The Strat @StratsLabs

$AMZN reported Q2 earnings: • Revenue: $200.6B, beating expectations of $196.47B 🟢 • EPS: $5.75, beating expectations of $1.82 🟢 • AWS revenue: $42.2B Q3 guidance: • Revenue: $197B-$202B, below expectations of $204.07B 🔴 • Operating income: $22.5B-$26.5B vs expectations of $24.79B

The Strat @StratsLabs

3 hours ago

Sold $AMZN $220 put expiring tomorrow as an earnings play. Will take assignment in an adverse scenario. Not financial advice.

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$NBIS has already done a lot of the heavy lifting. The stock is down more than 45% from last month's highs. Expectations have reset materially heading into earnings, which changes the risk-reward profile. Here's what I'm watching: • $170 carries the largest Gamma Exposure into the July 31 expiration, making it an important near-term reference level. • Looking beyond weekly positioning, cumulative dealer exposure out through December LEAPS identifies $140 as a key support/flip zone. • The technical picture tells a similar story. The 50-week moving average sits around $143–145, reinforcing that area as a high-conviction support level. Could earnings disappoint? Certainly, but less probable. But based on the options positioning, longer-dated exposure, and technical structure, I think the probability of a sustained break below $140 this week is relatively low. That's why I like harvesting elevated implied volatility into earnings rather than paying for it. If the stock holds, time decay and post-earnings volatility compression should do much of the work. If I'm assigned near $140, I'm comfortable owning the shares and transitioning into a Wheel strategy by systematically selling covered calls. Sometimes the best earnings trade isn't predicting the move. It's getting paid to take risk at a price you're already willing to own. How are you positioned for the $NBIS earnings release?

Kushal Patel @kp3690kp

2 days ago

@StratsLabs Why don’t you think it could get to that level

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Sold $AMZN $220 put expiring tomorrow as an earnings play. Will take assignment in an adverse scenario. Not financial advice.

@KobeissiLetter The fund lacked "situational awareness" amid the current sell-off across $KOSPI and Middle East risks. It didn't stand up to its name. Irony!

I’ve been pondering the cause of weakness across the AI complex. Everyone’s blaming headlines, valuations, or profit-taking. I think the bigger story is the cost of capital. A short write-up ✍️ Over the past few weeks, real interest rates have moved materially higher: Treasury yields have risen while long-term inflation expectations have remained relatively stable. That may not sound significant, but for long-duration growth assets, it’s one of the most important variables in the market. At the same time, policymakers have signaled a more restrictive stance toward financial conditions. If the Fed continues reducing its balance sheet while Treasury issuance remains elevated, private markets will need to absorb more duration at higher yields. That raises financing costs across the economy. Now consider where the AI trade stands today. Hyperscalers are investing hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure; data centers, networking, and power capacity. Those investments increasingly rely on debt financing rather than excess free cash flow. Higher real rates increase their cost of capital. Higher funding costs reduce the present value of future cash flows. That’s a difficult combination for a sector whose valuation depends heavily on earnings expected years into the future. The market isn’t questioning AI. It’s questioning the price of building it. That also helps explain why semiconductor stocks have struggled despite healthy backlogs and resilient demand. Markets tend to discount changes in capital allocation long before analysts revise earnings estimates. The challenge from here is that there isn’t an obvious catalyst. Hyperscalers are unlikely to materially reduce AI investment, because the strategic stakes are simply too high. But if funding costs continue to rise, investors may demand greater discipline on returns rather than rewarding capital expenditure alone. This week could provide additional clarity as markets continue to assess the path of monetary policy and financial conditions. For now, I think the AI trade is becoming less about technological innovation, and more about who can finance that innovation most efficiently. In this environment, the cost of capital may matter just as much as the pace of AI adoption. What are your thoughts? 🤔

Everyone is watching the Fed. They should be watching Japan. 🇯🇵 A shift in Japanese policy can have a bigger impact on global liquidity than most investors appreciate. Some macro inflection points are only obvious in hindsight. This may be one of them.

@leadlagreport Teacher is within

BoJ seems to have intervened in the Yen $JPY. $USD dropped 2.5% ahead of the BoJ rate decision tomorrow. If they hike rates, USD drops further, prompting temporary bullish relief in US equities. $SPY

Trump won’t let bond market collapse! He may end the Iran war soon if there’s first sign of crack. A short write up ✍️: A U.S. 10-year yield above 5% is where bond-market strain stops being “volatility” and starts becoming systemic risk. With today’s fiscal math and deficit path, there’s little runway for elevated yields before policy is forced to pivot. Right now, the posture looks reactive, not strategic. Markets move on credible fiscal plans and coherent monetary coordination. Political posturing may only buy time for a while. When foreign policy headlines are driving Treasury volatility, it’s a sign priorities have slipped and discipline is fading. Economic stability depends on Treasuries anchoring expectations. That requires getting the fiscal house in order first, and putting external agendas (e.g. Iran war) on hold until the domestic foundation is secure. Japan may crack first if the war continues further. And that can cascade into a global bond crisis, which no developed country is prepared for. What are your thoughts? 👇

Oil is down today, but 3-2-1 crack spreads are up 3.12%. That divergence is worth watching. When crude falls and refining margins widen, it signals that product demand remains strong even as input costs decline. Refiners are capturing more value per barrel processed. This dynamic often precedes a floor in crude prices. Physical buying tends to return once the crack spread advantage becomes clear to the market. Not a prediction, but a setup that historically tilts the probability distribution in favor of stabilization rather than continued downside.

