Φίλιππος @phileeppos
Joined March 2011-
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No one has to buy our insurance or use our designated corridor...
۲۲:۵۴/ ۴ تیر نهاد مدیریت آبراه خلیج فارس در پاسخ به استعلامهای مکرر اعلام کرد هرگونه تردد از مسیرهای خارج از چارچوب تعیینشده PGSA، مشمول تضمین عبور ایمن نبوده و از پوشش بیمه و مسئولیتهای مرتبط برخوردار نخواهد بود. تبعات ناشی از تردد از مسیرهای غیرمجاز، برعهده مالک، بهرهبردار
12 hours & 1 drone attack after IRGC complained about the corridor in Omani water, UKMTO announces its suspension. Who controls the strait of Hormuz again ? 🙂
⭕️ IRGC Navy: 'Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is only possible via routes announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran.' "A few hours ago, without informing or coordinating with the Islamic Republic of Iran, some authorities announced a new route for ship traffic in the
Big jump in tankers moving into GOO today. The 7d moving average is now at 10.2 mbpd (excluding 2.5 mbpd for Fujairah/Oman). Afaik we're not seeing anything like this move into the Persian Gulf. Seems these vessels are making a vote of confidence it will be safe to do so soon
Tanker capacity flowing into GOO is ticking up. The 7d moving average is now at 8.5 mbpd of potential capacity. Do these ships have booked loadings? Are they going into the Persian Gulf? Not really clear at this juncture
@holzibolzi I should probably qualify that statement a bit. I've been following it since the war started and have seen others say it's IRGC-linked. It also has been pretty spot on when it claims missile attacks are about to be launched etc, so I believe it. But I don't have hard confirmation
The IRGC is now claiming it has halted the flow of vessels through the Omani corridor. Looks like it's for real: about 6 hours ago (7:30 UTC time) several VLCCs that were booking it for this exit pulled a 180 and retreated and no tankers have passed since
I counted like 10m barrels of oil moving through the Omani corridor today, idk if the IRGC realizes how little credibility their threats have at this point. Gonna have to do something crazy or take the L
The fact that non-tanker vessels continued flowing after this is a little telling. Iran intends to keep the oil market constrained, this is its primary weapon and it doesn't intend to let go of it
On that projected increase in flow: maybe not x.com/phileeppos/sta…
The IRGC is now claiming it has halted the flow of vessels through the Omani corridor. Looks like it's for real: about 6 hours ago (7:30 UTC time) several VLCCs that were booking it for this exit pulled a 180 and retreated and no tankers have passed since
Implied Hormuz flow (moving out of GOO less Fujairah/Oman exports) of 15.5 million barrels yesterday bringing the 7d average up to 10.9 mbpd. This number will rise significantly over the coming week with the mass exodus of tankers through the Omani corridor that's now visible
@SameeLiaei @Drexler771 I don't think it's clear what's going on. The fact they all have AIS on shows they're not worried about Iran, which to me would seem to indicate some level of permission/coordination. But at the same time why wouldn't Iran force them to just use the Iranian corridor? It's odd.
I counted like 10m barrels of oil moving through the Omani corridor today, idk if the IRGC realizes how little credibility their threats have at this point. Gonna have to do something crazy or take the L
IRGC WARNS NEW HORMUZ SHIPPING ROUTE IS ‘UNACCEPTABLE’ AND ‘PERILOUS’ Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said any newly announced shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz that was established without coordination with Tehran is unacceptable and dangerous, signaling
@cwjroberts Some but nothing like this volume (at least on AIS)
@HFI_Research My theory is this is mostly Iran + UAE bound tankers. Iran for obvious reasons, UAE because they've clearly made some kind of deal with the Iranians. Most of the non-IR vessels I've seen do a round trip enter through the Oman corridor, load in UAE then, quickly exit the same way
I've been wrong about a lot of things so humility is warranted but I think we are here. Evacuating these sailors (and their cargo) was bound to happen so I expect to see a geiser of oil flowing out of the gulf in the coming days/weeks, but the real test will be durable in flows
Hormuz Exodus Begins: Ships Finally Sailing As UN-Led Evacuation Corridor Opens zerohedge.com/energy/hormuz-…
@usr_bin_roygbiv @FleischmanMena Let's talk about output then: would you mind sharing the last piece of production grade software you built? I don't mean a repo, I mean a live piece of software with a userbase. Surely you should have dozens of these if one day of your work is worth 27 years of a 2022 engineer's
Seeing mentions of China's continued buyer's strike but are most of those 50 million Iranian barrels just dumped on the market not headed for China? Genuine q. It would be bizarre with prices where they are for China to still not be buying, but the whole thing defies explanation
Implied Hormuz flow (moving out of GOO less Fujairah/Oman exports) of 16.4 million barrels yesterday. Brings the 7d average up to 9.1 mbpd.
Implied Hormuz flow of 13.1 million barrels again yesterday (5 million Iranian, 8.1 million other). Brings the 7d average up to 8.1 mbpd. At this point it's clear the closure on Saturday was either posturing or a short-lived negotiating tactic to extract US concessions
Maybe I could hit 50k followers if I started pumping semis instead of my usual beat of responding approvingly to posts about how incompetent the Fed is
I've been tracking Hormuz flows to one degree or another for half of this conflict. Those posts got no engagement until the last two weeks when they started to show a meaningful rise in flow. I have 1300 followers now and most of them are from the last two weeks🤔
@EndTesla True but does Trump just cave immediately and give them whatever they want? Also definitely YES. So the real question is does what they ask require either (a) Israeli compliance or (b) congressional approval, and if so, how do those actors respond to Trump's pressure
MoU may be working as intended, but it's very transactional. The oil flows as long as Trump keeps the money flowing with sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets, "reconstruction". Only real Q is after the money changes hands, does Iran re-leverage the strait for nuclear + Lebanon?
Implied Hormuz flow of 13.1 million barrels yesterday, jumping the 7d average up to 7.1 mbpd. Most of these left GOO early in the 24h period and would have crossed the strait itself around the time of the re-closure, so it could still be a temporary burst but it speaks for itself
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