JN.1 Pirola with "FLiRT" (F456L and R346T) appears to be growing fairly quickly in the UK, where it has been found the most frequently. These are new mutations to Pirola, but have evolved in prior XBBs. +75%/wk looks like a reasonable early estimate to me.
If this estimate ends up close, it's also fairly surprising. We've seen 456L and 346T before. I would have guessed this combo would be below 40%, since neither mutation alone were particularly fast on JN.1. The combination appears to be greater than the sum.
@JPWeiland New wave on the way or is it too early to predict? Will it repeat the same phenomenon as XBB.1.5?
@JPWeiland Will the XBB updated version of the vaccine have any efficacy against this new mutation?
@JPWeiland Thank you for this critical information and analysis!! 🙏🏻🙏🏻
@JPWeiland Germany appears to be slightly ahead in the FLiRT, but we do not know it yet (with 38 sequencing points all over Germany in the whole week before 3/7). But the model-fits for infections etc. indicate a new variant. ⇒ x.com/Martin46er1/st….
@JPWeiland Germany appears to be slightly ahead in the FLiRT, but we do not know it yet (with 38 sequencing points all over Germany in the whole week before 3/7). But the model-fits for infections etc. indicate a new variant. ⇒ x.com/Martin46er1/st…. https://t.co/20QMl9nbMe