DTX Dx @DTX_Dx
trad fi life sci / genomics 🧬 🧫 🔬 | firm believer in concentration over diversification | no advise Joined May 2020-
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Today we’re sharing the full presentation for anyone to read - including: 📈 lessons from the public markets 🎛️ macro uncertainty and what to watch 🛣 founders building for efficiency + scale Full presentation on our website ➡️ bit.ly/CoatueEMW2023 3/3
Wow. Read it. washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/…
Why did $ILMN split-out and then re-acquire Grail? Shareholders need to consider the possibility ILMN insiders sequenced the split-off and $10B buyout to accumulate a material, undisclosed Grail position that later produced a $500m to $1B+ finc'l windfall nongaap.com/p/illumina-mal…
I described some of the most beautiful and famous mathematical theorems to Midjourney. Here is how it imagined them: 1. "The set of real numbers is uncountably infinite."
Jim Clark was the first person to found 3 separate billion dollar technology companies. At 38 he was a self described loser:
The fade of revenue growth post IPO has been quicker than in any other time period. Median revenue growth declined from 35% at IPO to 15% 8 quarters later. Essentially, sellers rush to exit by pumping IPO numbers & the fade arrives quickly once they’ve sold to the “dumb money”.
IPOs from 2020 & onward have been a complete sh*tshow for investors, also vs any other recent IPO period, wiping out huge amounts of investor capital. They not only massively underperformed in terms of return, but also business performance. Lesson: You buy expensive, you lose.
Next gen proteomics: "A typical human cell contains about 300,000 mRNA molecules and about 10 billion protein molecules" genomeweb.com/proteomics-pro…
Sorry but realtors make way too much money for what they do
the 2 most interesting companies in the world right now may well be OpenAI and DeepMind. Entrenched and unfair access to talent and capital in inflecting realms (AI and biotech) where talent and capital are monotonic and non diminishing wrt superiority.
The deep field sky portion of the new #JamesWebbSpaceTelescope image is astonishing.
At a 6.125% mortgage rate the average home price in the US needs to fall ~32% to reach its pre-Covid affordability relative to income.
New paper shows past & present CPI inflation are more similar than official data suggests. When correcting for change in how housing inflation is measured, we find a return to target core inflation will require @ same disinflation as achieved under Volcker nber.org/papers/w30116#…
@stuartathompson Now @LHSummers and co-authors are out with a paper that adjusts the data to argue, in part, that inflation is closer to 1980s levels today when restated. Official 1980 core CPI peak = 13.6% Their redone core CPI peak = 9.1% Today's core CPI = 6.1% nber.org/system/files/w…
A lot of people are asking what's like this today. I know I'll be accused of "talking my book," but the first thing that came to mind is Replit. A lot of older programmers still haven't heard of it yet, but it would hard to find a 16 year old programmer who hadn't.
JUST IN: US Department of Agriculture says China has 69% of world grain reserves in warehouses.
So just to get it on the record again and elaborate a bit: The US is speaking Portuguese and doesn’t even know it. The US is approx 2-3 qtrs behind Brazil in terms of stagflationary roadmap. Today’s window of US vulnerability/soft patch is where Bz was back in the fall. 1/15
…to get me to believe they will slow hikes soon. ***I believe I am the only macro player out here on Fintwit calling for this, but at some point within the next year, maybe even within 6 months, they will hit this with +100bps.*** /FIN
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2K Followers 750 Following not investment advice - write about / invest in growth / biotech businesses. Also dabble in tech. Find me at https://t.co/e2bVc7A0Dfpathologynews @pathologynews
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22K Followers 3K Following Global investor. I publish in-depth research on under-the-radar stocks and special situations. Subscribe at https://t.co/i702QwsNEdIt's very rare to see a public co. founder call out another public co. founder this way, esp out of the blue. Makes you wonder what's going on behind-the-scenes. Why say this now? "You shouldn't assume you're being told the truth by any of these public companies." ooh boy🍿
BIOTECH VS. PHARMA A biotech is a pharma company that’s “unencumbered” by revenue. That can mean more focus, greater speed, and more flexibility.. ..but it can also mean fewer resources, less institutional knowledge, and more risk. Our friends in biotech find awe in the…
