Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares
Escaped the Vampire Squid, surviving in the wasteland. Investing in bottlecaps, US UK EU & global assets. Also, jokes. Liking is not endorsing. Do your own DD. London Joined March 2012-
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PCE +3.3% and Core PCE +4.2% year on year. An acceleration from June, but in-line with estimates. Where next, incomes and prices? And how will the Fed read this?
Current FinTwit stock cases breakdown: 28% “This is a great company” 22% “Look! Chart!” 20% “Down 85%? Will bounce like $META!” 12% “Huge losses? Investing in the FuTuRe!” 10% Delusional forecast 7% “But, capital returns!” 1% Financial analysis 0% How returns will work from here
OnlyFans generated $5.6bn in gross payments, $1.1bn in revenue and a $525m profit in 2022. The number of “creators” increased +47% to 3.2 million, and the number of “fans” +27% to 239 million (!). The owner paid himself a $338m dividend. 🫤
Seldom seen so many unilaterally bearish market calls on Twitter as in the last 24 hours. 🤔
Will those who bought large cap tech early this year take the profit at some point, or not? Or add? I’m not talking about those who held losers all the way down (they’re still down), but funds who bought new positions with cash inflows. What market dynamics could we see here?
$NVDA BEATS LIKE A SCREAMING ORGASM! 🤤 💦 +101% growth, Data Center +171% y/y, +141% q/q. 😃 Record gross margin at 70.1%, +5.5pts on last q. $6.4bn in OpCF, up from $2.9bn last q. Q3 guide $16bn rev vs $12.5bn consensus! JUST INSANE! 🚀 Jensen is EMPEROR OF ALL TECH! 👑
Goldman’s list of “controversial” stocks: Owned by many hedge funds (popular!), yet with high short interest. Quite a few earnings season dogs on this list, like $PTON $DKS and $FTCH. A handful of winners like $ANF.
Largest short positions by hedge funds: $TSLA on top, by far! Otherwise a mixed bag of companies & sectors. Semiconductors still looks like the most shorted sector on here, but $NVDA which was the clear #1 on this list exactly a year ago is no longer on it.
Flashback from a year ago: $NVDA was the single largest short position among hedge funds, and semiconductors the #1 shorted sector. Noone had even heard of AI! 🥲 Energy was the #2 sector and has done… fine.
Flashback from a year ago: $NVDA was the single largest short position among hedge funds, and semiconductors the #1 shorted sector. Noone had even heard of AI! 🥲 Energy was the #2 sector and has done… fine.
The ARM financials look sad! Revenue at $2.68bn actually shrank 1% last year and 2.5% last Q, earnings dropped 53% last Q. They want to IPO this at $60-70bn (according to CNBC), which would imply 22-26x revenue. What 🤡 would pay this? And what is Masa smoking?
$NVDA up a sweet 16% or $160bn since last week’s “generational buy-the-dip opportunity”. 😝 I’m not sure people realise how much global wealth is now fully dependent on NVidia printing strong numbers & guide on Wednesday. If it keeps going, so will others. If not…
The weirdest thing about Goldman’s whole foray into mass market banking is that it tried to run a McDonald’s-type business with the cost base of a #1 rated 3-star Michelin restaurant. You can’t cook and sell 99c hamburgers with a cost base of a $750 tasting menu.
Adyen continues to fall. Now down more than 50%. When you buy something at 26x forward revenue, you better be ready for the repercussions when growth slows and margin tanks, and people start running for the door... $ADYEY
Business idea: Ozempic, but for bad financial decisions.
After the Adyen earnings, Stripe investors are now down 50% on the latest $6.5bn round from March, which all went to cash out employees. But at least they don’t have to mark to market, so they can delude themselves thinking they’re fine. And so the wheel of time turns...
$FTCH This inflamed wart of a “business” twitching like a vampire being splashed with holy water. Revenue -1.3% at $572m, missed by $80m (~14%) 🤮, -$281m NET LOSS, cash burn -$211m + SBC $116m. Debt looks high! CEO has the credibility of a backstreet hooker: all promises & pump!
Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺�.. @agnostoxxx
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The ARM financials look sad! Revenue at $2.68bn actually shrank 1% last year and 2.5% last Q, earnings dropped 53% last Q. They want to IPO this at $60-70bn (according to CNBC), which would imply 22-26x revenue. What 🤡 would pay this? And what is Masa smoking?
