Branislav Slantchev @slantchev
Professor of Political Science at the University of California San Diego IR theory and conflict, formal modeling. All views expressed here are strictly personal slantchev.org Del Mar, CA Joined January 2022-
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That's why I said back then that this war is the defining moment of this century. "Russia is a threat to the West. As long as it remains non-democratic, it cannot be trusted. And it is not going to become democratic anytime soon." slantchev.wordpress.com/2022/03/22/rus… wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/west…
Orbán, Vučić and Ivanishvili are not Putin's proxies or minions. They are their own men. But the presence and actions of Russia in European and international politics enables their autocratic behaviour.
I actually think that this here -- overestimating US influence and underestimating the agency of the Kremlin, among others -- is THE blind spot for most of these analysts, not just Charap or Mearsheimer. It explains a lot of their very odd arguments. (Not all, but a lot.)
I actually think that this here -- overestimating US influence and underestimating the agency of the Kremlin, among others -- is THE blind spot for most of these analysts, not just Charap or Mearsheimer. It explains a lot of their very odd arguments. (Not all, but a lot.)
When you have to use one hand to tweet a pithy anti-capitalist quote by Lenin on your iPhone while eating your Big Mac. The struggle is real, people!
Even after the hyperbole about the gap, it’s funny how the answer can be slapping you in the face and one can still go “it doesn’t make sense.” It only doesn’t make sense if you think the quality and prestige of education are the same. And they are not.
Even after the hyperbole about the gap, it’s funny how the answer can be slapping you in the face and one can still go “it doesn’t make sense.” It only doesn’t make sense if you think the quality and prestige of education are the same. And they are not.
The CCP shills are so dumb, they keep self-owning. This clown here forgot how Mao got in bed with the US to escape the Soviet orbit, and how cooperation with the US helped overcome the legacy of his disastrous leaps & cultural revolutions.
The CCP shills are so dumb, they keep self-owning. This clown here forgot how Mao got in bed with the US to escape the Soviet orbit, and how cooperation with the US helped overcome the legacy of his disastrous leaps & cultural revolutions.
Могучая, никем непобедимая.
Могучая, никем непобедимая.
That crowd is pure tankie bullshit — what’s bad for the West is totally ok for Russia.
That crowd is pure tankie bullshit — what’s bad for the West is totally ok for Russia.
That’s not the soundbite you want for your protest.
That’s not the soundbite you want for your protest.
"more Americans think the earth is flat than view Russia in a favorable light" is such a great way to put this!
"more Americans think the earth is flat than view Russia in a favorable light" is such a great way to put this!
And here, @UCLA protesters are committing a crime on video. False imprisonment is either a misdemeanor or a felony in California. Where is the security?
And here, @UCLA protesters are committing a crime on video. False imprisonment is either a misdemeanor or a felony in California. Where is the security?
Students are training in self-defense? I don’t know if I should laugh or cry. Students are being very badly served by elements who are deliberately seeking a violent confrontation with authorities. This is a very bad idea.
Students are training in self-defense? I don’t know if I should laugh or cry. Students are being very badly served by elements who are deliberately seeking a violent confrontation with authorities. This is a very bad idea.
False equivalence. In a democracy, people can voice their demands & effect policy change without violence. When they resort to illegal means (destroying property, attacks), they are NOT the same as people in a nondemocracy who have no other choice. Also, not a “brutal crackdown.”
False equivalence. In a democracy, people can voice their demands & effect policy change without violence. When they resort to illegal means (destroying property, attacks), they are NOT the same as people in a nondemocracy who have no other choice. Also, not a “brutal crackdown.”
Public opinion in Israel has turned against the war and in favor of a hostage deal. The latest poll shows just how little trust Israelis have in the war effort and Netanyahu's leadership and how badly they want the hostages back. The poll on Kann News has the following numbers:…
Public opinion in Israel has turned against the war and in favor of a hostage deal. The latest poll shows just how little trust Israelis have in the war effort and Netanyahu's leadership and how badly they want the hostages back. The poll on Kann News has the following numbers:…
This is the right policy.
