Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

… @grok a few followup questions in that case – trying to get at rationality of consistently paying that +15% premium for fuel, from American perspective: 1️⃣ what is gasoline as a percent of the total cost of ownership (TCO) of the average car? 2️⃣ quantify the net present value of paying for that premium fuel (i.e. +15% premium gas cost vs lower maintenance cost and longer vehicle useful life) 3️⃣ given US standards, quantify the quality variability within a grade of fuel (e.g. 87 octane) between the median independent unbranded gas station and the median branded station (like Exxon)

Can somebody please explain to me how a gas station charging $4.25 (+15% premium) can survive next to another gas station that charges $3.65…? Fwiw, it's almost always the Exxon Mobil $xom that's most expensive vs local entrepreneur that's price undercutting – which is another fascinating economies (diseconomies) of scale question…

@TheStalwart @Silicon_Data Yea, that… x.com/i/status/20111…

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

5 months ago

For all the bluster by open source evangelists, it's funny how often everyone refers to a lot of AI models as "open" with explicit/implicit suggestion that they're "open source" (OSI), when they're really at most "open weights"… lol Qwen, Deepseek, Grok, Llama – has anyone ever

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…related: x.com/i/status/20611…

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

a week ago

Insane how fast life comes at you in professional sports, NBA, etc – one week ago, Chet Holmgren thought he got drafted into a young dynasty where he'd spend the rest of his career; and this morning he's trade bait for Giannis because wemby is a unicorn… #okc #thunder

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Poor analogy – and analogy that'll age poorly… #wemby #kat #chet

Rob Perez @WorldWideWob

4 days ago

Wemby you are one bad second half away from being to KAT what Chet was to you.

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…Democrats are going to run Hunter Biden for president in 2028, and the stupidest outcome is him beating GOP candidate Ivanka Trump, ergo MAGA Republicans have to outstupid stupid and run Don Jr x.com/i/status/20626… #Election2028

Three Year Letterman @3YearLetterman

5 days ago

He mastered this app in 72 hours in a way I haven’t been able to do in almost 9 years All you can do is tip your cap

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They're going to run Ivanka (and Jared?) for President in Election 2028, aren't they...?! #Trump

Hitting a round-ball with a round-bat (baseball) might be the most difficult act in all of the major American sports, but hockey players are the most talented in aggregate – not even particularly close imho: sure, linebackers (football) and 7-footers (basketball) are freak athletes; but what the NHL does for 84+ games, on skates, on ice, stickhandling an erratically prone disk, in traffic, at high speed, with opponents hanging all over them, while trying to knock-your-block-off… is a miracle on the scale of "it's unbelievable that humankind actually achieved this"… #skill

…would be wild if the consequence of datacenter, etc supply shortages and capacity constraints was a shift from server to client¹: offloading a lotta AI inference from cloud to your smartphone/laptop still requires hardware upgrades² and model improvisation (including self-hosted open weights³), but would incrementally solve a number of problems __ ¹x.com/i/status/16889… ²x.com/i/status/18686… ³x.com/i/status/20111… #iphone #mobile

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

5 months ago

For all the bluster by open source evangelists, it's funny how often everyone refers to a lot of AI models as "open" with explicit/implicit suggestion that they're "open source" (OSI), when they're really at most "open weights"… lol Qwen, Deepseek, Grok, Llama – has anyone ever

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…again, AI boom getting busted by supply shortages isn't base case yet imho (e.g. I actually see a path to profitability⁴), but you can see how, for example, construction delays⁵ compound over time and everything unravels (n.b. afaik nobody knows whether or not 30~40% annual datacenter construction delay and deferral rate is normalized/worsening/catastrophic/manageable/etc) 🏁 __ ⁴x.com/i/status/20417… ⁵x.com/i/status/20412…

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

2 months ago

…re datacenter construction delays from supply chain shortages and bottlenecks: 🛠️ 30–50% of 2026CY datacenter pipeline unlikely to come online before 2026YE (vs 36%¹ in 2025CY)... ↳ 16GW announced for 2026CYe (140 projects total) 🟰 5GW currently under construction ➕

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…not to zag, but re the whole "companies staying private longer; startups going public after hoarding all their growth as private businesses; depriving Americans of IPO stonks that share the upside with the investing public": 1️⃣ supply shortage of publicly traded US stocks (e.g. Wiltshire <5000 and buybacks) amidst accelerating financialization¹ 2️⃣ amm, look at excess returns for the past ~20 years while you've been bellyaching about VC/PE/founders hoarding gains 3️⃣ nothing anomalous about the aggregate number or dollar volument of IPO new issuance over this stretch (except, again, net supply due to accelerating repurchases) __ ¹x.com/AnthPB/status/…

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

9 months ago

…fwiw, I've previously referred to this increasing financialization's (combine with passive investing's) impact on the income/financial asset contingency a "macro proxy"¹ and "endogenous investor demand/flows"²: ¹x.com/AnthPB/status/… ²x.com/AnthPB/status/…

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1⃣Series C crunch 2️⃣De facto deregulation 3⃣sustaining unsustainable disruption (not creative, just destruction) 4⃣wealth concentration