Do we need to put @ecommerceshares on a milk carton? We need your take on the $ARM pricing!
The ARM financials look sad! Revenue at $2.68bn actually shrank 1% last year and 2.5% last Q, earnings dropped 53% last Q. They want to IPO this at $60-70bn (according to CNBC), which would imply 22-26x revenue. What 🤡 would pay this? And what is Masa smoking?
@KoyfinCharts $BRDS - Former CFO left a trail of financial restatements due to improper revenue recognition and joined Binance (hmm). @ecommerceshares last write up was too good not to share. x.com/ecommerceshare…
If you’re wondering “where all that money went”, this is the scooter rental co’s $BRDS founder’s Miami mansion. Bird went public at a $2.5bn valuation, and now trades at $98m. Investors lost 96%. Ponzilords at banks, in media & on here enabled this massive grift. Who’s the fool?
Dumb money rusar för att få köpa ARM till 20x sales. #aktier #pratapengar #bubbla
The ARM financials look sad! Revenue at $2.68bn actually shrank 1% last year and 2.5% last Q, earnings dropped 53% last Q. They want to IPO this at $60-70bn (according to CNBC), which would imply 22-26x revenue. What 🤡 would pay this? And what is Masa smoking?
Feasting with my buddy @fkronawitter1 . I don’t know about Huawei vs Apple phones, but Chinese roast duck is the best in the world🥹🙏 @MiamKitty PS. If you think it’s a coincidence the Chinese banned $AAPL same time that Huawei launched a new phone, I got a duck to sell you😝
Good presentation from $INTC's head of Foundry at the Goldman conference. This is the most interesting story for Intel, as the company has been bleeding share in the datacenter and on the client side. The success of the company will really depend on the success of this business,…
Guess what are the two largest weights in the S&P 500 VALUE Index? Microsoft, P/E of 33 Amazon, P/E of 92 Tell me again how indexing makes markets more efficient and does not favor megacap tech stocks 😂😂 What do you say, @profplum99 ?
There's an epic Battle for Narrative right now. Each side is vying to get a landmark share placing out successfully: - On one side, OPEC wants to pump the Saudi Aramco placing through the Inflation narrative - On the other side, Wall Street wants to pump the ARM IPO through the…
Did bugs just evolve their way into avoiding roads lol? I remember when my dad drove for a long time you could hardly see with all the dead bugs
Do NOT, under ANY circumstances, sign into your Apple ID account thru a 3rd party client!!! Cybersecurity analyst here 👋🏼 you will open a backdoor access point that you can’t control or close…that you WILLING handed the keys over…just to send iMessages to a non-iPhone? Don’t.
$PYPL Growth Analysis - A value trap or on the cusp of a revival akin to META's post-4Q22 3x surge? $PYPL Gross Profit (GP) Breakdown - Braintree's Buzz vs. Real Impact on $PYPL: Post the spotlight from $ADYEN highlighting competitions, Braintree has emerged as a focal point in…
This is the reason why Patreon continues to face challenges tied to their growth and viability as a platform, as they’re disconnected from the reality where OnlyFans exists & dominates the market. 🤦♂️
OnlyFans generated $5.6bn in gross payments, $1.1bn in revenue and a $525m profit in 2022. The number of “creators” increased +47% to 3.2 million, and the number of “fans” +27% to 239 million (!). The owner paid himself a $338m dividend. 🫤
Solar deployment is now happening at a roughly $500B annualized rate. Which technology deployments were larger than this? The US's aircraft production during WWII seems to have peaked at maybe $400B (inflation-adjusted). Global datacenter construction appears to be maybe…
@Culture_Crit Patience and consistency Which also happens to be the recipe for anything worth having
How on earth did they do this without power tools or modern machines?
@ecommerceshares Might be time to upgrade the account to "Starfield Capital"
After an amazing 2023, I sold my entire portfolio on August 15 for a +27% YTD gain. "I've always thought the way to build a long-term track record is when you really see the ball - swing really big. And when you don't see the ball, don't swing." -Stan Druckenmiller-
The predict'oooooooooorr
MAN WH0 HAS PREDICTED A 40% DECLINE IN STOCKS EVERY YEAR SINCE 2010 PREDICTS A 40% DECLINE IN STOCKS AFTER STOCKS FALL 25%.
Some things shouldn't be possible to carve from stone, but the master sculptors managed it anyway. A thread of impossible details of marble sculptures 🧵