Tim Travis @TimTravisValue

Anyone still defending this system is a joke. Require Voter ID. Stop mass mail-in ballots. Hand-count paper ballots. Report the numbers. Get results in a couple hours.

Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital

4 hours ago

California’s election was 2 days ago… They’ve counted 56% of the votes.

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It's official. MicroStrategy, $MSTR, is now facing its biggest unrealized loss in history, at -$10.8 billion. In other words, after 6 years of buying Bitcoin, the company is now down -17% on its position. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up +116% over this same timeframe. Since MicroStrategy sold 32 Bitcoin at $77,135 per coin, their positions has lost -$11.8 billion in value. This puts MicroStrategy's stock, $MSTR, down -77% since its record high. Bear market is an understatement.

A cash-secured put is not a yield trade — it's a conditional purchase agreement priced by implied volatility. If you wouldn't buy the stock at the strike, the premium doesn't justify the obligation. Free primer on the mechanics: valueoptionsletter.com/free

Its because its rigged

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3 days ago

The fact that California elections often can't be resolved for weeks is kind of insane and not common in other electoral systems around the world.

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$META bears think it won’t be able to generate ROI on its AI capex. Meanwhile Jensen Huang: “Nobody uses AI better than $META.” Period.

All these stocks hit new 52 WEEK LOWS at some point today Chipotle Mexican Grill $CMG Nu Holdings $NU American Water Works $AWK Conagra Brands $CAG CME Group $CME Copart $CPRT Erie Indemnity $ERIE GFL Environmental $GFL Haleon $HLN Intercontinental Exchange $ICE Intuitive Surgical $ISRG Lowe's $LOW Mastercard $MA Medtronic $MDT National Fuel Gas $NFG O'Reilly Automotive $ORLY ResMed $RMD Rollins $ROL Service Corp $SCI Sherwin-Williams $SHW Sanofi $SNY Suzano $SUZ Molson Coors $TAP Tradeweb Markets $TW Waste Connections $WCN

WARNING 🚨: Stock Market reaches most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression 🤯👀

Almost there...

Can’t believe all of the AI companies made a joint statement saying Software Co’s will be fine… jk In the past 5 days: $NOW +36% $TEAM +39% $WDAY +25% This is your daily reminder that nothing needs to change in order for things to change.

You wouldn't know it based on the way investors on this platform talk about homebuilders and the housing market in general but Berkshire Hathaway's deal for $TMHC is the THIRD announced takeout of a publicly traded homebuilder this year. Sentiment in the space has rarely been worse than it is now, but some longer term thinkers see the opportunity... $XHB $ITB $TPH $UHG

SPENCER PRATT: “Ready for the best part?” “60% of the people in Los Angeles that are ‘experiencing homelessness’ — they’re not from California.” “They’ve been brought here by NGOs that profit off of this homeless industrial complex, Medicaid...” BILL MAHER: “Wait, wait, wait...” “They’ve been brought here?” SPENCER PRATT: “They’ve been brought here.” BILL MAHER: “Who did that?” SPENCER PRATT: “Body brokers bring these people here.” BILL MAHER: “From where?” SPENCER PRATT: “All across the country.” “If you’re an addict, you can come to LA and get these rehabs and use your Medicaid, you have a social security...”

Most investors are aware of Akre's home run with American Tower. In 2002, he bought $AMT shares as low as $0.79 per share. These shares were worth close to 50x their cost within only 5 years and close to 100x within a decade. But Akre didn't start buying $AMT in 2002. He started in 1998, buying shares at a cost basis of $22. This means that $AMT plunged 98% between 98 and 02. Both the $0.79 and $22 purchases would beat the S&P over a long period of time. Investing is fascinating.

This is one of the most important macro charts for understanding why financial assets have remained strong despite persistent concerns about deficits, debt, and weak household balance sheets. Because national accounting identities must balance, when one sector (government/households/foreign trade) runs a deficit, another must run a surplus (corporates).

