marginofdanger @marginofdanger

Sharing my personal views, not investment advice. Please do your own work. Joined November 2022

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

a day ago

Really interesting how $GO had truly massive insider buying and the stock barely reacted, allowing the investor to accumulate a sizable position. This one has worked quite nicely. x.com/marginofdanger…

marginofdanger @marginofdanger

2 months ago

Grocery Outlet $GO has had a very large amount of very recent insider buying around the current share price. Interestingly the lead director’s (former Hellman and Friedman partner who has been involved forever) and CEO’s form 4s caused the stock to bounce, and then they kept on

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

a day ago

@ClarkSquareCap Don't be afraid for pay more childcare!

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

a week ago

@yenoms @WeedWatch MAPS derangement syndrome

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

a week ago

Wild to me that when $MAPS was trading 2x higher, it was a seemingly beloved consensus long on here, and now due to STRATEGIC delisting it's traded off massively, sits at net cash, all while generating $40 mm of EBITDA.

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

a week ago

Sometimes pattern recognition works $WEBC x.com/marginofdanger…

marginofdanger @marginofdanger

a year ago

$WEBC, a very illiquid OTC name, is worth attention. $181/$195 right now. One month ago when $WEBC was $160-170, the company paid a sizable premium to buy back 17% of the company's stock at $200/share (in a block trade), bringing the Weber family's ownership from 65% to 79%.

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

2 weeks ago

@TommyDeepwater Not a bad outcome after the debacle on Platinum Explorer

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

2 weeks ago

$TIPT director buys ~1k shares at 17.45 on Wednesday and Fortegra deal should close today x.com/marginofdanger…

marginofdanger @marginofdanger

3 weeks ago

$TIPT filed an 8-K this morning where they said they expected the Fortegra deal to close by Friday 5/29. Pro forma TBV is ~$24/share, stock last 17.17.

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

2 weeks ago

Another great quarter from $WEBC with accelerating top line and gross margin expansion. Company continues to buy back and refresh buyback. x.com/marginofdanger…

marginofdanger @marginofdanger

3 months ago

$WEBC reports continued improvement in results, with large yoy increases in revenues, gross margin and earnings. They stepped up buybacks again in the quarter, repurchasing 15k shares (~2% O/S).

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

2 weeks ago

Don't normally focus on sellside notes but in this instance Pablo Zuanic is on point re: $MAPS

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

3 weeks ago

@_lf29 I'll take the over

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

3 weeks ago

$TIPT filed an 8-K this morning where they said they expected the Fortegra deal to close by Friday 5/29. Pro forma TBV is ~$24/share, stock last 17.17.

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

3 weeks ago

I don't know if I fully agree with that. $CBBI trades at 0.4x for two reasons: 1) OTC listing and 2) no buyback. If there was a company sponsored buyback, it would probably trade at 0.6-0.7x and therefore the buybacks would be less accretive. Also if you look at my numbers you'll see that the projected share price in the non-buyback scenario is $16.16 in five years plus $2.50 in dividends vs. $19.10 in the buyback scenario. Pretty close. If you're a short-term holder, you want the buyback to re-rate this to 0.6-0.7x. If you want to long-term compound, it's not clear the buyback is that much better to me.

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

3 weeks ago

$CBBI followers- the tables below show two scenarios assuming a sale in 5 years at 100% of TBV: 1) Investor reinvests the .50/yr dividend into more shares 2) CBBI suspends dividend and instead does a share repurchase The analysis shows that the results are roughly the same (BEFORE TAXES). The point here is to show that if you reinvest your dividend you can somewhat replicate the economics of a buyback. One assumption that is likely optimistic in the company buyback scenario is that they'd continue to be able to buy back at 0.4x TBV. If you tinker with that, the buyback is less valuable. cc: @mwphnh

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

4 weeks ago

I’m going to send you a spreadsheet later which will lay it out. The cheap stock price is a gift to investors. If they were more aggressive on a buyback, the stock would trade higher and the buybacks wouldn’t be as accretive. If you take your after tax dividend and buy back stock at sub 0.5x TBV you will do very well.

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

2 months ago

$CBBI continues to do its thing. TBVPS up to $25.57/share. Run-rate earnings probably around $2 implying a mid 5x P/E. If you don't like the lack of buyback, reinvest the dividend into more shares. Biggest discount of its peers due to OTC listing and lack of buyback. $OPBK raises dividend and reports slight improvement in EPS vs. last quarter. Seems to be trading in the mid 7s P/E. $PCB reports and trading maybe in the 8s on P/E. $HAFC trading around 10x P/E and hitting ATH. A premium vs $OPBK and $PCB for a larger balance sheet. All very cheap.

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marginofdanger @marginofdanger

4 weeks ago

@mwphnh The ratios won’t change - you’re right about that, but you can replicate the economics by reinvesting the dividend (adjusting for dividend taxes).