$GOOG beats and announces additional buyback and first cash dividend, shares up ~14% after-hours - Revenue: $80.54B vs. $78.59B est - EPS: $1.89 vs. $1.51 est - BoD Authorizes Repurchase Of Additional $70B Of Class A And Class C Shares
Brad Gerstner projects the unit economics of Tesla Robotaxi vs. Uber: ▫️Avg. annual Uber gross booking per car = $140,000 ▫️Estimaed annual Robotaxi gross booking = $100,000 (more utilization = picking up more lower value fares) ▫️Robotaxi has no driver cost (~70% of bookings)…
SAFEs have a flaw. if company never raises equity, note never converts, you never get the equity! this happened w/ @toptal. and investor "got" 10% for $1M via a note that never converted. Toptal is now worth ~$1B. investor have ~$100M reasons to be upset and is suing. This…
The soft landing narrative remains intact, and if anything has gained strength to a fault. Good news is good news until it becomes bad news. It’s probably just a coincidence, but the roaring 1994-1998 soft landing rally had a similar wobble at exactly this time in that cycle. 🧵
✅ Today, the competition list has only gotten longer. (+) Expense Mgmt: Ramp, Brex, Expensify, Navan, Concur (+) Recruiting: Greenhouse, Lever, Jass (+) Global EOR: Deel, Remote, Papaya But Rippling is winning pretty often "A central difference between Rippling and our…
I'm going to ruin some of your days with this. I apologize. $TSLA has been declining since Nov 2021. The resistance line drawn from the first 2 peaks (Nov 2021 and Jan 2022) has been tested and failed 4 times since then. Stocks tend to move from the top of these channels to the…
It’s my thesis that the Fed is trying to not repeat its policy errors of the 1960’s and 1970’s, and to lean against the fiscal dominance. That means higher for longer, until either a recession happens, or inflation progresses further towards the 2-3% range. Neither seems likely…
What other portfolio options have the potential to work in this post-Moderation era? In my view, equities of course, plus some bonds, but also hard assets like gold, Bitcoin, and commodities, plus high yield corporates and TIPS. Plus, with bonds no longer providing a port in…
Below is the number of initial filings for unemployment insurance. How is this statistically possible? Five of the last six weeks, the exact same number. Effectively the same number in the last 11 weeks, except for the holiday weeks (President's Day and Easter). --- Consider…
Duolingo is a fascinating study in consumer "education." The app is fairly useless for language learning* but is wildly popular. 88.4M Monthly Active Users 6.6M Paid Subscribers $530M in FY 2023 Revenue $93.7M in FY 2023 EBITDA The kicker? $8.4B market cap. 2x bigger than…
An entire industry of financial advisors has survived on skimming fees just to brainlessly allocate client funds into low-cost equity and bond index funds. "#Bitcoin is a scam. And gold? That's an unproductive asset." But I'll say it again: There has never been a more important…
If one looks at all the negative comments here against the precious metals miners, one can see why they're so undervalued/hated. The 10+ year gold bull market that began in the early 2000s (miners skyrocketed 1660%) began with virtually no one interested in gold or the miners -…
At this price, gold is $400 per ounce higher than the average realized price by gold miners in Q4. Currently in Q2, most of the increased margin is falling right to the miners' bottom lines (excluding taxes & increased royalties). Yet, gold miners' stocks still badly lagging. The…
Gold just surged to an all-time high of $2,372.10: zerohedge.com/markets/stocks… @zerohedge $GLD $XAUUSD
Another way to visualize the cycle is to show it as a clock. If 12:00 is the start of the cycle, compared to the longest cycles in history, it’s only around 3 pm right now. Based on the average cycle, it’s 6 pm. Time is still on our side. /END
Citadel's Ken Griffin in his first letter to investors in years… “It is irresponsible for the US government to incur a deficit of 6.4% of GDP in a non-recession enviornment… it’s unsustainable. We must stop borrowing at the expense of our future generations.”
#Silver is about to break out of a 13 year long volatility compression pattern. Big picture charts like this don't come around often. The next run towards $26 will be the breakout that will lead us in quick succession to $30 and $50.
There is a really fascinating book about the history of p53 - originally it was thought to be an oncogene (as the first version discovered turned out to be a mutated version) rather than a tumor suppressor. Then views oscillated back and forth for many years. p53: The Gene that…
P53 has been described as the body’s representative in each cell. A protein that prioritizes the interests of the whole body over the interests of each individual cell in the body.