George @georgezii_
risk addict | data driven discretionary trading | vampire of financial markets Currently in bear cave Joined June 2014-
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Rising inflation with declining GDP. Rumbles of stagflation… that was my long term projection all along not exactly there but its getting there. Unemployment should surge in coming months to make the situation FUBAR This is the nightmare situation for FED because there is…
Yes, we're getting more and more excited about the potential bullrun. Yes, moves happen quicker on the upside than the downside. But also yes, we could have a complete stalling for a few more weeks, till we hit new ATHs again. @thinkingvols keep doing your thing brother
IV-RV on $ETH will soon suggest that volatility is discounted, and this will most likely coincide with extreme vol term structure slope. My 2c is that if we get a flush below 60k, that will give 70k very soon after.
Gamma exposure has rarely been this negative, and whenever it has occurred, it usually is a bottoming signal. $SPY $SPX $ES
$VIX to $SKEW ratio is rallying. Markets are losing their hedges. Nobody wants to ride the wave down, and usually markets make such people regret for not doing so. Equities could get ugly from here. $SPX $QQQ
$TLT Price - RV correlation Seems like market is pretty scared about bonds, ready to sell those when things get volatile Worst thing? The correlation gets more and more negative, making investors more and more vulnerable to bad events One would name this chart 'mental capital'
$SOL is very undervalue compared to $ETH Multiyear lows in the metric below If you really want to long a crypto right now, $SOL might be your horse.
Temperatures ≥100°F in Texas during the month of February are not that uncommon; it can be expected to occur at least once every 8-years, on average. 𝐓𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐬 𝐅𝐞𝐛𝐫𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐰/𝐓𝐦𝐚𝐱 ≥𝟏𝟎𝟎°: 𝐓𝐦𝐚𝐱 ‣ 1902: 104° (state record) ‣ 1904: 100° ‣ 1917: 101° ‣…
Looks like Xi jingping is buying the dip
If your gut says "long something" then $SOL might be a wise choice here. It has been outperformed by $ETH for quite some time now.
$BTC block flows since yesterday's flush indicate that traders didn't buy the dip but instead bought mid-50k puts and sold mid term IV
$JPY Realized Vol at its bottom 10 %iles in 5 years Momentum remains pretty stable though, which makes me sceptic... Price looks like it wants to break out to the upside, but volatility is already to the hounds of hell, hence this rally wouldn't be sustainable
$FXI Realized Vol at 80th 5Y percentile Seeing this dropping down could send Chinese stocks to much higher levels.
#NaturalGas futures short term momentum is currently at -2z, while longer term momentum has still room to fall Bottom here? $UNG $BOIL $NG
$TLT Highest volume in a week... ever That's not a bullish sign, considering how chart looks. Next week will be so vital
10Y Bond ETF printed highest 1-day volume since early 2023, failing to break above previous high. Technically, this is rarely a good sign for bulls. Expecting market to turn over in the short term. $IEF
$BTC Stocks IV is skewed to the calls We just need the trigger now. $RIOT $MARA $CLSK
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This is an interesting chart, when 60/40 experience drawdowns you tend to see a spike in gold. To bookmark 🔖 Source @RayDalio
@georgezii_ Understandable. 19 is a peculiar number. Learn more here: mcoscillator.com/learning_cente…
@georgezii_ I have been preferentially using that EMA since I started in business in 1995, and my parents used it since the 1960s. It has a pretty good track record of working. 19 days is the reverse-engineered period supposedly equating to the 10% smoothing constant.
Sex is good but have you tried holding stETH as collateral, earning 5% yield and sold USDC settled ETH calls for extra boost? Only on Bybit. Others are nowhere as powerful and intuitive.
some charts. I expect taxes to be strong, buyable dip liquidity wise in the next 3/4 weeks
@georgezii_ I disagree with myself if I need to watch fundamentals. I agree with you on fundamentals. However energy stocks can go higher even if oil price stay at 80$. In fact I’m bullish on energy stocks but now bearish on oil price. And for bearish I mean stay here between 80-85$
one of the main plays this week for me is looking for a bounce on Swiss franc futures (shorting USDCHF). Some annotations of chart of things I look at.
@georgezii_ 65 is about three months and most big trend following firms use something around that as an average (5 is just a number that's bigger than 1 and less than 20, the results aren't very sensitive to it)
Few people know this but financial returns are not normally distributed. Mean-variance optimisation, Sharpe ratio AND the Black-Scholes formula are completely useless and can’t be used to make money.
Outdoor weekends to recharge batteries. ☀️🏝️🔋
With Fantom being one of the flavors of the week right now, I want to briefly voice my opinion on it as a former power user on the network. From my experience, tech does not make an ecosystem; community and strong leadership do, of which Fantom has neither. Their community…
There are three certainties in life: 1. Death 2. Taxes 3. A dozen minor car accidents after a few drops of rain in Sofia.
New article on vertoxquant(.)com! In this one we look at a strategy that takes advantage of people misinterpreting data by frontrunning them.
modelz - long brent - short vol - short bunds - long gas oil - short ES - short JPY - long PE1 curncy - short TY
@georgezii_ Trump tariffs remove "foreign"(Chinese) inflows into RE. Austerity for retirees forces elderly to sell their "paid-for" homes, in addition to higher carry-costs(ins. , utes, etc.)
@georgezii_ ... it's why I'm not comfortable sitting in a REIT...
I want someone to support me the same way how this buyer has been supporting price for last 10 hours
@georgezii_ @satoshiheist @GreeksLive @jckhoury_ @SDX_markets @Moby_intern @LilQwantXBT Sell short dated shit to fund the long dated Vega…. Like March 9 contracts day before were 92v… why, on a Friday? Forwards were 42…. And then yesterday ATM was like 30v lol.
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