Victor Siu @vicsiu
American investor. 20 yrs of experience generating asymmetric returns 📈⚠️- Previously investing @citizenm, @goldmansachs, @blackrock. bonvexity.com SF and NYC Joined January 2011-
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Exciting news for California real estate developers: - The LA Superior Court issues a highly anticipated ruling addressing a Builder’s Remedy project denial - 600 Foothill, an 80-unit project in LA County - Builder's Remedy prohibits disapproval of a housing development that…
TikTok's motives are clear - sow discord, distrust, and depression, as a tool to advance the goal to shift the global hegemony. Not profit.
TikTok's motives are clear - sow discord, distrust, and depression, as a tool to advance the goal to shift the global hegemony. Not profit.
Excited to pick up polymath Yair Neuman's "Betting Against the Crowd". Abstract: "why betting against the crowd is possible only in short time frames, why is it important to be attentive to suspicious signs that are indicative of the crowd’s behavior, and why the long tail of…
When you build "luxury" new apartments in big numbers, the influx of supply puts downward pressure on rents at all price points -- even in the lowest-priced Class C rentals. Here's evidence of that happening right now: There are 12 U.S. markets where Class C rents are falling at…
Barry Sternlicht $STWD: "the Office market has an existential crisis right now. It's a $3 trillion asset class worth $1.8 trillion. There's $1.2 trillion in losses spread somewhere. Nobody knows exactly where it all is." youtube.com/watch?v=3IUD_3…
Signature Bank $SBNY failed in Mar 2023 with many CRE loans sold to $NYCB. $NYCB debt now downgraded to junk (equity -57% YTD). Next risk: midsize banking distress from extensive Office CRE loan portfolios - Valley $VLY, Cadence $CADE, Old National $ONB.
Explaining the debt/death spiral. Some of my comments were spreading on social media (they was a a discussion in Congress). Debt servicing = 40% of the past deficit. Next year we will pay interest on that. Debt servicing will reach 70% ,80%, displacing other expenditures. On…
Same reason why some cities and neighborhoods thrive (while others fail).
+/- 90% of commercial real estate is privately owned - the private opportunity set is several multiples the size of publicly traded real estate. In private transactions, investors can access more diligence than they'd find in public markets. Individuals, however, hold less than…
+/- 90% of commercial real estate is privately owned - the private opportunity set is several multiples the size of publicly traded real estate. In private transactions, investors can access more diligence than they'd find in public markets. Individuals, however, hold less than…
Milei's 2024 Davos talk, directly translated to English by AI (by heygen), in his own accent. Better than the dubbed version imo.
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5K Followers 292 Following We swing and trade intraday US markets exploiting statistical edges. We investigate the effect of demand/supply imbalance across time-frames and asset-classesSan Francisco has 130 commissions and more than 1,200 commissioners! And many receive full health care insurance from the city. No wonder no one is accountable for getting things done right. Even Los Angeles, many times the population of our city, has only 49 commissions.
The impact of ULA (LA’s "mansion tax") on development is much greater than most people realize. It hits projects twice —but probably not in the way you think. Let me explain: Let’s say a developer is building a building for $10 million to a 7 Yield on Cost (YOC) If the market…
San Francisco is 34% Asian, 5% Black, 15% Hispanic. The largest population of any minority below poverty is Asian (33k). But the @sfchronicle couldn’t care less about these facts. They just want to push the racist model minority narrative that all Asians are rich already.
the @sfchronicle when non-asian minorities do well: “lovely! incredible! what’s the secret to their success?” sf chron when asians do well: “gross, this is literally a *blemish* on our city’s institutions”
Most interesting idea i have heard today: These colleges are getting exactly what they asked for via admissions with on-campus activism. They literally told students they wouldn't be held accountable as activists as high schoolers and valued them 'taking action' .. oy vey.
Sam Corcos spends more time writing than any founder I know. His company, Levels, is worth ~$300 million, and he does a few Think Weeks per year. Unlike Bill Gates who inspired the idea, he likes to go with friends who can hold him accountable. There are no social obligations…
The Chronicle calls this profound lack of diversity a “blemish”.
The lack of diversity at Lowell has long been a blemish on San Francisco’s long-held academic crown jewel. Based on current trends, and a lack of any planned policy changes, that’s unlikely to change anytime soon. trib.al/S01xMOH
San Francisco boom loop here we come. This city is way too awesome to let it go. Elections can put leaders who can replace bankrupt ideology with strong policies that help every citizen. Elections November 2024— it's happening. The Boom Loop Begins
@nealkhosla In terms of what? But yes. Neg interest rates, oil below zero - we suspended the economic laws of gravity to stave off fear of economic collapse in 2020. Sadly, DC saw the opening and kept helicopter $$ going way too long. All this led to massive economic distortions.
How Paypal led to Palantir, a quick thread: Peter Thiel and Palantir's CEO Alex Karp were roommates at Stanford. Both received their JD's from Stanford Law in 1992. stanfordpolitics.org/2017/11/27/pet…
Housing first has accelerated suffering and death in SF and cities all over California When the evidence changes, we change our minds. What do you do?
In the face of persistent homelessness, Democrats are embracing more “drug free” housing policies even though such ideas have historically been viewed as antithetical to the “housing first” model. trib.al/SWPuBTT
The Latest $2B AI Craze, the Tech Hedge Fund Fallout youtube.com/watch?v=icZCYK…
So let me get this straight: a parents’ option is to send our kids to schools where they don’t learn STEM, they are potentially radicalized, they aren’t taught to think from first principles AND they have as high a rate of mortality as a soldier in a war? Awesome stuff team.
>1 person is killed or injured every school day in K-12 schools across the U.S. The more time I spend looking at this, the more concerned
As investors, we are thrilled $META is pressing their AI advantage, widening their moat & building the AI infra for sustained high growth. This is what great leaders do. Drive efficiency AND long term growth by doubling down on the AI that is already transforming the biz. 🚀🚀
Gregoire shows the clear difference between a bro and a brother A technology brother cares about his community and fights for it, even as a side quest A “bro” is a low information shitposter who also makes fun of real builders Be a brother, not a bro
Moderates who want to fix this recalled a hard left district attorney Chesa Boudin and 3 school board members, threw the extremists out of the Democratic Central Committee and are about to win control of the Board of Supervisors in November That’s what the fuck is happening and…
@garrytan What the fuck are IQ160 tech bros doing to handle that mess? So much money and brain juice to build chatbots and boring SAAS but dudes are okay to live in Walking Dead
“The day the music died.” Stick to value stocks, avoid tech for now. MLP pipelines still have momentum but don’t overweight too much. I own WES (9.9% tax deferred dividend) and MPLX (8.4%). MSFT best in tech if you must. 10 year Treasury moving to 4.75%. Why own bonds? T…
This is a shocking review of what its like to work at Bytedance. Is it really worth encouraging a company like this to continue operating in the US? Are these the values we should be encouraging?
"Tell your Lord that I have a degree from Harvard and have worked with Google, Microsoft and Apple.” "The Anjin says he took a 2-week finance course at Harvard Extension School and uses the G-Mail and Excel apps on his iPhone.”
This was such a poorly done video I think I am even more supportive of the TikTok ban than I was before.
Our CEO Shou Chew's response to the TikTok ban: