Electoral Calculus @ElectCalculus
Electoral Calculus (https://t.co/7xSW0u57VZ) is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data. electoralcalculus.co.uk United Kingdom Joined September 2016-
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New infographic shows how voters have moved around since 2019. Most Conservative voters have switched allegiance, but in many different directions. Full story at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_tr…
Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Labour's lead over the #Conservatives slightly up at 19pc, with the Conservatives set to win fewer than 100 seats. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our new monthly poll-of-polls has #Labour's lead over the #Conservatives down slightly to 18pc, which still leads to a landslide. #LibDem seats projected up, following our recent MRP poll. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our latest poll-of-polls has #Labour about 20pc ahead of the #Conservatives, which would give them a massive majority. Labour also ahead of the #SNP in Scotland, and Reform just ahead of the Lib Dems. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our year-end poll-of-polls shows #Labour's lead down 3pc to 17pc. But that is still enough for a big Labour majority. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our new monthly poll-of-polls shows #Labour's lead over the #Conservatives up slightly to 20pc, giving them a very large majority. In Scotland, Labour is now predicted to win 12 seats more than #SNP. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our new monthly poll-of-polls shows #Labour's lead widening over the #Conservatives to 19pc, up from 17pc last month. That's still a landslide majority. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our latest monthly poll-of-polls shows #Labour's lead over the #Conservatives steady at 17pc. That would still mean a big Labour majority if there were an election now. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our new monthly poll-of-polls shows #Labour's lead over the #Conservatives down by 2pc to 17pc. That's still big enough for a Blair-style landslide. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Fun fact: according to the new census, the population-weighted centre (median) of the UK is Cash's Park in #Coventry. Half the population lives north, east, south and west of there respectively. And half live within 90 miles of it (red circle).
Our new cartographic map gives equal area to each seat, and now uses the new constituency boundaries. Try it at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/dynamicmap.htm…
Our new MRP poll with @FindoutnowUK for @Channel4News shows Labour set for a big election victory. Full details and data tables now available at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppo…
Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Labour's lead over the #Conservatives very slightly softer, but still large, at 19pc. That would be enough for a big landslide if there were an election soon. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
NEW: full analysis of the finalised new constituency boundaries from the Boundary Commissions. Includes maps, demographics and voting predictions. electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023…
The #Conservatives had a bad time in June, according to our new poll-of-polls, with #Labour increasing their lead to 20pc. That would translate into a significant win for Labour if there were an election soon. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our new poll-of-polls shows #Labour consolidating its lead over the #Conservatives, now at 16pc (up from 15pc last month). Still a landslide for Labour on these figures. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Labour's lead over #Conservatives down to 15pc (it peaked at 26pc under Liz Truss), but still enough for a landslide majority. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Our latest monthly poll-of-polls has #Labour's lead slightly down to 19pc, but still enough for a whopping majority. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Please can we wish all numbers geeks a Happy New Millennium today, as 15 March 2023 is Microsoft Serial Date 45,000. (type =TODAY() in Excel to check).
New Council wards for May 2023 - there are 48 councils with redrawn boundaries, and over 1,000 adjusted wards. See all the details in your seat: electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.…
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@ElectCalculus VERY neat graphic!! Nicely done.
My first reaction to this was: wait, you can't do this until Scotland has released its census data. But then I realized: median for the win
Fun fact: according to the new census, the population-weighted centre (median) of the UK is Cash's Park in #Coventry. Half the population lives north, east, south and west of there respectively. And half live within 90 miles of it (red circle).
New constituency boundaries: @ElectCalculus analysis estimates net effect Con +11 seats Lab -6 Lib Dem -3 Plaid Cymru -2 electoralcalculus.co.uk/boundaries2023…
@ElectCalculus I have reached a whole new level of unemployed in being waiting for this.
This came off the @Savanta_UK MRP (yes, that one)
Pre-Christmas graphical treat for electoral aficionados - see how voters have migrated between parties and/or not-voting since 2019. #Labour have gained voters from nearly as many directions as the #Conservatives have lost them. Details electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_tr…
This is beautiful.
Pre-Christmas graphical treat for electoral aficionados - see how voters have migrated between parties and/or not-voting since 2019. #Labour have gained voters from nearly as many directions as the #Conservatives have lost them. Details electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/pseph_tr…
Exclusive polling by Find Out Now/Electoral Calculus for Channel 4 News has found Labour holds a 45-28 lead over the Conservatives, predicting a majority of over 100 for Labour at the next general election, with over half of Tory MPs losing their seats. @GaryGibbonC4 explains.
Very useful for armchair psephologists ( and professional ones too)
New addition to our website is data on individual and household incomes. Available both as a map (electoralcalculus.co.uk/datamap.html) or in the details of each individual seat (electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.…)
Great chat with @Zakka_Jacob and Martin Baxter of @ElectCalculus about @RishiSunak on @CNNnews18. A lot of interest in the #ToryLeadershipRace in South Asia and the global Indian diaspora, apparently. Here if you fancy watching: youtu.be/HoygLqlXfbA
@CRobertson_LD To be fair to her - but also the good news for us and the country - the figures for Sunak are pretty much the same: x.com/electcalculus/…
New poll with @FindoutnowUK asks people how they would vote in a hypothetical general election with each of the possible Conservative leaders. None of them look like an election winner at this stage. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_conle…
@ElectCalculus @FindoutnowUK I mean, they’re all surely within the margin of error of each other - it doesn’t seem like there is any significant difference between the three of them right now.
Latest polling re. the Conservative leadership from our friends at Electoral Calculus…
Our new poll with @FindoutnowUK shows Rishi #Sunak is most popular among Conservative voters, with Liz #Truss in second place, with other candidates further behind at this stage. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_conle…
@SlaterAlastair @OprosUK @FindoutnowUK @ElectCalculus Read the paper before calling something BS maybe? Greens got a free run at a decent number of seats with Labour and Lib Dems standing aside and endorsing them. Same poll method done in June '21 when Tories had a double digit lead with other pollsters.
@ButcherMartin @ElectCalculus It was to allow Norwich to dredge the river to stop flooding in the city - rather than having to rely on another local authority to do it.
Interesting new poll tonight from @ElectCalculus for @Telegraph, predicting Con to Lab swing of 5.5%, which is large but not enough for Lab, with Con still largest party electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_mrppo…
@lappypercival @thepig993 @ElectCalculus Apparently it's the percentage whose job in the ONS's Standard Occupation Classification falls into major group: 1 (Managers, directors and senior officials) 2 (Professional occupations) 3 (Associate professional occupations) or 4 (Administrative and secretarial occupations).
Lot’s of tweets about Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election. Here’s a profile from @ElectCalculus. 61% leave. Older, lower levels of good education, upper middle class, higher than London av managerial jobs %
A predicted majority of 20 for a governing party which has overseen fuel shortages, unprecedented lockdowns and a recent foreign policy humiliation at the hands of the Taliban is little short of miraculous
Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Labour gaining on the #Conservatives to narrow the gap to around 5pc. Prediction is for a modest Con majority, but politics is looking more competitive again. Details at: electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_mai…
Martin Baxter from @ElectCalculus talks about our joint MRP poll of over 10,000 Britons, showing a drop in support for the Conservatives, on @christopherhope's podcast: Tax, tax and tax some more art19.com/shows/chopper/…
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