Stakeholder Focused Investing @GrowSustain
Long term investment approach developed through 20 yrs in the investment business, focused on investing in companies that maximize value for all stakeholders. Bend, OR Joined July 2019-
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$LSF Search data suggests accelerating sales growth in Q1 and likely an upside surprise to consensus. More room to run.
If you're looking for bombed-out, left-for-dead ideas. Look no further than the United Kingdom. UK equities are trading at their lowest valuation since 2006. Fund managers are more underweight UK equities than any other asset class. 🇬🇧 = 🤮
$LSF up >100% today on earnings surprise - this is just getting started. Still less than 0.5 x sales and that doesn’t back out $7M of cash
$LSF up >100% today on earnings surprise - this is just getting started. Still less than 0.5 x sales and that doesn’t back out $7M of cash
Anyone have a good sum of the parts valuation on $FRMO?
Massive news day for Chinese ADRs today * $BABA CEO Joe Tsai bought $150M worth of shares in his personal account. * Jack Ma bought $50M, bringing total insider buys to at least $200M. * China rumored to be scrapping its widely-panned videogame regulations. * China…
Things you see at turning points…
Things you see at turning points…
10 visuals every investor should memorize: 1. Investing versus spending
Incredible. For only the 4th time since 1950, the McClellan Summation Index for the S&P 500 is set to cross +1500. The only precedents are the ends of the bear markets in 1970, 1974, and early 2010s.
$LSF @ShawnRyanShow deal is driving real results. Google search trends are up 36% y/y currently. Looking at historical correlations of rev growth the guidance for Q4 looks too conservative. Implies $40MM sales run rate vs $8MM market cap. 4x potential even with some dilution
Great climate manifesto by Matt Ward @ 4ward.vc : mattward.substack.com/p/a-climate-ma…
Fascinating how poorly some of these cannibals performed while buying back tons of stock. $EBAY at 5.7x EV/EBIT here? $RH - is that CEO an outsider? Major buybacks at the 2017 lows, and then again here in 2023 - looks like a buy.
Fascinating how poorly some of these cannibals performed while buying back tons of stock. $EBAY at 5.7x EV/EBIT here? $RH - is that CEO an outsider? Major buybacks at the 2017 lows, and then again here in 2023 - looks like a buy.
Bitcoin just broke $37,000. If it keeps going up it might hit $38,000. See chart below:
Private credit - a big blowup when the next recession hits. This podcast gave me a chuckle - my two favorite quotes from it - referring to good ol' lending as "uncorrelated alpha" and "insurance companies are desperate to joint the party". theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/lucra…
Buy Stonks! Buy ‘em all! #Bullish
There have been two times in the past 40 years when the S&P 500 rose for 7 straight days following a 100-day low. The first was on March 20, 2003. It marked the end of that bear market. The other was today.
This is the 24th time the Russell 2000 closed at a 52-week low, then surged to its best 4-day rally in at least 3 months. A year later, the small-cap index was higher 100% of the time with a median return of +25.6%.
Chinas economy must be near a bottom “An unusual new budgeting trend is emerging in China’s largest cities; two strangers, unable to afford to rent individually, split the cost of a room and share one bed.” scmp.com/news/people-cu…
$CSU.TO has returned an insane 155x in just 17 years as a public company. That is *excluding* dividends and two spin-offs. We have just uncovered possibly the only existing audio interview with Mark Leonard, the company's iconic founder, President and Chairman. This 1h & 40min…
Wow!
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@RWAwatchlist_ You’re missing $KLIMA in the sector of climate change
$CNS.MI Civitanavi announced today that Honeywell $HON will acquire CNS for €6.30/sh in cash vs. the €3.72/sh price at the time of my post ~7 months ago. Equates to 15.4x EV/ttm EBIT which I personally think is still way too cheap.
$CNS.MI Civitanavi is an Italian microcap ($125M USD mkt cap) technology provider to the A&D industry with strong growth (+63% 10 yr sales CAGR), mid-20s ROEs, high inside ownership, net-cash B/S and attractive valuation (10x EV/ttm EBIT, 13x ttm P/E ex-cash) - multibagger pot'l
Wow. Here is one that was left for dead. $LSF And now + cash flow moving fwd. Basically priced at cash at $1. #cigarettebutt
While we’re reviewing our 2023 performance, it’s always good to check in with the outperformers of the past. Not only did these individuals outperform, most of them did so for an extended period. And with various approaches 😎 (Source: Excess Returns, Vanhaverbeke)
Cleaning out my office and ran across my Monster Beverage $MNST (then Hansen Natural Corp. $HANS) 1-page pitch I used while interviewing in BSchool (Oct, 2008). If only all my picks worked so well! 🤣
There have been two times in the past 40 years when the S&P 500 rose for 7 straight days following a 100-day low. The first was on March 20, 2003. It marked the end of that bear market. The other was today.
Wisdom from one of the greatest investors, Peter Lynch. Markets feel so bad bc we’re in a 2 year bear market. That’s a buying opportunity!
Is there any way to own Hyundai stock in Interactive Broker? I'm not even seeing an ADR? 5x earnings and they own Boston Dynamics the robot company. $28 billion market cap.
Japanese cash-net CEL Corp ($5078.T) reported FY2Q24 results last night and raised their FY2/24 guidance by +9% on sales & +24% on EPS. Cash continues to build and the stock remains very cheap with no catalyst: 5,303 cash/sh vs. 2,913 stock price, 0.5x P/TBV & <12x P/E
Announcing the ImpactAssets 50 2023! The 12th edition of the #IA50 showcases 163 experienced and emerging #impinv fund managers representing $122B in AUM committed to generating positive impact. Explore this year’s list: buff.ly/3YKvtI2
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$NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, a stable 10 PE growing 10% per year. Sounds interesting. 1.5x tangible book, would be even better at 1x tangible book. But with positive earnings it can get there with no change in price.
This comes up quite a bit in conversations
@GrowSustain Nominal dollars vs real ( as a %) would be a useful comparison. Money supply is many times 2008
Ratio of US to global stocks ($SPY vs. $ACWI) just dipped below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Q1 2021 on weaker $USD. Probably nothing.....
There’s a big difference between a heated toilet seat, and a toilet seat that’s warm. #WeTweet
@long_equity Now the golden question, whats the MC/FCF Multiple or EV/FCF Multiple of your portfolio?
The good news is that at this rate we will hit 0 by Thanksgiving
Betsy crushed her opponents on the debate stage tonight. Tina wobbled and weaved. Christine was uncertain and shallow. Only Betsy acted like a governor tonight. A people’s governor. #orpol
As of today, we estimate ~91% of the S&P 500 are in their blackout window with ~93% by the end of the week. We estimate this blackout window will end ~10/28: GS By then one barrel of S&P500 will be -$40
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