samenic @samenic

Private credit just hit the brakes, and the numbers are not subtle. New US direct lending issuance fell from about $74.6 billion in the first quarter to about $44.8 billion in the three months ending May, according to PitchBook. That is a massive slowdown in a single quarter. Private equity-backed borrowing dropped to about $28.5 billion. Lending tied to leveraged buyouts fell to about $15.2 billion. This is the private credit engine losing speed at the exact moment it needs confidence. And the reasons are not a mystery. Fundraising is still well below its peak. Redemption requests are elevated and still climbing. Investors are scrutinizing loan quality. And borrowers are stuck in a flat, gone-bad economy. For years private credit took market share because it was fast and certain. It could finance deals when the banks and the syndicated markets could not, because everyone assumed the economy would be good forever. That assumption is breaking. Now these funds are preserving liquidity and stretching to get deals done. So they have far less appetite to finance private equity at aggressive valuations. And that is where private equity gets pulled in. It ran on the leverage that private credit provided, and that engine is reversing. Here is the standoff. Private equity firms will not sell assets at lower prices, because that means admitting yesterday's marks were too high. Buyers will not pay peak multiples in a higher-rate, slower-growth world. Lenders will not underwrite the old assumptions. Investors do not want more money locked up. So the whole machine slows, grinds to a halt, and starts to reverse. One guy called it constipation.

Stock Market hits most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression 🤯👀

Greenland is now asking Trump to invade, hoping to secure a deal similar to the one Iran got.

@Trader__007 5.92 now.....

I am in love with this quote from Fahrenheit 451.

I would suggest this diagnosis from Rayner is for an economy some parts of the Labour Party believe exists - not the reality of one where the tax take is already at an 80 year high, concentration of tax on high earners & on assets is already high by international standards. The minimum wage has moved way higher than the international benchmark, and growth is clearly impaired by the frictions of the high cost of energy, building & capital. I would predict that if the Rayner statement became a detailed policy platform you would see the Gilt vs Other Sovereign spread widen, not narrow.

Angela Rayner @AngelaRayner

2 months ago

Our party has suffered a historic defeat. Many good Labour colleagues have lost their seats despite working hard for those they represented. We have lost good Labour administrations and lost the chance for more. What we are doing isn’t working, and it needs to change. This may

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(I recommend reading this for anyone currently invested in the market or interested in learning what's going on) 🦔$2.6 trillion in S&P 500 call options traded in a single session yesterday, the highest single-day notional volume in the history of the index. The chart above shows what that growth curve actually looks like, with daily call volume sitting under $200 billion as recently as 2019 and now running at multiples of that on a regular basis. The combination of zero-day-to-expiration options, retail platforms that gamified options trading, and algorithmic market makers running delta-neutral books has turned the largest equity index in the world into something closer to a leveraged casino than a price discovery mechanism. My Take I want to walk through what is actually happening here because most retail traders chasing these calls do not understand the machinery on the other side of their trades. When you buy a call option, a market maker like Citadel or Jane Street sells it to you and then buys the underlying stock to hedge their exposure. As the stock price rises, they buy more shares to stay neutral, which pushes the price higher, which pulls in more retail call buyers, which forces more hedging. This is called a gamma squeeze, and it works in both directions. The same mechanic that drives prices up violently can pull them down even faster when the flow reverses, which is why these moves tend to end in sharp drawdowns rather than gentle corrections. The piece that worries me as someone who covers this stuff is how much of this volume is concentrated in zero-day options that expire the same session. A retail trader buying a $5 call that expires at 4 PM is taking a position with leverage that would have required a margin account and a series-7 license twenty years ago, and the platforms now make it as easy as ordering takeout. Market makers love this volume because they make money on the spread regardless of direction, but the buyers on the other side are absorbing all the risk in a structure designed to extract pennies from them at scale. If you take nothing else from this post, understand that $2.6 trillion in daily call volume is not a sign the market is healthy, it is a sign that speculation has overwhelmed investment, and historically that pattern resolves in ways that hurt the people who came late to it. I am not telling anyone what to do with their money, but knowing how the machinery works is how you avoid being the exit liquidity for someone else's algorithm. Hedgie🤗

Much debate about this, which is great. Three extra points; 1. I’m not advocating it, or opposing it, just pointing it out. Don’t shoot the messenger! 2. PR doesn’t need a referendum, or a manifesto commitment. Just a simple act of parliament 3. I’d put money on it happening now. Two party politics in a digital world of endless choice is surely dead

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

2 months ago

There is an escape route for Labour from certain disaster at the general election: use their Commons majority to ram through PR. It’s cynical, + they’d never govern alone again, but it locks Reform out of No10. The left (Lab, Gr, LD) still have a majority over the right in the UK

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The Two Different Paths: We are about to find out which path we are on.  As I said in my last note, from my conversations with a number of world leaders in a number of countries, and as seems obvious to me, there will either be a) a U.S. win over Iran, which will require taking control over the Strait of Hormuz and assuring that Iran's nuclear program is dead—i.e., defanging Iran, or b) a U.S. loss, which is the result if these things don't happen. Most senior policy makers I speak with believe that we are likely headed down the b) path and that will be made clear soon. It needs to be made clear soon because continuing on the current path or being more forceful will cause sharp increases in oil and gasoline prices and great difficulties during the high travel season, bad political consequences for President Trump, and difficulties in his upcoming meeting with President Xi in China. So, we should have that verdict soon. The perception that the b) path is most likely is already leading to a view that the United States will not be a reliable protector against possible opponents like Russia in Europe and/or China in Asia, and that is already leading to actions being taken that are sensible in light of that belief, like leaders paying "tribute" visits to China. As explained before, this set of circumstances is likely to have some analogous consequences to Great Britain losing the Suez Canal in 1956. By the way, this is also happening at a time when China is earning huge amounts of money through its very strong exports—so much money that it is difficult for those Chinese earning the money to know what to do with it. This is making China a very important player in world capital markets as well as world trade. In other words, these events are making China geopolitically and financially stronger.