As a CA taxpayer, I’ll be livid when @UCLA will have to pay to defend itself in the inevitable lawsuits that will follow if this is true. Outrageous bullshit. The protesters have no right to create Jew-free places on campus.
As a CA taxpayer, I’ll be livid when @UCLA will have to pay to defend itself in the inevitable lawsuits that will follow if this is true. Outrageous bullshit. The protesters have no right to create Jew-free places on campus.
Please tell me she’s not talking about Georgia! Please tell me she’s not talking about Georgia…
Please tell me she’s not talking about Georgia! Please tell me she’s not talking about Georgia…
The funniest thing here isn’t that she’s demanding the University to not “violently stop” food & water for students (who can literally just waltz over to the nearest shop to buy it) but that the University hasn’t done that. Literally being victimized by their own imagination.
The funniest thing here isn’t that she’s demanding the University to not “violently stop” food & water for students (who can literally just waltz over to the nearest shop to buy it) but that the University hasn’t done that. Literally being victimized by their own imagination.
See how the GD riot police are beating up the peaceful protesters rallying against the #RussianLaw #Tbilisi
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Unintended Consequenc.. @JRiordan
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DAY 208🇮🇱⚔️.. @JerusalemDiary
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Ink @InkResist
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loddar61 @loddar60
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Robin Jessen @RobinJessen
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ivy smith @smith_ivy1987
589 Followers 808 Following I am Vietnamese-American, came to the US in 1999, and am currently the founder and owner of a company specializing in selling household appliances.
James D. Long @prof_jameslong
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Silent @number316861401
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Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell
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Readerofthetime, vaxx.. @readerofthetime
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Zeko Zamba @ZekoZamba
259 Followers 2K Following
Richard Sutherland @RichardSutherl2
2K Followers 2K Following All views are my own. Retweets do not imply endorsement. “Memento mori ”
Richard Skalt @Richard_Skalt
864 Followers 5K Following Manager @DSI_ESMT @esmtberlin | working on cybersecurity, tech policy and EU regulation | Views my own
Hong Taehwa 🇰🇷 @taehwa_hong
244 Followers 365 Following @fpri Eurasia Program Fellow | PhD Candidate @Princeton | @Stanford & @Cambridge_Uni | 중앙일보 '나는 고발한다' & '소리내다' 신동아 '홍태화의 98년생 독해법' Retweets ≠ endorsements
Sophia @12Dssa12
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Dave (also @cursed.mo.. @6502_ftw
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JD @JD80145123
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Evušák 🇨🇿🇺.. @Evusak
234 Followers 1K Following
Julia Davis @JuliaDavisNews
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Mark Hertling @MarkHertling
481K Followers 205 Following Retired soldier. Loves family, dedicated to nation. Student of leadership, nat’l security & healthcare. Cardinals fan.
Timothy Snyder @TimothyDSnyder
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Illia Ponomarenko �.. @IAPonomarenko
1.3M Followers 2K Following Live straight out of Bucha Buy Me a Coffee: https://t.co/2jsZNdSj2u Also find me on BlueSky: https://t.co/rqus6D0CZd
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en
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(((Tendar))) @Tendar
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Rob Lee @RALee85
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Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture
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Darth Putin @DarthPutinKGB
603K Followers 209 Following Czar for life of all Russians. Master Strategist. Thought leader. Influencer. Content creator. Author. Wanted in 123 countries. Parody, apparently.
Def Mon @DefMon3
249K Followers 387 Following Money, Men and Munition is needed to win against Russia. Not Tom Clancy My Russophobia is not based on fear.
