Mdyg 12 @3jsTom

@Crypto_hedyEth @grok: summarize to copy

"How will the millennials and Gen Zers retire comfortably if they don't own a house and are gonna have to rent forever?" "If you look at 1994 the average house was $130,000" "Rent was $450" "If someone bought a house in 1994, 30 years later today that home is probably worth around $400,000 and paid off" "In the next 30 years, the average house in 2054 will be $1.2 million" "This is a major concern" Source TikTok fmsmith319🚨🚨🚨

A landmark building in Portland just sold at a shocking 85% discount - yes that's not a typo The Montgomery Park office building sold for $37.7 million What did it sell for back in 2021? $255 million The commercial real estate 'correction' (primarily office) has gone from scary to an outright apocalypse in many cities across the US For the latest updates on the commercial real estate meltdown just like this, make sure to follow @TripleNetInvest

Going into 2024, I predicted it would be a stock picker's year, & so far, this has proven true -- let's explore the top 15 performers of the year that I track in my model & examine their competitive moats 👇

The franchise industry creates dangerous hype cycles. Over the last 5 years, I’ve seen the cycle repeat itself many times. If you’re evaluating new franchises, don’t fall for it. Here's how it works:

I've traded for 6 years and tried everything: - Penny stocks - Options - Futures -Supply/Demand - ICT And this 3 step strategy beats ALL of them by a landslide: 🧵

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF WHAT EVERY SINGLE BANK EXPECTS FROM THE STOCK MARKET IN 2024 🧵

I secretly go on vacations to random US suburbs, and there is nothing like it! Just got back from one, and fired up. Let me explain: When you go to a place like Rome or Barcelona, you want to see as much as you can, experience the area like a local, and hit all the top spots. You want to leave with a really good sense of the city and the local culture. That is exactly what our team does when we buy a strip mall, but we take it many steps further. We pack our bags, book a hotel right in town, and set off excitedly. We arrive, and the work starts. -We talk to the locals, anyone and everyone -We find out where they like to go, what they like or don't like about the community, and just listen. They will go on endlessly about everything you could imagine, and much more. Nobody ever asks them these questions, and they will tell all. And then we go a few steps farther: -We find out what is being built and where, and go check it out in-person -We find out where the locals go for fun, and visit ourselves -Wineries, country clubs, parks, you name it, we go see it -We drive back and forth up and down the major streets, and many of the side streets, stop people, ask questions -We talk to the mailman, the garbage man, the police officers -We stop in City Hall and talk to anyone and everyone -We talk to the manager of the local pizza place, and that new Chipotle - and dozens of other businesses all over the city -We find out how much houses sell for in different areas -We find out where the community staple businesses are, and we visit them -We visit and research the schools -We find out where the jobs are, and visit the office buildings -We find out which developers are building, how much they're spending, how much profit there is for them -How much is the city growing, where, and why. -Where are people moving in from, where do they leave to, and why. -Is the city spending money on infrastructure, and where that money is coming from -Where are the local hospitals and how do they rank - we visit each -We visit the little league fields, the library, the parks, the hiking trails. It's an intense week, but incredibly satisfying. You fly in as a total stranger, knowing only what you've researched, and leave with many new friends, and a deeper understanding of the community than many locals. I now not only know the area inside in out, but my investment as well. Gives me much more confidence than just data and spreadsheets -- and my investors are better off for it. The US suburban vacation - one of my favorite things about this business.

Some real estate principles I live by:

I retired at 35 after working a 14-year career. From the moment I set foot in an office, I learned the hard way how f-ed up a lot of our society is. Here are 12 uncomfortable facts about life I learned the hard way.

I almost lost $40,000 last year in the PERFECT real estate scam. a Wholesaler brought me a fixer-upper just like many that I had bought before. I had also worked with this wholesaler before as well. I went to look at the house. There were multiple investors also looking but I was able to get my offer accepted for $200k. Arv was $340-350,000 so it didn’t seem crazy and it felt like a normal wholesale deal. No red flags, no alarm bells at all. Everything looked 100% above board, title checked out, escrow checked out, the scammer even walked into escrow, notarized and signed all the papers like a totally normal transaction The scammer even put down his thumbprint in the notary book, provided a drivers license and everything so everything looked completely legitimate. Escrow was closed. Funds were wired and the bank that the funds were wired to froze the account due to fraudulent activity, $200,000 was wired to a bank account and then a large portion of it was immediately wired overseas and $17,000 was taken out of multiple ATMs in a coordinated attack. Luckily the bank flagged the account for fraudulent activity and froze everything but the scammers got away with $17,000 in cash. The wire for $150,000 was never sent thank God. It took months and months to reverse all the transactions. The FBI even got involved. All the money had to be returned. Insurance had to get involved then the transaction had to be undone and luckily I got 100% of my $40,000 back but it took four months and lots of stress. My hard money lender had funded the loan for 160,000, thank God he also got 100% of his money back too Turns out that the seller of the house I was buying was not actually the seller. He found a vacant fixer house, used a fake ID, and stole the real sellers identity. The guy I bought the house from was one race the true owner was a different race. The scammer had opened a bank account in the name of the real owner’s trust. How he was able to open an account in the name of a trust without paperwork I will never know. Careful out there kids!

@dig_deeper1 IMO Key is to look for local experienced PM that has vetted local contractors over time. The PM will know who to hire based on size and complexity of job.

@EstateRanger Great info. Thank you

Everyone on Twitter talks about how to make money in real estate. But no one talks about how you can lose all your money in real estate. One wrong move, and you're bankrupt So, let's go through the most common way real estate owners lose a lot of money!

