Brian Klimke, CFA @btklimke
Brian Klimke is Chief Market Strategist at Cetera Investment Management (CIM) (@CeteraIM). CIM is owned by @CeteraFinancial California Joined July 2012-
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Volatility is on the rise. There are many potential catalysts for this. While geopolitical risks can get the headlines, bond yields have risen and markets have largely ignored it.
Volatility is on the rise. There are many potential catalysts for this. While geopolitical risks can get the headlines, bond yields have risen and markets have largely ignored it.
America had a lost decade in the 2000s, Japan had a lost generation. In both cases, if you were diversified across countries and asset classes, it wasn't lost.
America had a lost decade in the 2000s, Japan had a lost generation. In both cases, if you were diversified across countries and asset classes, it wasn't lost.
NVIDIA is over 4% of S&P 500 & 6.5% of Russell 1000 Growth Indexes. A 10% move would cause around a 0.40% & 0.65% move in the indexes, respectively. Not to mention other AI stocks may move along. Investors cannot invest directly in indexes
This theme will continue with more expensive Chinese labor, the expansion of AI and automation, higher European energy costs and America looking to diversify trading partners. Also, look for more onshoring back to the US. Emerging Markets-ex China was up over 18% last year.
This theme will continue with more expensive Chinese labor, the expansion of AI and automation, higher European energy costs and America looking to diversify trading partners. Also, look for more onshoring back to the US. Emerging Markets-ex China was up over 18% last year.
This is an important point. Many think we are going back to 2019 price levels, but that is not what lower inflation means. Fed is only trying to control future increases in prices, so expectations for "going back what things used to cost" won't be met.
This is an important point. Many think we are going back to 2019 price levels, but that is not what lower inflation means. Fed is only trying to control future increases in prices, so expectations for "going back what things used to cost" won't be met.
Let's see if Powell tones down this optimism in the press conference. I suspect he will.
Let's see if Powell tones down this optimism in the press conference. I suspect he will.
"One flag, one land, one heart, one hand, one nation forevermore!" — Oliver Wendell Holmes Happy Fourth of July from all of us at Cetera!
Being a huge baseball fan, it was fun presenting in a baseball stadium. Pulse Financial Services has a great team and great clients.
Being a huge baseball fan, it was fun presenting in a baseball stadium. Pulse Financial Services has a great team and great clients.
The @ceteraIM Chartbook is a compilation of dashboards, indicators, and timely charts. What is the data saying about the #economy and #markets? Click in the link for our Q3 Chartbook to find out: pages.cetera.com/rs/211-FLX-077…
In the @ceteraIM Mid-Year 2023 Outlook, they discuss the fledgling bull market as the U.S. approaches a potential recession. Market breadth is a concern, but there are silver linings in the economy starting to emerge. Click here to read more: pages.cetera.com/rs/211-FLX-077…
The June FOMC meeting has concluded and the #Fed held rates steady at the target range of 5.0-5.25%. The pause could be temporary based on the updated Dot Plot. The year-end median projection increased to 5.6%, which implies another 50 bps of rate hikes.
Market volatility is on a downtrend trend since banking issues caused a volatility spike in March. The #VIX closed at 13.96 yesterday, which is the lowest level since February 2020. For context, the average since 2015 is 18.8.
Please review the latest commentary from @ceteraIM, which discusses the passage of the debt ceiling bill and what lies ahead for investors as they climb a wall of worry. Click here to read more: bit.ly/3PanliX
Thank you @ankika_b and @Reuters for including my perspective in your article and as always great chatting with you. The Fed is making its mark on the economy with GDP growth and inflation slowing. We do anticipate a recession, but think it will be mild. h.ptsm.us/2qDgzN
Cracks caused by the Fed’s rate hikes are becoming more evident and investors are focusing more on the economic landing. Will it be a hard landing? @ceteraIM discuss the cracks and the landing scenarios in its Q2 2023 Outlook. bit.ly/3KdDkcM
You don’t need to search for data in different places! The @ceteraIM Chartbook is a compilation of dashboards, indicators, and timely charts on the economy and markets. Click here for our Q2 Chartbook: bit.ly/3lqba4O
Please review the latest commentary from @ceteraIM which explains the causes and actions being taken to solve the recent banking problems. The good news is that there could be a silver lining in all this. Click here to read more: bit.ly/3Lv82zc
Please review the latest commentary from @ceteraIM which discusses the reasons for the recent bank closures in California. Unlike 2008, these were liquidity events, not solvency events. Click here to read more: bit.ly/4075NGB
Thank you @JohannCherian and @Reuters for including my perspective in your article. The tech sector's forecasted earnings tends to be further out in time, making it more sensitive to interest rates. This may be a headwind for tech until the Fed pivots. h.ptsm.us/ivGJX
Early peak into the Jan economy: NY Empire State Mfg plummeted (5th lowest reading ever). However, it lines up with our outlook. Weakness in the 1st half of 2023, followed by a stronger 2nd half. It did show signs of slowing inflation, giving the Fed more reason to pause sooner.