Sam Greene @samagreene
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Dale Copeland @Copela1492
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883K Followers 2K Following #1 bestselling author of 7 books including 'The War on the West'. @Spectator. Columnist @NYPost and @TheSun. Host of Uncancelled History: https://t.co/0XzJnchlbb
John Spencer @SpencerGuard
224K Followers 998 Following Chair of Urban Warfare Studies @warinstitute | Author, Understanding Urban Warfare | Host, UWP podcast | Thoughts my own ≠ Offical Gov | Follow, RTs ≠ endorse
Andrew Hammel @AndrewHammel1
6K Followers 4K Following "Truth springs from argument amongst friends." -- Hume
New York Times Pitchb.. @DougJBalloon
264K Followers 4K Following Parody. The really well-trained dog is the one that turns his somersault when there is no whip. merch: https://t.co/3bxNPhdkPL
Александр Я.. @yanevskyy
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RG Poulussen @rgpoulussen
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Washington Free Beaco.. @FreeBeacon
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Проф. Преоб�.. @prof_preobr
293K Followers 85 Following Запомните: вы должны молчать и слушать, молчать и слушать, что вам говорят!
Andrew Fox @Mr_Andrew_Fox
58K Followers 6K Following Former airborne soldier. Posts in a personal capacity. 🏴
Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la
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Agent Chris @spooked75
9K Followers 269 Following Former HUMINT US Army | Combat Vet | Former Government Anthropologist | Telling the truth Russians don't want to hear 🇺🇦🔱💪
Daractenus @Daractenus
5K Followers 999 Following
Blue Check Balding �.. @BaldingsWorld
65K Followers 1K Following Founder at https://t.co/uE9euoZBo3 and two time winner of Lifetime Achievment awards. Coined the phrase Galaxy Brain and Iowa Caucus Winner for the Davos Party
Marco Castelli @macastel3
20K Followers 2K Following Arbitrage commerce between the rest of the world, Italy and China. Shanghai based. SMB owner.
Dr. Gregory Mitrovich @gregmitrovich
938 Followers 3K Following PH.d IR/History, Cold War, grand strategy, author of award winning "Undermining the Kremlin,” Harvard/Stanford fellow, Rise and future of US; in WaPo, SCMP, TNI
Mike Black @MikeBlack114
9K Followers 640 Following Former USAF aircraft/munitions maintenance officer, current basically doing the same thing but not wearing camo pajamas to work Views are mine, not AF/DoD/etc
Olga Robinson @O_Rob1nson
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Shayan Sardarizadeh @Shayan86
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Grummz @Grummz
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Vera Mironova @vera_mironov
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David de Bruijn @dmdebruijn
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Kostya @kostyainexile
70 Followers 539 Following Chaotic good Ukrainian🇺🇦, dad, husband. Staff dev @Shopify, from Kyiv living in Ottawa. Russian warship, go fuck yourself
Yoshiko Herrera @yoshikoherrera
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DeepState UA @Deepstate_UA
39K Followers 52 Following Канал ґрунтовної аналітики внутрішньодержавної та міжнародної ситуації. Про події в Україні та Світі стисло, розгорнуто та влучно. 👉🏻https://t.co/9dVLrZHdgE
Naalsio @naalsio26
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Elise Giuliano @gegs32
1K Followers 970 Following Political science faculty @ColumbiaPoliSci, @HarrimanInst, Russian and Ukrainian politics, wrote a book on nationalist politics in Russia @CornellPress
volodymyr dubovyk @VolodymDubovyk
2K Followers 5K Following Professor of International Relations, Odesa, Ukraine; Senior Fellow, CEPA; Visiting Professor, Fletcher School, Tufts
Julia Kazdobina @JuliaK_Ukraine
294 Followers 211 Following Head of the Ukrainian Foundation for Security Studies, former Advisor to the Ukrainian Information Policy Minister, MA in IR from the University of Rochester.
UC Institute on Globa.. @UCIGCC
2K Followers 489 Following The UC Institute on Global Conflict & Cooperation (IGCC) addresses global challenges to peace and prosperity through research, training, and policy engagement.