@TicTocTick What are fountain soda drinks??

PAID VERSION → FREE VERSION 1. Netflix Premium → pluto TV 2. Spotify → SoundCloud/Audiomack 3. Apple TV+ → Freevee 4. Disney+ → Pluto TV 5. YouTube Premium → NewPipe 6. Amazon Prime Video → Tubi 7. Audible → LibriVox 8. Hulu Live → Roku Channel 9. Crunchyroll Premium → RetroCrush 10. YouTube Music → Audiomack 11. HBO Max → Plex Free Movies 12. Apple Arcade → Poki 13. Xbox Live Gold → Steam Free Games 14. PlayStation Plus → Epic Games Store(free weekly games) Save this list, it could be extremely useful.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Strait blockade just produced its first real result. Tehran has dropped its demand that the U.S. lift the Strait of Hormuz blockade before ceasefire talks can begin. That was the hardest precondition on the table. Now it's gone. Iran is also offering to put its nuclear program on the table in exchange for sanctions relief, and is signaling it's ready to return to negotiations in Pakistan as early as next week. After months of deadlock, this is the first real sign that a deal is possible. Source: Wall Street Journal

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Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal

2 months ago

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump just declared the war with Iran is OVER. He officially notified Congress that “the hostilities that began on February 28 have terminated.” See y’all in 60 days, when the clock resets.

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@TicTocTick God bless and Thankyou

🚨 S&P 500 HAS ONE PATTERN IT NEVER BREAKS Every major top pulled back to the exact same level - 0.5 Fib 2020, 2022, 2025 - three times in a row The fourth top is forming right now - and the 0.5 sits at $6,000 The pattern has held through a pandemic, a rate hike cycle, and a geopolitical crisis - nothing broke it yet $6,000 is the target It's only a matter of time NOTIFS ON!

NoName @WhaleNoName

2 months ago

🚨 S&P 500 VOLUME IS DISGUSTING 🚨 The price remains high - but nobody's really buying it Look at the left side of this chart - that's exactly what happened in early 2025 Quiet rally with no real volume. Then volume returned, triggering a major crash For now the right side is

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🚨 BREAKING 🇻🇪 VENEZUELA IS NEXT TO LEAVE OPEC AFTER THE UAE! VENEZUELA SITS ON THE BIGGEST OIL RESERVES ON EARTH - AROUND 20% OF THE GLOBAL TOTAL. WHEN IT HAPPENS - IRAN LOSES ITS POWER OVER OIL. MILLIONS OF BARRELS FLOOD THE MARKET. EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR EVERY ASSET! 👀

🚨 THE WAR BECOMES ILLEGAL IN 3 DAYS In 3 days the US government hits a deadline that almost nobody is talking about. May 1. That’s when the War Powers Act clock runs out on the Iran war. The war started February 28, Trump formally notified Congress on March 2. Under the 1973 law that starts a 60 day window, after which he either gets congressional authorization or he is legally required to begin withdrawing troops. That window closes Thursday. Congress has tried to invoke the War Powers Act five times since the war began. Five times Republicans blocked it. The Senate voted it down 52-47 just two weeks ago. Trump has never asked Congress for authorization once. Some Republicans are already drawing a line. Senator John Curtis said publicly he will not support ongoing military action beyond 60 days without a vote. The House Foreign Affairs chair warned the president could lose support if the conflict runs into May. After May 1 Trump has 3 options. – Ask Congress for an authorization to use military force. – Begin winding down operations. – Or invoke a 30 day extension by certifying in writing that more time is needed for safe troop withdrawal. He has already said there is “no time pressure.” The White House believes the War Powers Act doesn’t apply to the commander-in-chief. That is a direct challenge to a law that has existed for 53 years. Thursday will tell you a lot about whether Congress actually has any power left. We will keep you updated. Turn on notifications this is extremely important. Many people will wish they followed us sooner.

“The poor die defending the rules that keep them poor because they mistake obedience for belonging.” ~ George Orwell #WakeUpEverybody✊🏿

🚨 HOLY CRAP! President Trump just revealed that after he canceled the Pakistan-Iran trip, they SENT HIM A BETTER DEAL Art of the Deal, in motion. "They gave us a paper that should have been better. And INTERESTINGLY, immediately when I canceled it, within 10 MINUTES, we got a new paper that was much better!" "I'll deal with whoever runs the show...but there's no reason to wait 2 days, have people traveling for 16, 17 hours...When they want, they can call me, we have all the cards!" "That whole deal is not complicated: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon." @RapidResponse47 🔥 The man knows what he's doing.

Quote of the day 👇

The UK full new state pension is £11,973 a year. The poverty line for a single adult is around £14,500. You'll work 50 years paying into a system that, by its own definition, retires you straight into poverty.