JapanREA
1K Followers 1K Following I am a real estate specilalist in one of the major accounting firms, having a real estate appraisal license in Japan, US (MAI) and UK (MRICS).
YieldGuy 🇦🇺🇺.. @Seventhsister87
105 Followers 2K Following
Danny Schmidt @DJS4HC
26 Followers 157 Following
Jean Lee @Jean_Lee88
8 Followers 34 Following Entrepreneur/investor/Blockchain Enthusiast There are always ups and downs in life, as long as you meet the sunrise, you will see the light ahead
janice @futurecfa
3 Followers 2K Following
Dean Kernus @kernus_dean
86 Followers 131 Following
Alpaca DN @AlpacaResearch
104 Followers 540 Following
Soft is the new Hard @DoejiStar
2K Followers 2K Following bulls/bears make money, pigs get slaughtered https://t.co/06zAPFR8ws
talmon joseph smith @talmonsmith
13K Followers 3K Following economics reporter @NYTimes for @nytimesbusiness || formerly @GQmagazine, NYU, @tufts|| newyorleanian || [email protected]|| rep’d by @aevitascreative
Harry @FPL_Harry
149K Followers 3K Following Full Time FPL YouTuber - 100K Subs - https://t.co/wFt0GxrICU - Last 3 ranks: 510th, 1.3k & 3.8k overall - ✉️ Enquiries - [email protected]
Rick Kes @HealthCare_CPA
735 Followers 814 Following Senior Analyst for @RSMUSLLP’s #HealthCare industry practice. Father to three boys. https://t.co/S0VrbuRzt2 | Views are my own
Diablo 4 World Boss T.. @game8_d4boss
70K Followers 10 Following World Boss Time & Location. Now predicting times for all future spawns. Schedule & Countdown: https://t.co/6Bjpz8r0UC Discord: https://t.co/G5rcCSTpKf
Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders
412K Followers 682 Following Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Disclosures: https://t.co/UPkjXSZ9uc
Matthew Riccio @Matthew_Riccio_
579 Followers 801 Following Real Estate Industry Senior Analyst @RSMUSLLP. National Real Estate Industry Leadership Team. CPA.
Peter Coy @petercoy
15K Followers 1K Following I write an econ newsletter for New York Times Opinion. Please sign up at https://t.co/cuQKZSOM3r?amp=1. Email me at [email protected]
Cassandra B.C. @michaeljburry
1.5M Followers 0 Following
Ray Dalio @RayDalio
1.4M Followers 93 Following Official account of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, author of #1 New York Times bestseller 'Principles,' professional mistake maker
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie
260K Followers 337 Following Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. Retweets, Likes and Follows are not endorsements.
Mohamed A. El-Erian @elerianm
681K Followers 1K Following President, Queens' College, Cambridge Uni. Allianz, Gramercy advisor. Wharton Professor. Lauder Senior Fellow. Former Pimco CEO/co-CiO. Chair Cambridge Union.
Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos
324K Followers 111 Following Chief economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal • Author, "Trillion Dollar Triage”
Jan Eeckhout @jan_eeckhout
11K Followers 3K Following Economist. Professor at UPF Barcelona. Market Power, Macro, Labor, Cities. Author of "The Profit Paradox" https://t.co/fvJdbrufLw
Fut Sheriff @FutSheriff
1.3M Followers 666 Following Enquiries: [email protected] '|’Sheriff'' at @FUTCoinShop Trading group: https://t.co/e9OzwwEQBv | WL Services: https://t.co/uw5GeFSW4R
Magnus Carlsen @MagnusCarlsen
1.0M Followers 128 Following World Chess Champion. The highest ranked chess player in the world. Former (live) #1 Fantasy Premier League player
Trung Phan @TrungTPhan
699K Followers 4K Following Write on business with @workweekinc. Co-host @niapodcast. Building an AI research app: https://t.co/fZ5ObIyBGI
EAFC 24 News @FUT24News
622K Followers 1K Following #FC24 news & giveaways! | DM for Promo | Partnered with @DonkeyCoinStore | FUT Champs service - @FUT24Boosting
stephenkemler @stephenkemler
68 Followers 45 Following #MIddlemarket #lifesciences senior analyst @rsmusllp I love bikes! https://t.co/7HFBKwFBGJ | Views are my own
Angela Kramer @Angela__Kramer
31 Followers 108 Following Financial Services Senior Analyst @rsmusllp Always talking #Banking and #ESG but on a yoga mat
St. Louis Fed Economi.. @STLFedResearch
4K Followers 23 Following Expanding economic knowledge with scholarly content and news from @stlouisfed economists and Research Division. Authors' views are their own. RT≠endorsement.
