Geoff Garbacz @bullet86
Head of Quantitative Partners Inc (QPI). Partner in Erlanger Research Inc. and Erlanger's Good Morning Wall Street. Partnered with several alpha research shops. goodmorningwallst.com United States Joined December 2008-
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$META down 10% on revenues +26% yoy vs $TSLA up 10% on revenues -9% yoy is precisely why I love the Market and I'm convinced that monkeys will always give us chances to make money 🥹
The absolute number of shares short NASDAQ stocks just hit a new all-time high!! 13,302,333,775 shares short with the prior high 13,225,296,344 on 6/15/2022. What does that mean for stocks? Take a trial and find out. We will do a video on it this weekend. $NDAQ #shortinterest
How many stocks are higher in the full #Erlangeruniverse which is 5032 stocks? The answer is 2025 which is 40.20% of stocks. Pretty ugly, got lots of work to get back to full-on bull market.
From @CNBC, “things that make you go huh???” -“consumer is resilent”, “consumer is strong” from Stephanie Link with complete acceptance from the reporter talking to her.
Do you get thoughtful charts in your Morning Note? We are constantly looking for charts that get you thinking. Here is this morning's charts from our note, sign up its free: quantpartners.substack.com.
Just wrote up "A Terrible , Horrible, No Good Day" on our Substack page, quantpartners.substack.com
Interesting only 2 have high short intensity in Erlanger work - $JOBY and $RCL. Others when the shorting is high, see smart short sellers $NOVA $TRUP $MARA but shorts not there now. Favorite on the list to short $CVNA as no one short.
Interesting only 2 have high short intensity in Erlanger work - $JOBY and $RCL. Others when the shorting is high, see smart short sellers $NOVA $TRUP $MARA but shorts not there now. Favorite on the list to short $CVNA as no one short.
When you have data that confirms a view and have been following that data for a long time ("years") with confidence, do not be swayed to go against the data by article, talking head or peer. If you want to go against it, then watch for the outcome and if correct, act. #advice
Song of the morning, pretty obvious why!! Buster Poindexter ~ Hot! Hot! Hot! youtu.be/HjO6FDCPIzA?si… via @YouTube
Do you know what stocks became Short Squeezes yesterday?How about Long Squeezes (where longs are being squeezed as stock is dropping in price). We are the ONLY research out there that tells you this. Notables today $PXD $PRU $DVN $SILV $IHG $BURL $TPR $POST/ Time to get on board…
Our morning note is simply the best there. Lots of graphics like this chart below. Take a look its free!! If you trade, then this is a must read. Click on to check on yesterday's and today's will be out by 8:30 a.m. EDT. quantpartners.substack.com
The 1:00 to 2:00 p.m. action was ugly this week. We have had three down hours during this timeframe out of four. #donotbuystocksbetween1and2edt
Another good example of tracking 5 minute ranges if you trade intraday. $SPY today sees 5 minute high at $523.70, low at $523.23 and close $523.53. Just broke through with new high at $523.87 and then stalled back under the 5 minute high at $523.43. $524 today, flip a coin.
Not putting on short ideas that work? We have several active weekly portfolios. Today added three new shorts to our Model Short Portfolio taking our percentage short from 20% to 35% (up to 20 ideas to get to 100%). 2023 we made 4.03% in this portfolio when S&P 500 was up 24.23%.
Back in office after taking off Thursday & Monday for swim meet in Orlando. Like to look at the top 30 names by market cap in S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, only one name up in the S&P and no names up in NDX 100. As such, need to see improvement if you want to play a bounce. $SPY $QQQ
Working on @TheFREDreport Chartbook for Fred who is traveling in the great state of Florida. Word of advice, do not waste your time on stocks under $5. Most institutions cannot own under $5. #wasteoftimeandenergy
$DKNG Senator Snake Man (Richard Blumenthal D _CT) aka the "Big Liar" wants Draft Kings to stop targeting gambling addicts. Really? How about this - start providing the results those playing each game. There is no transparency. BTW, I play $DKNG and win 75% of the time and…
Untradeable market today on $SPY? The overnight low was at 4:05 p.m. EDT. This morning the open is the high???? Makes zero sense. Good luck sports fans. A George Costanza day, do the opposite of what you normally do.
The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is out and Short Sellers are increasing their bets. NYSE rose 2.92% and NASDAQ 1.86%. Further squeezing ahead? Our full universe of short squeezes is up 5.61% rebalanced each weekend. So not too much pain on the shorts ...."yet"
Love pundits that talk lots of trash about other strategies and trades; when their performance "sucks the big one". Then you if call them out they whine. Time to start calling out some of those that does this time and again.
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@bullet86 It’s been interesting, jpm and brk were up early, they’ve been slowly giving up the green and heading red even as spy strengthened. Surprised by brk given aapl down 12% in the year
Got sick and tired of being sick and tired and decided to lose some weight. Started at 254.6, now at 240.6. Goal is 215. Wish me luck.
One of these days, one of these bearish momentum divergences will take hold! $QQQ
Well, I am 50 years old today. And just getting started.
Here's why @fundstrat thinks there's still "gas in the tank" for this market rally:
United Airlines flight #UA354, a Boeing 757-224, diverted to Denver International Airport, Colorado, USA, after pieces from the inner leading edge slat of the right-hand wing had broken off.
@bullet86 Wow. Those are really good times. He’s a speed demon out there. Swimming is such an amazing give long sport. I’m just getting back in the water at 38 and I’m going to masters nationals this summer. .
I've never met anyone with intellect, wisdom, and charm who led a sophisticated lifestyle.
Sophisticated minds adopt simplified lifestyles; simplistic minds are drawn to overly sophisticated lifestyles.
The level of 5,000 for S&P 500 is a magnet 🧲 👇 @fs_insight
"If this is a strong market, 5,000 [on the S&P 500] won't mean anything. But in February, 5,000 could be a short-term top before there's a big air pocket. It's a level to watch," says @fundstrat
Today is showing an extraordinary amount of divergence that's been quite rare in recent months, if not years- Nasdaq is up 1.1% and SPX higher by 0.63%, but these indices are diverging substantially from actual market performance- meaning 9 out of 11 sectors are lower on the day…
@bullet86 I understand the math. More making the point that if the index is lower, it implies the avg company suffers from a strong economy, which is a weird result. I also think it's a false one, and ST flows are overwhelming fundamentals for now. Time and cash flows will fix that.
Watching the meltdown in Regional Bank stocks I begin to understand why the FED removed the line about a "sound and resilient" banking system from its statement yesterday 😂😁
On the day Powell stands to speak, the market waits, quiet and meek. If dovish words he chooses to say, the market will cheer and soar away. Stocks will rise, spirits will fly, underneath the monetary sky. But if hawkish tones fill the air, a drop in the market we must…
@bullet86 Very smart!!! I do max 3 trades a week. Risk management purpose
- What’s the difference between shorting a Double Top vs shorting a Double Top that turns into a Breakout? - A Margin Call - Le Shrub, from “Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator”
You buy shares without an exit plan. Shares dump lower. You buy more. Shares dump even lower, so you buy even more. Now you have a humongous position in a questionable stock & your dreams to get rich quick are shattered. What happens next? 👇👇👇
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