Marcel @artimidore
housing, economy, etc. Joined August 2014-
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I've been highlighting the weak real estate market in Philadelphia (especially Center City). This seems to have been a casualty, given the bank's focus on the Philadelphia market Philadelphia is in the top 5 highest rates of foreclosure in the country (among much bigger cities)
I've been highlighting the weak real estate market in Philadelphia (especially Center City). This seems to have been a casualty, given the bank's focus on the Philadelphia market Philadelphia is in the top 5 highest rates of foreclosure in the country (among much bigger cities)
Or... maybe construction is a recessionary indicator as it has been in every other recession, and months of supply going above 6 months for new homes indeed indicates downward pressure on new home prices, as it always has? No, no, it must be different this time
Or... maybe construction is a recessionary indicator as it has been in every other recession, and months of supply going above 6 months for new homes indeed indicates downward pressure on new home prices, as it always has? No, no, it must be different this time
"Soon" doing a lot of work here
Price cuts just keep soaring. Redfin has them hitting 6%. Realtor is showing a *53%* YoY increase in price cuts as of last week (trying this again since there was a glitch with the images last time)
Sticking my neck out here with a prediction Housing unaffordability is out-of-control & unsustainable. I think price/income ratios will ultimately mean revert. What will cause housing to reprice? Higher unemployment. Sooner or later we'll get it. And that will crack housing.
Sticking my neck out here with a prediction Housing unaffordability is out-of-control & unsustainable. I think price/income ratios will ultimately mean revert. What will cause housing to reprice? Higher unemployment. Sooner or later we'll get it. And that will crack housing.
Soon-to-be inventory flood in California à la the inventory flood in Florida? Should be interesting...
Soon-to-be inventory flood in California à la the inventory flood in Florida? Should be interesting...
She seems scared 😅
We know the answer 😂
Mortgage originators promoting occupancy fraud getting charged. Not a small operator, either. For those who don't want to pay a PE owned entity a subscription fee for their reprint of a DOJ press release, link to DOJ press release in the comments.
Mortgage originators promoting occupancy fraud getting charged. Not a small operator, either. For those who don't want to pay a PE owned entity a subscription fee for their reprint of a DOJ press release, link to DOJ press release in the comments.
"The advance Q1 GDP report, with 1.6% annualized increase, was well below expectations" calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/bea-re…
To my knowledge, none of the attestations of a housing shortage have taken these Census revisions into account
To my knowledge, none of the attestations of a housing shortage have taken these Census revisions into account
Going so slowly...
I replied to this but it's my question as well
I replied to this but it's my question as well
Haven't updated on losses in Philadelphia recently, but tbh they've been accelerating. First time I saw any was in December; now I have a list of around 60 Here are two that came out just today...both not even trying to get what they paid @GRomePow @KirkChivas @TrishaFLsun
If we were to add these additional new homes to current for-sale inventory numbers (assuming most are not on MLS), we'd cut the inventory disparity vs. 2018 from -35% to as little as -18% 👀 Keep in mind: existing home sales are down 25% from 2018
If we were to add these additional new homes to current for-sale inventory numbers (assuming most are not on MLS), we'd cut the inventory disparity vs. 2018 from -35% to as little as -18% 👀 Keep in mind: existing home sales are down 25% from 2018 https://t.co/TiVt5832Sp
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@wabuffo Delinquency and charge offs are up across the board versus 3 & 6 months ago. Some issuers are above 2019 levels.
@wabuffo March having normal seasonal decline in DQs See blue series 2012-2019 avg
I shouldn’t say this, but I will since I am an anon account. I always talk about layoffs, and the last thing I ever want to see is someone get laid off. I just spent five months being unemployed (U6), and it was my fault. My son was starting preschool and I was ready to move on…
Let's check in on another generally sub-prime credit card issuer... This time, Capital One ($COF). DQ's down here too in March (4.48% in March - vs 4.72% in Feb and 4.78% in Jan). Another macrobear narrative starts to go down in flames....
@texasrunnerDFW @texasrunnerDFW I have followed you for awhile and sensed the change in tune. You essentially started to sound like the BTC crowd, which is fine. I think the challenge is not changing opinions, but whether that was due to losing original conviction before it all played out.
@texasrunnerDFW Fine to change opinions. It is not fine to offer fodder to an army of market controllers and price defenders who already have munitions and positions to blow every dissenting voice out of the water as the established behemoth. They don’t need help. The public do.
I'm just going to leave this here.
This was my CRE "oh sh*t" moment.
Republic First Bank of Pennsylvania failed primarily due to its mortgage business #MacroEdge
Another brokerage antitrust settlement awaits approval.
Everyone wants to try to predict the future: When I think of the economy slowing down or going into a recession I like to use an analogy like a heart attack or a virus. Doctors use all kinds of indicators like blood pressure, cholesterol levels, weight, etc. to evaluate…
This is a great thread about how a subtle tweak to our building law, already in place in Seattle / NYC, would allow higher quality apartments that better fit into neighborhoods. Here in Philly it could make a huge difference by bringing quality apartments to small vacant lots.
Hey Austin, Single Stair Reform alert! The comment period for the IBC amendments closes tomorrow and we’ve got a pretty good shot at getting Single Stair reform. publicinput.com/w1676?lang=en Please voice your support here!
I’m really stunted in this area. I’ve also lost friends bc I just can’t give that much of myself to friends. I’ve never been to a bachelorette party, I’ve never gone on a girls trip, done fewer than 10 girls nights out.
"but adding a bunch of market rate apartments for the sake of supply won't lower rents"
@CaHSRA I agree with other comments here: Europe and Asia have decades of learning here…use it…don’t invent something just to be different. “Proudly found elsewhere” works in this situation just fine.
@CaHSRA There doesn’t need to be all 3 of the top 3 options, they all provide basically the same amenity. Are there any similar style seats for people traveling with others? Or are they all isolated too?
@CaHSRA This sucks, just make it as cheap as possible. It’s supposed to be 3 hours between SF and LA, nobody needs huge cocoon seats. We need to get people out of planes and cars, that means plentiful affordable seats
@CaHSRA 👎Please pursue a “low-cost carrier” model of a single seat type like Ouigo and Avlo—we will need the capacity and tickets will already cost too much. Fares should be less than Amtrak while being 10x faster!
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