…Congress is in session (apnews.com/article/iran-w…): "The House for the first time Wednesday approved a war powers resolution that would halt the US military action against Iran, defying President Donald Trump as a handful of Republicans joined with Democrats [in a vote tally] 215-208, but next steps are uncertain… "The resolution next goes to the Senate, where four Republican senators last month joined Democrats in advancing a similar measure [for which it] has yet to take a final vote to approve or reject its own war powers resolution… Trump would likely reject any measure from Congress to limit his commander-in-chief authority. Still, the tally, with four Republicans joining Democrats, was a rebuke of the president’s war strategy, and cheers erupted in the House chamber… "While Congress has the authority under the Constitution to declare war, the president also has power as the commander in chief to engage in military action, creating a legal dispute over which branch of government has ultimate say in matters of war and peace. If Senate joins the House to approve the resolution, it could set the stage for a fresh legal test… Under the war powers act, the White House has a 60-day window to seek approval from Congress for military action. The administration, however, has indicated that because a ceasefire has been declared in the current conflict in Iran, the hostilities have ceased."

…if Trump/Xi China summit¹ didn't make headway in Iran War resolution, rn is kinda a diplomatic airpocket for opening Strait of Hormuz …inventory tank bottoms in June, so oil and gas futures curve in backwardation should rerate – forcing extra spicy TACO __ ¹nytimes.com/2026/05/14/wor… #brent #rbob $brn $bz $wti $cl_f $uso $rb_f #gasoline

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"UN Security Council permanent member veto power..." 🙃 as the United Nations Security Council hosts an open session on Russian conflict in Ukraine... #putin

…Joe Weisenthal @stalwart 🎯 – "12 reasons why it's the coldest crypto winter ever" (x.com/i/status/20618…): 1️⃣ The crypto drawdown is happening at a period of rising anxiety about dollar 2️⃣ If you're in crypto, you can no longer plausibly say things like "we're so early" 3️⃣ Crypto twitter is dead 4️⃣ Institutional adoption already happened, removing any future tailwinds 5️⃣ The regulatory environment is already about as favorable as it gets 6️⃣ The AI boom is crowding out access to electricity (a crucial input for miners) 7️⃣ Crypto…was all over the Epstein Files 8️⃣ concern about quantum computing [breaking] Bitcoin's security model 9️⃣ DAT companies (like Strategy $mstr)… are now sellers rather than buyers of crypto… 1️⃣0️⃣ AI is taking up all the mental market share… 1️⃣1️⃣ people are making so much money [in stonks] 1️⃣2️⃣ [Zcash $zec has already won this downturn]

Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart

a week ago

12 REASONS WHY IT'S THE COLDEST CRYPTO WINTER EVER Back in February I wrote a list of 10 reasons why this the worst crypto winter ever. Well everything I cited then still holds, but now I have 2 more ways it's gotten worse: From the newsletter bloomberg.com/account/newsle…

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…here's the Trump SEC crypto regulation and security laws¹ – kinda skirts Howey Test tbh: 1️⃣ most coins and tokens are digital commodities (e.g. $btc $eth $sol etc) 2️⃣ NFTs are digital collectibles 3️⃣ stablecoins 4️⃣ obvious securities (token-wrapped equity) 5️⃣ mining and staking aren't securities (PoW/PoS) 6️⃣ ICOs can be securities (primary public offerings to non-accredited or institutional investors), but secondary trading has many loopholes (exempting exchanges) __ ¹bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

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"Mark Cuban calls for more stablecoin regulation after trading DeFi token [$titan] that crashed to zero..." #crypto

Joe Weisenthal @TheStalwart

5 years ago

BREAKING: Mark Cuban calls for more stablecoin regulation after trading DeFi token that crashed to zero bloomberg.com/news/articles/… $TITAN

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…NYT went ahead and did an infographic about this¹ – tracking Elon Musk's promises and deadlines for on-time, late delivery, misses, etc²: "Elon Musk laid out 602 goals and we counted how many he hit… Strikingly, Mr. Musk's annual rate of success declined over time, even as he made more promises. Of the 13 goals he declared in 2015, he later achieved nearly three-quarters of them, [but] of the 27 claims he made in 2020, fewer than half have been accomplished on time. Some still have deadlines far in the future." __ ¹x.com/i/status/18451… ²nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

2 years ago

…afaik, Elon usually overpromises, underdelivers, over time, and over budget – but at least he ships (and ships big ideas/innovations), usually, I guess, idk: x.com/AnthPB/status/…

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@elonmusk > re: x.com/elonmusk/statu… Elon, would be cool for you (or your spox) to maintain a webpage to track/audit your own predictions – would be a useful self-audit and counterspeech to this exhaustive list of your missed deadlines and broken promises: elonmusk.today

Elon Musk @elonmusk

2 years ago

For my time-based predictions, I generally aim for the 50% percentile date, which means that half my predictions will be late and half will be early. The press never mentions the predictions that were early, so it seems like I’m always late. However, it is very rare that a