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151K Followers 214 Following Unpaid Verified. CEO @CMLviz. Contrib @Reuters @Factset @Refinitiv. Stanford Trained Mathematician. Former Option Market Maker; Hedge Fund Manager. AI/ML.Layoff announcements fell 28% in April to a 4-month low of 64.8K. Furthermore, April layoffs were 3.3% lower than a year ago. The #Tech sector has the most layoff announcements YTD, but this year’s figure is 58% lower than the same period last year.
Patience is an investing superpower. The S&P 500’s -4.1% total return in April was the 26th negative month since 2018. Despite frequent bouts of volatility, the S&P 500 delivered a total return of 110% since the start of 2018.
@GeneGoldman @FrankCNBC @CNBCWEX @CNBC Yes, small caps are attractive ☺️
Thank you @FrankCNBC, @CNBCWEX, and @CNBC for the opportunity this morning to discuss why markets could fall into a correction. Most importantly, any correction should be short-lived on solid earnings growth and $24T of cash on the sidelines. #Fed
CIO @GeneGoldman joined @FrankCNBC on @CNBC to discuss the #Fed meeting later today, anticipated market weakness around the meeting and why he believes small-cap stocks look attractive. Watch here: cnbc.com/video/2024/05/…
The @ApartmentList National Rent index, which measures the price of new leases, fell on an annual basis for the 11th straight month. Meanwhile, CPI shelter inflation is up 5.7% Y/Y. There is a lag, but falling rents will slow CPI shelter inflation.
Labor market strength continued in April. Private payrolls increased by 192K per ADP, exceeding expectations of 175K. March payroll figures were revised higher by 24K. Service industries drove 76% of the job gains in April.
Sell in May and Go Away? Not a good strategy in most years. The average May to October S&P 500 total return is 3.2% since 1990. While not as strong as the avg of 8.2% for November to April, the S&P 500 was up from May to October in 11 of last 12 years.
CIO @GeneGoldman joined @FrankCNBC on @CNBC to discuss the #Fed meeting later today, anticipated market weakness around the meeting and why he believes small-cap stocks look attractive. Watch here: cnbc.com/video/2024/05/…
We are proud to announce the launch of our Active ETF Research Select List, featuring focused recommendations across an array of asset categories that can support robust portfolio construction. Contact us for more information!
Since overall assets invested in ETFs have grown to more than $8.9 trillion, @ceteraIM’s new Active ETF Research Select List offers our affiliated professionals guidance around this rapidly growing segment of managed investments. Learn more: cetera.com/press-room/cet…
Job openings declined to a 3-year low of 8.5 million, lowering the ratio of openings to unemployed job seekers to 1.3. Additionally, quits fell to the lowest level since January 2021. Each of these factors is signaling moderating wage pressures. #JOLTS
The S&P 500 is 8.8% above its 200-day moving average (MA), down from 13% above a month ago. 10% or above is generally viewed as extended. At the sector level, Communication Services (13.7%) and Industrials (+10.9%) are the furthest above their 200-day MA.
Markets are pricing in fewer rate cuts. The 2-year treasury yield, which is a proxy for where interest rates are expected to be in the next year, climbed above 5% for the first time since November. The #Fed will shed more light on rates tomorrow.
Personal consumption expenditures (#PCE) increased by 0.8% last month, surpassing expectations of +0.5%. Consumer spending was robust for both goods (+1.3%) and services (+0.6%), with a solid year-over-year growth rate of 5.8%.
The Fed’s preferred inflationary gauge is the core #PCE price index. It slowed on an annual basis to a 3-year low of 2.82% in March. However, core PCE has risen at an annualized pace of 3.0% over the last 6-months and a 4.4% pace over the prior 3 months.
Housing sales activity is at recessionary levels because of low inventory, but the components of housing that flow into GDP (construction) are in a solid recovery. Residential fixed investment growth jumped to a 13-quarter high of 13.9% annualized in Q1.
We are near the halfway point of Q1 earnings season. S&P 500 earnings growth is 3.3%, with 80% of firms beating expectations. Health Care is the laggard with -28% earnings growth, though @FactSet projects double digit earnings growth the next 4 quarters.
Consumer spending on energy peaked at 9.6% of total expenditures in 1980. It’s less than half that level today (4.1%). Improved energy efficiencies and increased domestic production have prevented energy costs from overwhelming consumer budgets.
US real #GDP growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter from 3.4% in Q4 ‘23, widely missing expectations of +2.7% growth. While consumer spending rose at a healthy pace, net exports and inventories subtracted 1.2% from growth.
Investor sentiment is largely a reaction to stock prices. The AAII stock sentiment indicator has been bullish for 24 straight weeks, but the latest reading of +4.3 is the lowest since last year’s correction. Sentiment is falling as equity prices decline.
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