Thierry Laduguie @eyield

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report was strong, fading hopes for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. Nonfarm Payrolls report came in at 172,000 jobs (well above the 80,000 expected), pushing the 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.54% on fears that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to tame economic growth. This comes at a time when oil is rallying near $100. A strong economy is associated with high oil prices, plus we have the AI infrastructure build out and the Middle East conflict, all bullish for oil and inflation. Expect bond yields to continue to rally and stocks to correct. In this environment interest rates are likely to go up, that’s why stocks are declining. But this is not a bear market, the correction will be short lived $FTSE #FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ

The BTI, a sentiment indicator, turned bearish three days after the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. Global markets are reacting heavily to a massive tech-led selloff from Friday and escalating geopolitical tensions over the weekend. Friday saw a severe correction in semiconductor and tech shares, leading to a 4% plunge in the Nasdaq Composite—its worst single session in over a year. Heavyweights like Broadcom, Micron, and Marvell Technology suffered double-digit losses as investors took profits from the extended AI rally

Just heard during a financial television interview on equity investing: “ANY pullback is an opportunity to buy.” This echoes quite a broad market belief -- conditioned by years of policy puts and outcomes-- that has increasingly ensured market corrections are remarkably limited in both magnitude and duration. Yet the deeper this belief is embedded in the system, the greater the risk of unsettling volatility in the event of a serious challenge, whether from fundamentals, technicals, valuations, or all three. #markets #investing #investors

@brain_stimulus It’s fake, created by AI

@DefiWimar He will sign a peace memorandum because the US cant defeat Iran, Iran is not Venezuela

@FoxNews These are probably flying devices used to spy on the US and the government thinks they are UFOs 😂😂

@HormuzLetter Increased activity in the sky in the UK near Fairford this morning, several US bombers heading south

@WallStreetMav This is not a very clever post, history tells us this is unlikely to happen. In the 1980s in France we had similar stories, at the time France had a "problem" with migrants from north Africa. Today France is still a republic and Islam is still a minority religion

The FTSE 100 is lagging behind as it is more representative of the state of the global economy. The impact of the war in Iran is slower growth, higher inflation and GDP in the US is slowing. Latest US GDP was 2% (2.2% expected). As I said the decline in the US will resume after the earnings season, sometimes the decline resumes in the midst of the earnings season when the majority of the big tech companies have reported earnings. Investors will focus on inflation and yields #FTSE $FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at a record high of 7,209, marking its best monthly performance since late 2020. However, futures are showing a slight pause as investors digest a flood of earnings and a pivotal Fed meeting. Alphabet shares surged 10% yesterday to record highs on massive cloud revenue growth. This helped the tech sector and the S&P rally to new highs. Qualcomm Surged 15% despite cautious guidance, showing strong underlying momentum in the chip sector. As expected the tech companies are doing well and the S&P rally continues

Oil will surge #WTI #crudeoil

Two B1 bombers have just taken off from the UK, heading south

@mdtrade But in this pattern wave C is in five waves not in three waves as you suggest. the pattern is a flat

Spotted a B52 bomber heading south, a sign the bombing in Iran will resume. Markets are already down in pre-open

A corrective waves is proportionate in time and magnitude to the previous advance, if a rally last a year the correction will last more that four weeks. Therefore the new high in the S&P 500 is still seen as a pause in the downtrend. The earnings season is also helping the S&P 500, companies earnings will probably beat estimates in a transition period where AI improves margins. The FTSE 100 is still below its all-time high, the rally can be labelled wave X of a downward double zigzag [W,X,Y] #FTSE $FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ

While recent sessions have seen the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record levels, the immediate outlook is shaped by high oil prices and the ongoing "higher-for-longer" interest rate narrative. This narrative is not going away, plus the supply chain disruptions, there are stories of food and petrol shortages coming soon. The S&P 500 is at new all-time highs because the majority of investors don’t try to time the market, they see a bull market in the next year or two and they buy as soon as there are signs the current oil shock is ending. The ceasefire in Iran and the drop in the oil price was enough to push the S&P 500 to new highs but history suggests that the correction in the stock market is not over

The rally in the S&P 500 has been sharp and fast, the S&P 500 is already near the all-time high. This is understandable, when we are in a bull market and there is a crisis, people will rush to buy as soon as the crisis is over. They don’t want to miss the bull market, they are right, the decline is wave (2) of the bull market. After wave (2) there is wave (3) up. The problem is that very often people buy too early, in this case wave (2) is unlikely to be complete. I believe wave (2) will extend below the recent low before it ends. The consequences of the war are not over, oil will remain high, inflation will rise and yields will rise #FTSE $FTSE $SPX #NASDAQ

As noted yesterday it will take weeks / months before the inflation data deteriorates, crude oil is unlikely to drop back to pre-war levels. Supply chains have been disrupted too, like during Covid, this resulted in higher inflation. My view is that the rally is driven by positive news, the bad news has yet to come. This is the important question, when will investor start selling? They will sell ahead of the bad data, it could be now or next week. The drop in the oil price is positive for metals like silver and copper, copper is near its previous high, metals will rally, this too is inflationary

News that negotiations to end the Middle East conflict could resume in Pakistan within the next 48 hours has acted as a massive relief valve. WTI Crude has dipped toward $91, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation. The S&P 500 extended its rally, the FTSE 100 is about to follow. The earnings season is underway, BlackRock and Citigroup are seeing upward momentum after strong Q1 earnings beats. The market is also reacting positively to the March Producer Price Index (PPI), which came in softer than expected. This reinforces the narrative that inflation is cooling, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to pause or pivot on interest rate hikes later this year. Overall the news is positive, the rally should continue

Investors don’t wait to see higher inflation before selling, they sell now. The only positive thing this week is the start of the earnings season. Q1 corporate earnings begin this week. Major banks are reporting soon, and investors are looking for fundamental strength to offset geopolitical jitters. We know that AI is making companies more profitable, the earnings reports should be positive. But the main concern is inflation, the rally last week is wave X of a double zigzag [W,X,Y], this rally probably ended at 10688 #FTSE $FTSE

After a strong rally last week—driven by hopes of a ceasefire—investors are turning defensive following the collapse of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. The subsequent confirmation of a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp rise in oil prices and renewed fears of supply chain disruptions. Last week rally pushed the FTSE 100 to 10688, at this level the rally has retraced nearly 80% of the previous decline. Given the rise in the oil price, and there is no reason to believe oil will go back to where it was before the war, the rally in the FTSE 100 is overdone. Everything will get more expensive, inflation will rise