David Buik @truemagic68
Seasoned commentator on global financial issues. Committed to City of London - All views are mine. London Joined November 2011-
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Narrative killer
Classic 2am Friday night on the dance floor
Classic 2am Friday night on the dance floor
U.S. non-farm payroll growth slows to just 175,000 in April 2024 est: 243,000 - Year-on-year the annual rate of increase in average hourly earnings dipped from 4.1% to 3.9%.The unemployment rate meanwhile ticked up by one tenth of a percentage point to 3.9%, as expected.
GLOBAL DRUG COMPANIES YTD - ASTRA ZENECA +11.65%, GSK +17.01%, SANOFI AVENTIS +0.45%, ROCHE -13.72%, NOVARTIS -0.74%, PFIZER -6.46%, MERCK +12.60%, JOHNSON & JOHNSON -6.69%, NOVO NORDISK +22.02%, BIONTECH -17.47%, ELI LILLY +24.11%, ABBVIE +2.48%, TAKEDA -2.37%
US/EUROPEAN BANKS YTD – JP MORGAN CHASE +10.71%, WELLS FARGO +21.51%, CITIBANK +15.99%, BANK OF AMERICA +9.88%, GOLDMAN SACHS +12.85%, MORGAN STANLEY -0.28%, UBS -1.44%, DEUTSCHE +22.26%, PARIBAS +6.76%, SOCIETE GENERALE -0.67%, SANTANDER +15.34%
UK BANKS YTD – NATWEST +38.56%, HSBC +12.10%, BARCLAYS +29.28%, LLOYDS +8.72%, STANDARD CHARTERED +14.42%, METRO BANK -13.75%
US TECH YTD - NASDAQ +9.42%, AMAZON +24.21%, APPLE -1.23%, ALPHABET +21.10%, META +30.54%, NETFLIX +23.66%, MICROSOFT +9.65%, INTEL -35.36%, eBAY +13.18%, TESLA -27.08%, UBER +18.59%, CISCO SYSTEMS -6.71%, LAM RESEARCH +21.25%, NVIDIA +84.32%, SMCI +174.20%, ARM +47.58%
US RETAIL YTD – WALMART +12.66%, TARGET +10.44%, KROGER +18.39%, ABERCROMBIE & FITCH +41.56%, NORDSTROM +9.90%, NIKE -13.51%, FOOT LOCKER -29.35%, URBAN OUTFITTERS +11.92%, MACY’S -2.00%, DOLLAR GENERAL -2.09%
GERMAN INDUSTRIALS YTD – SIEMENS +5.80%, THYSSENKRUPP -23.60%, BMW +0.71%, MERCEDES +13.03%, VW +2.32% BASF Unch
UK/IRISH AIRLINES YTD - IAG +14.52%, easyJet +8.14%, RYANAIR +8.49%, Wizz Air +1.08%
UK RETAIL YTD - NEXT +13.01%, M&S -6.74%, HALFORDS -22.19%, TESCO +1.81%, SAINSBURY -10.71%, OCADO -51.60%, BOOHOO -7.81%, AB FOODS +12.26%, THG -15.35%, CURRYS +26.56%, WH SMITH -17.39%, AO WORLD +15.70%, FRASERS -7.99%, BURBERRY -15.25%, JD SPORTS -27.96%, ASOS -8.95%
UK HOUSE BUILDERS YTD – PERSIMMON -1.85%, TAYLOR WIMPEY -4.47%, BARRATT DEVELOPMENT -15.62%, VISTRY GROUP +39.52%, REDROW +10.45%, BERKELEY GROUP +6.02%
DEFENCE SECTOR YTD - BAE SYSTEMS +21.64%, ROLLS ROYCE +39.18%, QINETIQ +13.99%, RAYTHEON +18.99%, LOCKHEED MARTIN +1.27%, THALES +20.68%, LEONARDO +43.11%, NORTHROP GRUMMAN -0.21%, GENERAL DYNAMICS +11.42%, BOEING -28.59%
ENERGY & MINING YTD - BP +8.37%, SHELL +11.18%, EXXON MOBIL +13.33%, CHEVRON +7.20%, TOTAL +6.84%, REPSOL +6.01%, ENI -5.48%, ARAMCO -9.38%, CENTRICA -9.02%, GLENCORE -3.47%, RIO TINTO -7.20%, ANGLO AMERICAN +38.77%, BHP -16.09%
BRENT CRUDE $82.96, GOLD $2310.10, UK 2-YEAR GILT YIELD 4.36%, 7-YEAR GILT YIELD 4.08%, 10-YEAR GILT YIELD 4.22%, 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELD 4.50%, CABLE $1.2544 at 5.40am
Global indices YTD – FTSE +6.37%, DAX +7.30%, CAC40 +5.67%, DJIA +2.55%, S&P500 +8.12%, NASDAQ +9.42%, NIKKEI +14.86%, HANG SENG +10.05%, SHANGHAI +4.81%, FTSE 250 +3.35%
Global indices last week – FTSE +0.90%, DAX +0.41%, CAC40 -1.42%, DJIA +1.03%, S&P500 +0.27%, NASDAQ +0.93%, NIKKEI +0.45%, HANG SENG +6.57%, SHANGHAI +2.49%, FTSE 250 +1.72%
Asia closing levels - 3/5/24 - NIKKEI - 38,236.07 −37.98 (-0.099%), HANG SENG - 18,475.92 +268.79 (+1.48%), SHANGHAI – 3,104.82 −8.22 (-0.26%)
European/US closing levels - 3/5/24 - FTSE 100 - 8,213.49 +41.34 (+0.51%), DAX - 17,993.69 +97.19 (+0.54%), CAC - 7,957.57 +42.92 (+0.54%), DJIA - 38,675.68 +450.02 (+1.18%), S&P500 - 5,127.79 +63.59 (+1.26%), NASDAQ - 16,156.33 +315.37 (+1.99%)
In the 63 years I have been interested in politics, I can never remember the visual media salivating so intensely at the prospect of a massive Labour majority at the GE. The Tories probably deserve it, but balance and impartiality? I think not!