Alexander S. Vindman .. @AVindman
953K Followers 2K Following Dad. Spouse to @natsechobbyist. Vet. NYT Best-selling Author. Ex NSC/WH Staff. Senior Advisor @votevets. Dr. & Senior Fellow, SAIS, JHU. 🧵 @alexander_s_vindman
Elise Lambert @lambert_elise
2K Followers 2K Following Journaliste au service international de @franceinfoplus / @franceinfo @AJARacisees
free speech absolutis.. @dhnexon
18K Followers 5K Following De facto left Twitter on 11/16/2023. See you at https://t.co/FdJJWIawj5.
Erik Melander @melander_erik
4K Followers 3K Following Professor of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala Uni @UU_Peace Director Alva Myrdal Centre for Nuclear Disarmament My tweets are personal, do not represent UU.
Astraia Intel 🇺�.. @astraiaintel
31K Followers 550 Following Covering developments from Ukraine, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific.
Cloooud |🇺🇦 @GloOouD
78K Followers 252 Following 🇺🇦Osinter, associated with NATO intelligence services and the Main Intelligence Directorate. War footage, news. Donate https://t.co/3wwzjCyRSs
Colby Badhwar 🇨�.. @ColbyBadhwar
23K Followers 370 Following Security columnist @InsiderEng | Defense news/analysis with an emphasis on procurement, arms sales & 🇺🇦 military aid. | RT≠endorsement. Opinions=mine.
Volodymyr Yermolenko @yermolenko_v
68K Followers 1K Following Ukrainian philosopher & journalist, chief editor at @ukraine_world - explaining Ukrainian politics & society in English. @InternewsUA. President at @PENUkraine
Ministry of Russian P.. @rusprocuratsia
3K Followers 5 Following
Olga Onuch (Онух) @oonuch
19K Followers 3K Following Professor Comparative & Ukrainian Politics @OfficialUoM Author Zelensky Effect. PI @IBIFUkraine Prev @HURI_Harvard @NuffieldCollege @politics_oxford @uoft
Dr China Bore (PhD) @Mcb18125448
1K Followers 2K Following China, commodities, believing in dinosaurs believing in me
Картина мас.. @Kartinamaslom5
43K Followers 162 Following #Ukraine , #War , #analytics , #UkraineRussiaWar,#UkraineWar
Dave Dalton @DaveDalton42
3K Followers 2K Following Political economist. PhD from UCL SSEES. My book, “The Ukrainian Oligarchy After the Euromaidan”, is out in Feb 2023 (https://t.co/VBx6l52drU). Personal account.
Randy Mott @randymot4
28K Followers 936 Following Republican activist, lawyer, environmental businessman, former infantry officer. American in Poland and Orlando
Jack Keane @gen_jackkeane
41K Followers 18 Following GEN Jack Keane (USA Ret.) | Retired 4 Star General | Former Vice Chief of Staff, U.S. Army | Chairman @TheStudyofWar | Retweet≠endorsement
Lew Anno Suport#Israe.. @anno1540
44K Followers 5K Following @mriyareport.org The president can't change the country on his own. But what can he do? He can give an example. זאל גאָט באַשיצן די מענטשן פון ישראלOrbán, Vučić and Ivanishvili are not Putin's proxies or minions. They are their own men. But the presence and actions of Russia in European and international politics enables their autocratic behaviour.
Despite some loud voices online, American support for Russia is close to zero. In fact, according to some polls, more Americans think the earth is flat than view Russia in a favorable light. Full analysis in today's video👇 youtu.be/c-qgGIUiGbU
Public opinion in Israel has turned against the war and in favor of a hostage deal. The latest poll shows just how little trust Israelis have in the war effort and Netanyahu's leadership and how badly they want the hostages back. The poll on Kann News has the following numbers:…
מה חושב הציבור על עסקת חטופים - והאם נתניהו עושה מספיק לשחרורם? | סקר כאן חדשות @SuleimanMas1 | #חדשותהערב
The University of Chicago, as usual, striking the right balance. Worth reading in full. It is exactly right. President Alivisatos’ Note on the Encampment (April 29, 2024) Dear Members of the University Community, Just a few hours ago, a group of students established an…
So the press conference jihadist is a PhD student named Johannah King-Slutzky (really) and this is what she's working on. Dying. Absolutely dying. Beyond parody. @TheBabylonBee couldn't top this if they tried.