The Strat @StratsLabs

a week ago

The most important bullish signal in oil isn't the price. It's the forward curve. Here’s a quick explanation on how to trade oil like institutions. 👇 While most investors watch front-month Brent, professional energy desks focus just as much on time spreads. Right now, the

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Days like today separate process from emotion. The Iran headlines erased the opening rally and pushed my 0DTE put credit spreads within striking distance of maximum loss. It would've been easy to panic. Instead, I asked one question: Has the probability distribution materially changed? Despite the selloff, I believed a sustained break below 7400 was unlikely given the event risk sitting just ahead with FOMC and GDP. Rather than abandoning the trade, I adjusted the portfolio by adding an XSP Iron Fly and allowed time decay to work. SPX closed at 7413.8. Maximum profit on put credit spreads. And a few more bucks on IronFly. Bagged in total $579 💵 for the day. July P/L is now $2310. 🔥📈 Hoping to close north of $3,000 by Friday. This small account got whacked into over -$1000 unrealized losses; that's when I deployed the IronFly on $XSP. Coz I believed the index should settle above the 7400-7410 zone, as per the initial plan. Trading isn't about predicting every headline and running after price. It's about remaining disciplined when volatility temporarily disconnects price from probability. The faster you learn this, the better it will your equity growth curve will be.

The Strat @StratsLabs

3 days ago

Daily recap 7/27: A very volatile day in the equity markets. Trillions of dollars were wiped off after Iran claimed "no peace talks." $SPX and $NDX gapped up over 1% on the cessation of strikes from both sides over the weekend. It didn't take long to fill the gap, erase the

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@JayD428914 $NBIS has the most asymmetric upside. 🤝

Daily recap 7/27: A very volatile day in the equity markets. Trillions of dollars were wiped off after Iran claimed "no peace talks." $SPX and $NDX gapped up over 1% on the cessation of strikes from both sides over the weekend. It didn't take long to fill the gap, erase the gains, and sell off to 7385. I sold OTM put credit spreads about 40 minutes after the open when the market was still calm. Then the news hit. It killed the momentum and dragged my positions toward max loss by the afternoon. I didn't panic. I reassessed the odds of $SPX closing above 7400. A huge negative GEX exposure sits around that level. In a negative gamma environment, moves can extend further. But I doubted we would see that kind of drop ahead of key U.S. events: - FOMC on Wednesday - U.S. GDP on Friday If today were Friday, I could have anticipated a move toward 7300. But ahead of big events, the index rarely swings that far. Today's price action didn't change my view. I held my positions through the unrealized losses. I also opened an Iron Fly in $XSP to avoid conflicting with my existing put verticals around the 7400–7410 zone. The payoff tent was wide enough to expire profitably. $SPX closed at 7413.8. Not my favorite day trading 0DTEs, but I still finished green: +$579. 💵 Tomorrow, I plan to weigh the macro environment more carefully and deploy more non-directional bets. How did you trade today? Put your thoughts below. 👇 Not financial advice.

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The Strat @StratsLabs

6 days ago

Daily recap 7/24: P/L: -$15 (trade log attached) Started the day with some gains on at-the-money put credit spreads, but later gave them back as $SPX turned south to retest the lows around the 7400s. Not much alpha to squeeze today. I’ll be back next week with fresh

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Day recap: 7/28 MTD profit: $2,695 ✅ As expected, today was another dull price-action day ahead of a key market-moving event tomorrow: the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. I started selling out-of-the-money put credit spreads as soon as the index tested the low 7,380s again, which offered decent credit with a high probability of profit. I also sold a slightly in-the-money PCS to collect more credit upfront for a potential move higher, which came in the afternoon. Overall, all three put credit spreads were closed for a $385 profit 💵 A decent income day trading 0DTE vertical spreads. Let’s see if we can push the account to $3,000+ in profit by Friday. How have you been doing lately? Any interesting tickers/charts you want us to discuss? Comment below. 👇

The Strat @StratsLabs

3 days ago

Daily recap 7/27: A very volatile day in the equity markets. Trillions of dollars were wiped off after Iran claimed "no peace talks." $SPX and $NDX gapped up over 1% on the cessation of strikes from both sides over the weekend. It didn't take long to fill the gap, erase the

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@spotgamma It’s getting brutal with all the sell rip price action for a month. Staying cash is best.

Day recap: 7/29 This small account had a brutal day after I tried to catch the falling knife post‑FOMC. Initially, it had solid gains of about $500 going into the announcement. About 20 minutes into the post‑FOMC pop, I sold OTM put credit spreads near 7410 support, expecting it to hold. Then the US30Y pushed higher and started shaking equities, sparking a panic sell‑off across $SPX and $NDX. Premiums looked tempting into the final hour. And, going against my rules of not trading the event, I added more put credit spreads in tranches, betting on a late‑hour vol crush. Same lesson, again: catching a falling knife wrecks the equity curve. Result: -$2,145 on the day. MTD now sits at +$550. Resetting tomorrow. I’m aiming to recover most of this by Friday and close the account higher.

The Strat @StratsLabs

2 days ago

Day recap: 7/28 MTD profit: $2,695 ✅ As expected, today was another dull price-action day ahead of a key market-moving event tomorrow: the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. I started selling out-of-the-money put credit spreads as soon as the index tested the low

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US 30Y just hit its highest level since the GFC. Markets didn’t take it well. Equities sold off hard. $SPY $QQQ

@FinanceLancelot It shouldn’t be that bad compared to poor countries though. Greed could be another likely factor.

@spectatorindex This should technically mark the bottom for this month.

The Strat @StratsLabs

3 days ago

I think bottom is near for $KOSPI 200DMA at ~5600

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