Signum @realSignum
automated data analysis bluesky: @realsignum.bsky.social telegram channel: https://t.co/6rd4rbvRP0 Joined April 2017-
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(inflation linked) TIPS outperforms nominal bond (IEF) since Iran war (Feb 28), and entire inflation cycle since 2021, on total return basis.
"this is a massive mis-priced tail risk"
I am not predicting that it will, but having followed how everything unfolded since day one, this is a massive mis-priced tail risk. It’s futile to debate inflation vs demand destruction shock, the bottom line is this will hit earnings and sentiment like a hammer. 11/11
@siddiqui71 Are you in "for you" mode? If so, try "following mode", and "most recent" not "popular".
TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) will outperform in this situation as it gains in bond rally and extra return on inflation rise.
Once bonds start rallying with oil, you’ll know the it is turning from an inflation trade to a recession trade…probably starts by the end of this week imo
@FactSet Here is my multi-factor valuation index.
Some perspectives on 2/10 curves for US, Japan and Germany over thirty years. All have been steepening in last couple year, and Japan is the steepest. But they are still in the lower range in 30 years. bsky.app/profile/realsi…
10Y TIPS, 2.3% breakeven, 1.7% real yield, can be a good investment if WSJ opinion is true, as 3% is a new target effectively. WSJ: Getting Used to 3% Inflation wsj.com/opinion/inflat…
if this argument is true, then JGB long end yields aren't high enough. x.com/Brad_Setser/st…
And there are more Japanese specific arguments (which I tend to discount but perhaps wrongly) that Japan is now entering a new era of higher inflation and higher rates -- and thus Japanese institutions aren't yet comfortable with current JGB yields. To be continued 5/5
Japan's 10Y/30Y curve/spread reached 160 bps, unprecedented both from its own history and relatively to US and Germany.
also check out my daily automated update on US Treasury curve, both nominal and real yields. example below bsky.app/profile/realsi…
.82 correlation over nearly 20yrs but Scotty B’s models say we need 150+ bps cuts Via Leuthold Group
ISM service price paid (white line) is rising fast.
All foreign demand for Treasuries in the last 12ms of data (through June) came from financial and custodial centers. Reflects the fall off in official purchases (tho some official purchases are now hidden) + rise of leveraged investors in the market. Big structural shift 1/
This chart is 2Y inflation swap rate, i.e. market's inflation expectation, which is clearly trending up, further away from the norm in the past. Is this a good time to cut policy rate? It doesn't look so. If the Fed caves in to pressure, inflation will be likely more unpleasant
Core inflation YOY among the Eurozone, Japan and US over thirty years.
Government's cooking the number is always a risk for owning TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities).
@RBAdvisors 💯 that's exactly how I feel too!
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