Reporter grills Columbia student after she demands the university help feed protestors occupying Hamilton Hall: "It seems like you're saying, 'we want to be revolutionaries, we want to take over this building, now would you please bring us some food'."
Tensions rise in Georgia. Darkest days are ahead. Pray for us. Help us expose the Russian government for what they are internally. Sanction these fuckers!!!!
@slantchev @k_sonin @Columbia Organizers already said that even with div they wouldn’t “stop”. Unis insulate students from law enforcement and allow protest w no physical effort (camping). It’s also a safe space not bc people necessarily care abt free speech, but bc lots of faculty/adms agree w the position
@llisjak @slantchev Our book w @OxanaShevel is a direct critique and offers an alternative theory. Let's see if we get sufficient traction for it or if many will continue thinking of him as a heavy-weight on the topic, despite his mistakes and manipulations of facts
@slantchev @k_sonin @Columbia I think there's an interesting point here: the targets with whom you have the most legitimate grievance or have the most power to do things that further your interests and the targets who are the most receptive audiences to your message are often not the same targets.
If Hamas says yes, Israel must accept the hostage deal. I have always supported Israel going all the way and defeating Hamas. But it has become clear that this government is either unwilling or unable to do so. If Israel rejects a deal on the table, it faces the worst possible…
True story: had a donor offer to pay my salary and approached a Conservative think tank arranging an interview. At the interview, I explained what I would be doing with data, the importance to provide detail about Chinese activities. The person interviewing me had zero clue what…
The US conservative movement suffers an acute shortage of smart people, forcing them to rely on dissident left elements to do the work. slowboring.com/p/what-the-lef…
@gregmitrovich @slantchev @DrRadchenko @PopovaProf @PatPorter76 On the one hand, nuclear use is unlikely and there are escalation steps short of use that Putin could take e.g. a testing resumption. On the other hand, we just don't know. The risk shouldn't diminish Western aid to Ukraine, but should counter ideas such as a NATO NFZ or NDZ...
@slantchev @PopovaProf Yeah. Same guy who believes China was to blame for the Sino-Japanese war. x.com/StevenGlinert/…
Peak Mearsheimer is “actually china was the aggressor that started the second sino Japanese war”
There is a parody news site in Russian, @ia_panorama, very much like the brilliant @TheOnion. Two weeks ago, Panorama run a fake news story about @TuckerCarlson interviewing Alexander Dugin, an eclectic nationalist/imperialist/anti-Ukraine Putin whisperer. Funny, right?
@slantchev @Noahpinion The Russians are very far out there, but within the US establishment too there are theories and theorists of how nations work that are pretty unsound. Some of these are quite aligned with the Russians. That is a concern.
@slantchev @ColbyBadhwar Mearsheimer is an expert on WWII so it’s hard to parse how he can say this nonsense.
@slantchev Lest we forget the bombing of Helsinki from 1939 to 1944. Even Vienna, where I live, was bombed by Soviet planes. They were notoriously inaccurate. In Helsinki for example 90 % of their bombs landed outside the city.
Increasing signs that the hostage-ceasefire deal will be accepted by Hamas. Probably after some adjustments. A source in the Hamas told the Quds Network that "the Egyptian offer is the best we have seen in the last few months. It includes an Israeli withdrawal from spots it…
Radchenko with a recipe for deliberate cognitive disarray. We can’t know; we can’t tell; Putin might do this or that, and so on. The mere focusing on Putin’s nuclear threats is a win for Putin.
While there is good reason to believe that the Russian regime engages in nuclear blackmail and nuclear bluff, there is no reason to suppose that it *always* bluffs and will bluff, irrespective of circumstances. My original tweet indicates the importance of, shall we say,…
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