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35 Followers 163 FollowingClassic 2am Friday night on the dance floor
Samson the hire bull has arrived today. A very popular move with these ladies.
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Plenty of reasons you might not want public sector productivity to rise (higher class sizes etc.) but to have it lower than in 1997 given the technology advances in delivering services that has taken place is a truly awful track record.
Thank you to Andrew Greener for sending this photo of the Windsor Cafe in Bell Lane Spitalfields (c. 1970) that has never been published before.
You can debate sluggish private consumption estimate - we have +1.3% for 2024 vs +0.7 by OECD. The latest BoE credit data (below) on hhld saving suggests caution that could weigh on the propensity to spend real income growth. However GfK outlook for personal fins at ~3Y high
Three takeaways for me from last night’s Federal Reserve statement federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre… and press conference. Firstly this was a holding pattern statement ahead of the June meeting - at which point there will be a new Summary of Economic Projections. Any temptation to remove…
Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party is set to unveil a weakened package of workers’ rights in the coming weeks in its latest softening of radical policies ahead of the upcoming general election, the Financial Times has learnt ft.com/content/fe1608…
This is a nice example in the wild of why our tax system will never be simplified. The opposition party has taken a loosely stated government aspiration to scrap employee NI (the UK's 2nd income tax on workers), and converted it into a promise to get rid of the state pension
Rishi Sunak’s unfunded £46 billion pledge is a threat to pensioners like Betty. It’s time for him to come clean about who is really going to pay for it.
We’re delighted to welcome Vanessa Feltz to LBC! The hugely popular journalist and presenter will front her own Saturday afternoon show, from 3pm to 6pm, offering opinion, analysis and deep dives into what matters to the British public. Our refreshed weekend schedule in full ⬇️
'I can't believe this is really happening... I've known about LBC since I was in the cradle.' Vanessa Feltz says she's been a 'secret listener' of LBC for years and is delighted to be presenting a new show as part of our refreshed weekend lineup.
@truemagic68 If we *pretend momentarily* that FTSE 100 is a "measure of things" - then it's in a "strange place" currently? - a World packed with possibilities and opportunities attenuated by unprecedented promotion of division & envy...not surprising index keeps collapsing by day end... JW.
Ken calling time on MMT. Bingo card for 2024 is filling up fast.
Some economists still argue that countries can grow their way out of high debt, citing the United States’ postwar boom as an example. But recent research refutes this notion, writes @Harvard's @krogoff. bit.ly/4dgfMRc
Morning Bid: Fed day focus is on what Jay says reut.rs/3JEXdIG
Morning Bid: Fed day focus is on what Jay says reut.rs/3JEXdIG
@truemagic68 @asentance "At the end of the 70s . ." Towering intellects were certainly in parliament. But 'the man in the street' didn't know it.
@truemagic68 @campbellclaret Labour got 36.9% in 1979 and fairly certain the country isn't the mess it was then with industry decimated by strikes and rubbish piled high in streets and 3 day weeks. With spending where it is I wonder exactly what Campbell suggest is the solution?
A typical coal-fired power station in China. There are loads of them. ULEZ makes not a jot of difference to global emissions. Its a racket for Sadiq Khan to make money..
I’m gutted to lost the championship this season but have had a great time fighting against Harry Cobden who has been a gentleman to battle with, congratulations to Harry and I’ll be back next season! @CobdenHarry
HE'S DONE IT! 🏆 Congratulations to Harry Cobden, 2023/24 champion jockey 👏
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