Kalani o Māui @MauiBoyMacro

5 days ago

@PeterBerezinBCA Which came first, the earnings bubble or the deficit bubble? 👇🏼

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Quality stocks trading near their 52-week lows: Berkshire Hathaway $BRK: -12% Mastercard $MA: -17% Sherwin-Williams $SHW: -19% McDonald’s $MCD: -21% S&P Global $SPGI: -24% Waste Connections $WCN: -24% Intuitive Surgical $ISRG: -28% Ferrari $RACE: -34% Copart $CPRT: -48%

Just listened to Marc Rowan on the A16Z podcast and thought the origin story of Apollo was one of the most interesting snippets from the conversation During the 1990s, Drexel had just collapsed under the weight of the Milken junk bond indictment. It was a bad time in the markets, with real estate prices crashing and a S&L crisis happening at the same time Marc Rowan and his future co-founders became unemployed bankers in the middle of a financial crisis but continued to work for their clients without any hopes of ever getting paid. In the midst of this, they received a call from the French government bank, Credit Lyonnais, with an offer to start an M&A boutique firm under their brand name After taking a meeting with Credit Lyonnais, Rowan and team left with $800M of French government money to invest. By the end of that year, they had accumulated $6B of the bank's money and became the profit center of the French bank Eventually, Credit Lyonnais begins to struggle and sells the profit center of the business to its largest client, Francois Pinault, a French industrialist billionaire Apollo used his funding base as a starting point and eventually diversified out to take in other investors across the US and Europe. Credit Lyonnais eventually went under and was later consolidated into what is Credit Agricole today What a crazy ride

$FFH.TO closed on sale of Poseidon stake as expected. BVPS probably going to potentially come in around $1,300 or perhaps a little higher at end of Q2. The Eurolife transaction closes in Q3. Would not be surprising to see $1,400 book value at year end. At current prices that’s about 1.2x book at quarter end and 1.1x book at year end. If you look at adjusted book for just the excess of fair value over book value in investments, could easily be over $1,550 at year end depending on how market positions perform. Not a mystery why they are buying back so much stock right now. The stock is as cheap as it’s been since it was a huge gift several years ago.

Tim @TimTravisValue Travis on: * How Value Investors Use Options To Generate Income And Buy Stocks At Lower Prices * Cash-Secured Puts Explained: How Buffett Used Options To Lower His Entry Price * Using Options To Build Margin Of Safety Into Investments * $NOW ServiceNow, Amazon, And AI: Using Options To Find Value In High-Quality Growth Stocks * Why Option Volatility Can Create Mispriced Opportunities For Value Investors * Is Selling Options Safer Than Buying Stocks Outright? * How Covered Calls And Cash-Secured Puts Generate Income In Choppy Markets * The Wheel Strategy Explained: Selling Puts And Covered Calls For Long-Term Investors * (Jake’s Veggies) Precision Railroading, Octopus Hearts, And The Hidden Cost Of Extreme Efficiency

Acquirer’s Multiple® @acquirersx

2 weeks ago

VALUE: After Hours (S08 E18): Value Investing with Options: Selling Puts to Buy Wonderful Businesses at Better Prices Full podcast here: tinyurl.com/bx7ekrwh

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Anthropic just announced: - Run rate revenue is now $47 billion - Raised $65 Billion for Series H round - Valuation is $965 billion post-money Insane.

These are historically low FCF yields.

Koyfin @KoyfinCharts

7 days ago

The current free cash flow yields of the S&P 500 (2.7%) and Nasdaq 100 (2.2%) and Russell 2000 (1.9%). $IWM $SPY $QQQ

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“Buy on the sound of cannons, sell on the sound of trumpets” ​ ​ ---widely attributed to 19th-century London financier Nathan Mayer Rothschild.

Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons

2 weeks ago

"When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy." — Warren Buffett

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