Courtenay Brown @Courtenay_Brown
3K Followers 1K Following covers the Federal Reserve and the global economy @axios (🇯🇲)
Tom Kozlik @tomkozlik
4K Followers 1K Following Head of Public Policy & Municipal Strategy at @HTS_Financial, the leading U.S. municipal investment bank; #muniland; tweets not endorsements
Constance L Hunter @ConstanceHunter
9K Followers 2K Following Macroeconomist|Triangulating Data|@nberpubs Board|Data Junkie|Policy Wonk|my own views| #Econ101 #SecretLivesOfEconomists
Nicole Petallides @NPetallides
30K Followers 405 Following Anchor @SchwabNetwork (Past: FOXBusiness, Bloomberg, CNBC) @AmericanU NCAA Div. I Women’s Soccer https://t.co/Bu8N7zIjc1 Disc: https://t.co/W3w377M9QP
Schwab Network @SchwabNetwork
66K Followers 2K Following Empowering every investor & trader, every market day with timely financial news & expert insights. RT≠ endorsement. Imp Discl: https://t.co/PjwPtVTPpv
Bloomberg @business
9.5M Followers 78 Following The first word in business news. Newsletters: https://t.co/nWaCxHTiks Podcasts: https://t.co/096e9xMJF7 Hong Kong Edition: https://t.co/fmkJ3ElWry
Finance News @ftfinancenews
826K Followers 21 Following The latest news and analysis on the finance industry, from the @financialtimes
Financial Times @FT
5.9M Followers 1K Following Big stories and breaking news headlines as they are published on https://t.co/EYmAcRLBHv. Register here to access free articles: https://t.co/NRg2hritkA
Deborah L. Cohen @dlcohenwrites
2K Followers 2K Following Thought Leadership Director for RSM US. Former Reuters biz reporter. Interested in economic issues affecting midsize companies & some other stuff. Views mine.
Ed Abrams @Abrams981
655 Followers 184 Following National Marketing Leader, RSM Consulting Services. Passionate about the future of Marketing. Enjoy embarrassing my children.
Zachary Carroll @zcarroll
350 Followers 807 Following Husband & father in training; national audit leader-lending/SEC audit partner @rsmusllp; servant to the capital markets. Opinions are my own. 👨👩👧👦📈💰🍷
Michael Haas @mhaas30
120 Followers 236 Following Manager, Technology Consulting | Healthcare Senior Analyst https://t.co/WTnIuMr9Tr… https://t.co/B56lCrx28A
Ryan Sweet @RealTime_Econ
2K Followers 97 Following Husband, father of 3, Chief US Economist @OxfordEconomics. Views are my own. Former: @economics_ma and @WCUofPA. Grad of @washcoll, @UDelaware and @JHUCarey.
The Upshot @UpshotNYT
233K Followers 307 Following Analytical journalism in words and graphics from The New York Times. Our newsletter: https://t.co/DclvAjp9cj
Jeff Bezos @JeffBezos
6.4M Followers 355 Following Amazon. Blue Origin. Washington Post. Bezos Earth Fund. Bezos Academy.
Laura Dietzel @lauradietzel1
330 Followers 785 Following #Middlemarket #realestate senior analyst + CPA @RSMUSLLP I’ll cross the street to pet your dog. https://t.co/Aa59Jrkfzk views are my own
Coral Murphy Marcos @coralmerfi
2K Followers 987 Following escribecosas manatieña en @ucberkeley 🇵🇷 | words: @nytimes, @guardian, @el_pais | she/ella
Lananh Nguyen @LananhTNguyen
9K Followers 8K Following "Lan-ann." @Reuters U.S. Finance Editor in New York leading coverage of banking giants. Formerly @nytimes, @business and @dowjones via London.
(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook
149K Followers 273 Following The Daily Shot is a graphical, no-hype global financial and economic newsletter (see sample: https://t.co/HjT4hq9I8N).
Jonnelle Marte @Jonnelle
12K Followers 3K Following Reporting on the Federal Reserve and the economy for @business. Grad of @Bagehots & @Columbia_biz Views are my own. [email protected]
The Economist Data Te.. @ECONdailycharts
174K Followers 507 Following Charts, maps and data-driven journalism from The Economist data team
Sergio de la Fe @sergiodelafe
170 Followers 871 Following
UChicago Economics @UChi_Economics
21K Followers 581 Following The Kenneth C. Griffin Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. RT/follow ≠ endorsement.
Jeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek
66K Followers 2K Following Federal Reserve and economy reporter @nytimes. Pittsburgh native, Tar Heel. Wrote a book on central banking's new era, link below.
Ken Tinnes @Ktinnes_TMT
111 Followers 188 Following
Scott Helberg @ScottHelberg
114 Followers 413 Following #MiddleMarket #RealEstate senior analyst @RSMUSLLP. Proud father and husband. Diehard Cubs fan | https://t.co/KBVOLfGVwo | Views are my own
Phil Levy @philipilevy
4K Followers 2K Following Chief Economist, @flexport. Former White House and State Department. Global economy, trade wars, China, & more.
brian cheung @bcheungz
19K Followers 999 Following business + data correspondent @nbcnews. 🏦 💸👟 via @yahoofinance @spgmarketintel @federalreserve. say hi: [email protected]
Aubree Eliza Weaver @AubreeEWeaver
1K Followers 240 Following Legislative Services Editor @POLITICO • Alum @LeMoyne, @AmericanU • Cat lady & coffee addict • Thoughts? [email protected]Check out the conversation @RSMUSLLP’s U.S. economist @tuannguyen0709 had with @ACG_MMG about his economic outlook for 2024: rsm.buzz/47ZrBr1
My hit on another rock solid US Jobs Report via @YahooFinance @thebradsmith.
“This is another rock solid American jobs report,” RSM’s @joebrusuelas says. “We see hiring cooling. We see wages cooling. We saw 110,000 downward revisions in the past two months. This plays into exactly where the Fed wants... to go and sets up nicely for a September pause.”
I’m personal/family news my sister Rebecca Brusuelas-James has taken the position of Chief Operations & Finance Officer at the USC Keck School of Medicine. #FightOn & welcome to our other family. 👇
My wife just texted me this, I'm sleeping on the couch tonight
I knew U.S. healthcare costs were high, but didn't realize that caring for a terminally ill parent would feel like financial war. The first time we set foot in a hospital—insured & preauthorized—administrators halted surgery prep & demanded $190,000 (!) cash upfront to proceed
My note on the robust American June Jobs Report: U.S. employment report: Strong gains continue in June | The Real Economy Blog realeconomy.rsmus.com/u-s-employment…
Nice video explainer from @WSJ on three ways the President could bypass Congress to avoid default--and their severe downsides. (Disclosure: a bunch of me in the video, and I agree with everything I say.) wsj.com/video/series/n…
One of the many complaints I have about IO economists is that they have been almost entirely absent from discussions about inflation, leaving the field wide open for macroeconomists (and even worse), many of whom don’t know what they’re talking about.
You can watch a video 🍿 presentation of this work… 👀 dropbox.com/s/652nw6i3cuhs…
What's lacking, I think I now believe, is a clear model of what we're trying to measure. Enough facts — time for some theory! And I found myself rereading a 2022 paper by Ivan Werning 3/ nber.org/papers/w30260
I defended my dissertation over zoom, so here’s a picture of me right after hearing I didn’t fail!!!
US March Inflation Report: Smoothing out the monthly noise on housing, core ex housing, core services ex housing & medical care, and core services ex housing, medical care and airfares all of which are risks around the wage outlook look to be plateauing or topped. Good news here.
#HappyEaster Happy Weekend 💖🐰 see you tomorrow @TDANetwork #beachgirl
My hit on @FoxBusiness on todays jobs report & the bank crisis: Joe Brusuelas: Bank crises are 'slowing moving beasts that are profoundly non-linear' video.foxbusiness.com/v/6324151106112
Today's presser has been an exemplar of the benefits of transparency. Powell has been frank in describing the thought process that led to their decision. Most importantly he conveyed uncertainty--& how their decisions will continue to be driven by data, both macro & financial.
How should the government treat uninsured depositors after a bank run? It's a question Jay Powell faced as an assistant Treasury secretary in January 1991, and it's recounted in my book (which is worth reading if you're interested in how Powell operates) nicktimiraos.com/book
asian parents: can’t see you, tilt your camera down, let me see if your skin is healthy!! meanwhile, on my end:
@TheStalwart People use “full employment” to mean different things - at least one commonly used meaning isn’t contradicted by increases in employment
It's not like the tech/media layoffs aren't evident in the jobs report; the information sector lost 5k jobs, with declines in publishing, broadcasting, and computing infrastructure/data/processing/web hosting. It's just that 5k isn't a hill of beans in an economy with 155m jobs.
Trends for United States
You might like
