Gary Black @garyblack00
Managing Partner, The Future Fund LLC, SEC registered investment adviser. CEO/CIO/PM. https://t.co/FVygs3Yhc0. Disclosure: https://t.co/omhTsCtilh thefuturefund.com Chicago, IL Joined August 2019-
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Odds are very high that $TSLA shareholders will approve Elon’s 2018 comp plan at the 2024 Annual meeting - just as it was approved by 73% of outside shareholders in 2018. @elonmusk earned it and the DE court struck it down on faulty board process. I can’t see large SHs voting…
Many traders opting to reduce risk heading into the weekend amid a drumbeat of hawkish Fedspeak and geopolitical uncertainty. SPX -0.66% NDX -1.68% 10yrTY 4.62% -1.6bp NVDA -6.6% META -3.7% TSLA -1.2%
$TSLA 1Q metrics for next week’s earnings (WS consensus): - Adj EPS $.52 (-39% YoY) - Auto GM ex-RC & Def rev 15.9% (vs 18.1% YA) - Free cash flow $1.2B - FY’24 Vols 1,937K (+7% YoY) - FY’24 Auto GM ex-RC & Def rev 16.3% - FY’24 Adj EPS $2.77
The most common question I get is where’s the bottom on $TSLA? Assuming TSLA does not delay production of the $25K compact past 2026, the TSLA floor should be ~$125, assuming mgmt guides to flat FY’2024 YoY volume growth next week, and reports 1Q auto gross margins ex-reg…
In today’s pre-mkt summary for subscribers: Israel’s measured retaliatory strike on Iran; oil prices stable; $TSLA earnings next week likely to signal more estimate cuts, reduced FY’24 volume guidance, and no big changes in timing of $25K compact relative to robotaxi.
Article in The Electric today frames the $TSLA robotaxi/$25K compact investment controversy well.
$TSLA: There’s a disconnect between investors who cheer Elon’s presumed prioritization of robotaxi over the $25K compact, and others who want the company to continue to go down the dual path of both a robotaxi and $25K compact in tandem. The first group fervently believes that…
$NFLX (-3% AH) posted a strong beat on 1Q net adds (+9.3M vs +4.8M exp), Revs ($9,370M vs $9,260M) and EPS ($5.28 vs $3.60E) but 2Q rev guidance was slightly below WS ests ($9.49B vs $9.51B est). The 2Q EPS guide was $4.68 vs $4.54 est. FY’24 oper margin guide was 25.0% vs 24.1%…
From my Subscribers’ post this morning: $TSLA continues to drift lower as investors anticipate a 1Q earnings miss (WS $.53 Adj EPS), lower auto gross margins ex-reg credits/def rev (WS 15.9%) and guidance of flat FY’24 volume growth (WS expects +7% FY’24 volume growth) when…
$TSLA -1.5% pre-mkt after Deutsche Bank TSLA bull Emmanuel Rosner downgraded $TSLA from Buy to Hold based on his expectation that TSLA will delay the launch of the $25K Compact past its previous late-2025 launch date. Rosner reduced his TSLA PT from $189 to $123.
Investors ask why @GerberKawasaki gets asked back on CNBC regularly to talk about $TSLA? Short answer: Ross is highly credible after being correctly cautious on TSLA over the past 12 months as other bulls spun any TSLA news as positive, despite clearly deteriorating…
$TSLA stock price following last 4 TSLA earnings reports: - 4Q 2023 -12% - 3Q 2023 -9% - 2Q 2023 -10% - 1Q 2023 -10% The past is no predictor of the future, but IMO TSLA mgmt needs to focus on why fundamentals will improve (i.e earnings ests will stop declining) and stay away…
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14K Followers 137 Following Tesla China Whip,Tesla Model 3 X Y &FSD Owner@garyblack00 One of your very best recent posts. Thanks for the balance.
@garyblack00 @thejefflutz @SawyerMerritt @TroyTeslike @TSLAFanMtl That’s why Jeff said “Same in reverse too.” You’re essentially in agreement while pointing out the other side of the mirror.
@garyblack00 @thejefflutz @SawyerMerritt @TroyTeslike @TSLAFanMtl The quiet ones are the most appreciative.
As much as I have criticized Elon for his decisions and actions from 2021 on, he clearly earned his comp package. A deal's a deal, imo. How is this even a question?
@garyblack00 Gary, thank you for being a voice of reason. Tesla’s focus cannot be only autonomy; Tesla needs to also focus on & start selling the Next Gen vehicle to continue the MASS ADOPTION of EVs. We need to kick the gas habit for good and Tesla needs to continue leading on that!!
@garyblack00 Gary's totally correct here. Inventory will start to move now
@garyblack00 that’s the plan. they’ll be produced on the same production “line” using the unboxed process
@garyblack00 @thejefflutz @My_name_is_L69 Jeff, lets be honest. We need to stop blaming interest rates and macro. People have jobs and money to spend. Elon only knows how to sell to early adopters who think like him. Brand matters, perception matters, education matters. That is how you reach the masses.
@garyblack00 @thejefflutz @My_name_is_L69 Very thankful that you are willing to put up with all the negativity Gary. Your insight and wisdom that you share with the Tesla community is priceless. It’s unfortunate that the most vocal are also the most ignorant.
@garyblack00 @thejefflutz @My_name_is_L69 Gary, we don't agree on everything, but you have always been a great asset to the Tesla community. Don't let the Elon-bootlicking haters get you down.
@StanislavKofan1 Retail is loosing money because they don’t want to listen to fundamentals and cry foul, call you names when you do (what happened to @TroyTeslike and @garyblack00 ) and just want to listen to the “Everything is fine, because of xyz we’re going to the moon soon” talk from…
@garyblack00 @thejefflutz @My_name_is_L69 And many people (including me) value you, Gary, highly for everything you do and your constructive analysis! 🎯👍🙏
Here is what I expect to hear next week on the earnings call: - Revenue doesn't matter. ❌️ - Margin doesn't matter. ❌️ - Volume growth doesn't matter. ❌️ - Net income growth doesn't matter. ❌️ - New cars don't matter. ❌️ - New factories don't matter. ❌️ - Only thing…
Tesla fundamentals are rapidly deteriorating. This stock is now quickly becoming a hope and pray stock. This is the risk when your valuation is very rich and your fundamental business is shrinking. $TSLA
@Loyalshareowner @garyblack00 I really like and respect Gary. I don't care what he lifts from me and I'm sure that's mutual.
@Raysliquidity @Tesla Easy solution to reward early adopters- I think the $12k or full FSD purchase should allow for lifetime transfer of FSD to new cars. Make this purchase attached to the DRIVER who bought FSD and not the car and everyone will be VERY happy! $99/month remains attached to a…
@garyblack00 Thank you Gary! Not sure why you get so much push back as you tell it like it is. Some people don’t want to hear truth.
@EthaiReubinoff @Tesla I highly doubt other CEOs are going to keep their job if they fold and hand the torch to Tesla on this profit center. Charging isn’t as big of a profit driver as software. Even Ford’s CEO gushes over software margins.