Yesterday’s HSBC $TSLA report that carries a Reduce (Sell) rating and a $146 PT relies on classic reversion-to-the-mean analysis, and seems more like how one would value a slow-growth legacy auto company than a high growth tech stock like $TSLA. The research team uses two common approaches - DCF and multiples-based - to derive their $146 valuation. The DCF approach presumes huge TSLA EV share losses between 2023-2030, a 30% ASP reduction over the same period, and most critically, a 2.5%(!!) terminal earnings growth rate assumption. This leads to a $201/share DCF-based valuation. The multiples approach produces a $92/share valuation and is based on 2023 and 2024 Ebitda and EPS (way too short-term) and applies Magnificent 6 multiples to each. This fails to capture the super growth expected by most $TSLza investors as global EV adoption accelerates and TSLA TAM doubles from Cybertruck and the $25K vehicle, which both produce the vast majority of their value after 2024. HSBC weights the DCF and multiple-based approaches at 50%/50% to produce a $TSLA base case valuation of $146/share.

My mentor is a self made billionaire 10 years ago he told me “just buy 10 houses anyway you can it will completely change your life” So that’s exactly what I did. He said buy houses for $100,000 that rent for $1000 a month. That was his whole thing. Now he owns thousands and thousands of houses. Really really simple but not easy Print this out and look at it all the time. This is the framework that made my friend a billionaire He came from absolutely nothing and he will be the first person to tell you he’s not that smart. Obviously, my goal is not to own thousands of houses but if I can just do 1% of what he has accomplished I’m going to do just fine.

One of my quick, back of the napkin methods to get a fair purchase price. All you need is monthly or annual income. Annual income -(minus) 5% economic vacancy -(minus) 30-40% expense ratio (depending on class of asset) = NOI Divide that NOI number by the market cap rate. Bam, you have a back of the napkin fair purchase price. If you were given an asking price, how far off is the asking price from your back of napkin price? If it’s not too much, then dive into the numbers deeper. If the delta between their asking and your back of napkin price is larger, probably don’t waste your time giving it a full underwrite.

@unusual_whales Sell your stock, wire cash to title. Borrow family money immediately after closing and try to put back as much as you can immediately. Might loose some percent gain in short term. Or maybe not. Good luck

The gov’t has about 48 hours to fix a-soon-to-be-irreversible mistake. By allowing @SVB_Financial to fail without protecting all depositors, the world has woken up to what an uninsured deposit is — an unsecured illiquid claim on a failed bank. Absent @jpmorgan @citi or @BankofAmerica acquiring SVB before the open on Monday, a prospect I believe to be unlikely, or the gov’t guaranteeing all of SVB’s deposits, the giant sucking sound you will hear will be the withdrawal of substantially all uninsured deposits from all but the ‘systemically important banks’ (SIBs). These funds will be transferred to the SIBs, US Treasury (UST) money market funds and short-term UST. There is already pressure to transfer cash to short-term UST and UST money market accounts due to the substantially higher yields available on risk-free UST vs. bank deposits. These withdrawals will drain liquidity from community, regional and other banks and begin the destruction of these important institutions. The increased demand for short-term UST will drive short rates lower complicating the @federalreserve’s efforts to raise rates to slow the economy. Already thousands of the fastest growing, most innovative venture-backed companies in the U.S. will begin to fail to make payroll next week. Had the gov’t stepped in on Friday to guarantee SVB’s deposits (in exchange for penny warrants which would have wiped out the substantial majority of its equity value) this could have been avoided and SVB’s 40-year franchise value could have been preserved and transferred to a new owner in exchange for an equity injection. We would have been open to participating. This approach would have minimized the risk of any gov’t losses, and created the potential for substantial profits from the rescue. Instead, I think it is now unlikely any buyer will emerge to acquire the failed bank. The gov’t’s approach has guaranteed that more risk will be concentrated in the SIBs at the expense of other banks, which itself creates more systemic risk. For those who make the case that depositors be damned as it would create moral hazard to save them, consider the feasibility of a world where each depositor must do their own credit assessment of the bank they choose to bank with. I am a pretty sophisticated financial analyst and I find most banks to be a black box despite the 1,000s of pages of @SECGov filings available on each bank. SVB’s senior management made a basic mistake. They invested short-term deposits in longer-term, fixed-rate assets. Thereafter short-term rates went up and a bank run ensued. Senior management screwed up and they should lose their jobs. The @FDICgov and OCC also screwed up. It is their job to monitor our banking system for risk and SVB should have been high on their watch list with more than $200B of assets and $170B of deposits from business borrowers in effectively the same industry. The FDIC’s and OCC’s failure to do their jobs should not be allowed to cause the destruction of 1,000s of our nation’s highest potential and highest growth businesses (and the resulting losses of 10s of 1,000s of jobs for some of our most talented younger generation) while also permanently impairing our community and regional banks’ access to low-cost deposits. This administration is particularly opposed to concentrations of power. Ironically, its approach to SVB’s failure guarantees duopolistic banking risk concentration in a handful of SIBs. My back-of-the envelope review of SVB’s balance sheet suggests that even in a liquidation, depositors should eventually get back about 98% of their deposits, but eventually is too long when you have payroll to meet next week. So even without assigning any franchise value to SVB, the cost of a gov’t guarantee of SVB deposits would be minimal. On the other hand, the unintended consequences of the gov’t’s failure to guarantee SVB deposits are vast and profound and need to be considered and addressed before Monday. Otherwise, watch out below.