Alexi Savov @AlexiSavov
Professor of Finance, @NYUStern pages.stern.nyu.edu/~asavov New York, NY Joined July 2009-
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@ah_shapiro Thanks for doing this. This is evidence in favor of what we've been arguing for a while: the 1965-82 inflation cycles were supply driven, due to credit crunches. Slides: drive.google.com/file/d/1-2QL_p…
I've extended the supply & demand driven PCE inflation series back to 1969. There are large differences between the inflation of the 1970s/80s and the recent surge. The 70s/80s was mainly supply driven (about 3/4 of core inflation) whereas the recent surge has been evenly split
Very cool to hear @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart discuss the workings of the banking system with Josh Younger. A fundamental implication of deposit betas<<1: monetary policy governs total bank lending/credit as @AlexiSavov, @schnabl_econ and I showed in academic.oup.com/qje/article-ab…
I heard somewhere this is a very good job with excellent supervisors.
I heard somewhere this is a very good job with excellent supervisors.
Predocs! Philipp Schnabl @schnabl_econ and I are once again hiring a full-time RA. Come work with us on banking and macro finance. We'll review applications on a rolling basis. Full listing here: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~asavov/alexis… @econ_ra #EconTwitter
The economic story from 30K feet: After covid: supply chain disruptions --> lower productivity--> prices rise faster and lower real wages As supply chains recovered, this went in reverse: higher productivity --> prices rise slower and higher real wages
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@clintballinger @AlexiSavov Yes I am and as the great Leslie Nielsen said in Naked Gun, “don’t call me Shirley.”
@tracyalloway @TheStalwart Not fair, The history of the 70s banking industry (& its interaction with monetary policy) used to be something one could trot out in a pinch to impress, Now people will just say, yeah I listened to the episode as well
One of my fave episodes from this year
NEW ODD LOTS: @tracyalloway and I had a fascinating conversation with Wharton finance professor @idrechs on the drivers of 1970s inflation, and the role Reg Q played in impairing monetary policy transmission and exacerbating supply side constraints. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🇪🇺 - Europe's de-risking plans will be hard to implement in practice • Huge share of spare parts for EU's manufacturing sector (eg. automotive) are imported from China • China's global edge in electric-vehicle sector means that this trend will likely deepen in coming years
Exciting news! Our book "SVB and Beyond: The Banking Stress of 2023" is now available! 📖 Co-authored with my amazing colleagues at @NYUStern, it's an exploration of the recent banking turmoil's events, causes, and proposed solutions. stern.nyu.edu/experience-ste…
Mother of god. Allegedly, a Belgorod state border entry point, the Russian side.
@AlexiSavov @IrvingSwisher The Phillips curve totally ignores production and supply dynamics and is too simplistic
Insightful and informative thread on banks' risk management. The key information: Deposit franchise is effectively an interest rate swap
SVB got in trouble for investing in MBS. It’s certainly not alone in doing so. Why do banks invest in assets like MBS in the first place? 1/
Very detailed research
1. In a recent note with @idrechs and @schnabl_econ , we estimated banks’ unrealized losses on loans and securities at about $1.75 trillion. We argued they are at least partly offset by gains on the deposit franchise. We estimate these gains in a new note: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~asavov/alexis…
Interesting thread on FED rate, savings' interest, MTM of bank assets and stickiness of deposits by NYU's Savov 👇
1. In a recent note with @idrechs and @schnabl_econ , we estimated banks’ unrealized losses on loans and securities at about $1.75 trillion. We argued they are at least partly offset by gains on the deposit franchise. We estimate these gains in a new note: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~asavov/alexis…
Very simple but elaborate explanation to understand bank’s operations and resulting risk
SVB got in trouble for investing in MBS. It’s certainly not alone in doing so. Why do banks invest in assets like MBS in the first place? 1/
A very interesting perspective on the current banking crisis.
1. In a recent note with @idrechs and @schnabl_econ , we estimated banks’ unrealized losses on loans and securities at about $1.75 trillion. We argued they are at least partly offset by gains on the deposit franchise. We estimate these gains in a new note: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~asavov/alexis…
@AlexiSavov @idrechs @schnabl_econ Another place with “deposits” are FCMs (clear futures trades and hold excess customer margin). Normally, “long volatility” as@trading volumes surge. This time looks different. Largest publicly traded one…cnbc.com/quotes/SNEX
Very valid point!
1. In a recent note with @idrechs and @schnabl_econ , we estimated banks’ unrealized losses on loans and securities at about $1.75 trillion. We argued they are at least partly offset by gains on the deposit franchise. We estimate these gains in a new note: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~asavov/alexis…
@alejandroll10 The point of their paper is that a bank's franchise comes with fixed costs (maintaining the branch network), so it makes sense to have long duration assets whose cash-flows hedge/cover those costs (and then some) - as long as you have a sticky (insured?) depositor base, that is!
Alexi Savov, Itamar Drechsler and I have a new note on how to estimate the deposit franchise value. This is a key factor when evaluating the stability of banks @AlexiSavov @idrechs
1. In a recent note with @idrechs and @schnabl_econ , we estimated banks’ unrealized losses on loans and securities at about $1.75 trillion. We argued they are at least partly offset by gains on the deposit franchise. We estimate these gains in a new note: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~asavov/alexis…
Super important observation on bank fair value accounting. If you fair value the assets, maybe you need to fair value the funding too
1. In a recent note with @idrechs and @schnabl_econ , we estimated banks’ unrealized losses on loans and securities at about $1.75 trillion. We argued they are at least partly offset by gains on the deposit franchise. We estimate these gains in a new note: pages.stern.nyu.edu/~asavov/alexis…
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