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Can argue $meta both has and hasn't done well with comms in the post Sheryl Sandberg era – messaging has def been mixed bag (how methodical is strategic direction?), but her last day as COO was 2022/07/29, at the bottom of TikTok omnicrisis, and for all the gripes about inscrutability, Zuck's actually been pretty clear about which spaghetti they're throwing against which walls… while IR/PR doesn't matter a whole lot because supervoting control and biz en fuego, it kinda matters for second order effects (e.g. ripping an $80B mixed shelf/ATM¹ to fund said spaghetti)… idk, just brain dumping… __ ¹x.com/i/status/20615… $fb #facebook

Eric Seufert @eric_seufert

a week ago

Meta’s subscriptions and the advertising narrative blind spot Public market investors understand subscription economics intuitively. They may be less fluent in AI-enabled advertising economics, which are harder to model, especially across the three axes I highlight in the

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…Daily Treasury Statement payroll tax withholdings¹ proxy for income growth (as of month-end 5/29) – despite other wage/income/compensation measures showing material decelerations², DTS effectively maintained trend velocity, with still no signs of Iran war externalities³ ⁴: 👍 monthly: +4.2% yoy in May (-20bps mom May/April) 👍 quarterly: +4.3% yoy in Q2 qtd (+35bps qoq Q2/Q1) 👍 yearly: +4.1% yoy in 2026 ytd ___ ¹daily weekday average "taxes withheld individual/FICA" (fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily… #dts) ²fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WK00 ³from earlier in this thread (x.com/AnthPB/status/… and x.com/AnthPB/status/…)

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Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

2 weeks ago

…probability of a 2026 postwar economic bullwhip effect¹? New orders² ³ have clearly inflected upward, as has transportation⁴ pricing and demand – simple to attribute to Iran War supply chain disruptions and shortages, but how sustainable/organic (since not much⁵ acceleration

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…probability of a 2026 postwar economic bullwhip effect¹? New orders² ³ have clearly inflected upward, as has transportation⁴ pricing and demand – simple to attribute to Iran War supply chain disruptions and shortages, but how sustainable/organic (since not much⁵ acceleration to speak of outside of AI)? __ ¹x.com/i/status/15657… ²fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1WCop ³ismworld.org/supply-managem…. ⁴x.com/i/status/20588… (trucking has some idiosyncracies from its own bullwhip; FMCSA enforcement on safety and operations; SCOTUS ruling; etc) ⁵x.com/i/status/20574…

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

3 weeks ago

@EconomPic consumer card spending data stabilized in early May, but starting to wiggle again this week… x.com/i/status/20477… #consumption

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@talmonsmith …related 🧵: x.com/i/status/19732…

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

8 months ago

@annotote …2025q2 US wealth stratification (total 🆚 top 1% 🆚 90-99% 🆚 50-90% 🆚 bottom 50%) – wealth gap still closing while liquidity flat: 1️⃣ total net worth (indexed to GFC and share) 2️⃣ TNW ($M and share) 3️⃣ checkable deposits (indexed and share) #inequality #percentile #decile

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> "From 2000 to 2025 the real [weekly] earnings of full-time workers essentially went unchanged"¹ incomplete if you exclude benefits (e.g. health insurance, retirement plans like 401k matches, bonuses, paid leave, etc), which have grown as a share of total compensation… can still talk about the k-shaped and gator jaw economy² of wages vs total comp, but not income aggregates… __ ¹x.com/i/status/20611… ²x.com/i/status/20611…

talmon joseph smith @talmonsmith

a week ago

Real Pretax Income Growth for Adults (age 20+), Jan 2024 to Mar 2026: -- 0.5% for the Bottom 50% -- 6.6% for the top 10% Gator Jaw Economy strikes again /__ (data via UCB's Real Time Inequality tracker): realtimeinequality.org/?id=income&inc… #RealtimeInequality #IncomeInequality

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@OrevaZSN > ‘shazam for car noises’ There's an app for that… x.com/i/status/20117… #auto #mechanic #ai

MIDΞ (❖,❖) @theProcessXCII

5 months ago

my mechanic told me he wants to learn AI, 🤣. My car made a weird noise, before he came ChatGPT had already told me what came off, so as soon as my mechanic came over, I told him, has to be this. He was shocked, and was like how did I know ? And I’m like I used AI, and it even

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Insane how fast life comes at you in professional sports, NBA, etc – one week ago, Chet Holmgren thought he got drafted into a young dynasty where he'd spend the rest of his career; and this morning he's trade bait for Giannis because wemby is a unicorn… #okc #thunder

jordy. @ndgojordy

a week ago

this one means something to Wemby

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@DavidSacks @pmarca …same vibe – "zero evidence of AI job losses": x.com/i/status/20609… #data

Logan Dobson @LoganDobson

a week ago

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@DavidSacks @pmarca fwiw, not sure polls show AI is unpopular like that – narrative is snowballing, unfortunately... x.com/i/status/20503…

Anthony Bardaro @AnthPB

a month ago

…perception-reality gap in public polls¹ ² ³ about AI popular sentiment (and thus narrative fallacy cc @reckless @pierce @verge) – huge breach⁴ between those who have and haven't used AI, and regular vs irregular users: USERS NONUSERS 😬 Anxiety:

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