Joshua Smithley @blockedfreq
Aviation enthusiast w/ degrees in Aviation Management & Airline Operations @ Purdue University. Election junkie. #Pennsylvania elections guy & data analyst. pennsylvaniapowered.substack.com Joined July 2019-
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Currently waiting to board a flight to Harrisburg (feel free to say hi if you’re in town!), so it’s Q&A time. Anyone have questions about yesterday’s PA primary or outlook on this fall? Ask away.
Plenty of spin this morning, so let me make something clear - along with being a closed primary, VBM in PA is highly polarized. There is not a lot of crossover. Those Haley voters last night are not secret Dems or temporary switchers. For Dems, mostly ancestrals protested Biden.
FYI - the steady clip of counting you saw come out of PA today will be much closer to what it'll be this fall compared to '20. There are still problems here and there, but most counties have a solidified process + Allegheny will report VBM first. Expect blue --> red shift.
Over back in PA HD-139, just about all of the vote is in and the Republican wins 58.3% - 41.7% (R+16.6), marking a Dem overperformance of a little over 11 pts in this Trump+28 district - probably 10-ish in the end. This is an almost entirely rural district too. Absolutely wild.
In tonight's tale of split fields, Ryan Mackenzie in PA-07 appears to have cinched the nomination over his opponents in the GOP primary to face Susan Wild. He is, in my view, the weakest of the three people Wild could've faced. May move this to lean DEM soon.
Largely under the radar, we have a special election going on over in PA HD-139, a Trump+28 district. With a third of the vote in, the Democratic candidate leads 67.5-32.5. She'll lose, but we're on track for a possible overperformance given the early split. TBD.
✅ Race call: Summer Lee prevails over Bhavini Patel in the PA-12 primary, putting her on track to win a second term. Jeff Yass invested heavily to beat her, but to no avail.
It's still early, but a pattern is developing statewide. Trump is struggling heavily to clear 60-65% of the EV in a lot of the early reporting counties, mostly the suburban ones. Biden's taking ~95% of the vote easily in those. Reminder: VBM went out after Haley dropped out.
🚨 ALLEGHENY FIRST RESULTS (VBM) 🔵 POTUS - DEM Biden: 70,333 (91.4%) Phillips/Write-In: 6,595 (8.6%) 🔴 POTUS - GOP Trump: 9,411 (60.8%) Haley/Write-In: 6,064 (39.2%) 🟡 PA-12 Primary Lee (Inc): 22,209 (55%) Patel: 18,029 (44.7%)
The polls in PA close in a few minutes. Shortly, we will start gleaning some important tea leaves and signals for what happens in November. Stay tuned for updates... All I have to say for now is this - Allegheny incoming. 👀
PA Primary Day - 4:30 PM ET Update - Philly turnout: ~160,000 (EV + ED) - about half of 2020 so far. - Allegheny has finished processing all pre-ED VBM ballots (~90,000). - Turnout is tracking pretty closely to what I expected. Reminder: PA is a closed primary state.
Happy PA Primary Day! As of this morning, 466,806 Dems returned mail-in ballots (71.8%) versus 164,220 of GOP (69.5%). We should hit about ~80% cume returns by tonight. Philly total turnout as of now is ~110,000 (EV + ED), roughly 1/3 of 2020's primary turnout and ~30% of '16.
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Using a formula found in an old (before Split-Ticket!) article written by @lxeagle17, I calculated the elasticity of each county in Pennsylvania. Darker purple means a county did not shift much across elections. Darker green is the opposite.
By the way, this also applies to people making the argument that Michigan or Pennsylvania are trending blue because Democrats performed well there in 2022 (something I see on here all the time). 🍎 ➡️ 🍎 🍊 ➡️ 🍊
I want to let you all know that @RyanBizzarro did graciously concede and I love him so much for the kind, thoughtful conversation we had. Before we were opponents, Ryan and I were good. I love him so much. And I hope to get all the help and support he can offer. I need his…
This is a really good thread! Lots of insight!! Thanks Joshua!!!
Currently waiting to board a flight to Harrisburg (feel free to say hi if you’re in town!), so it’s Q&A time. Anyone have questions about yesterday’s PA primary or outlook on this fall? Ask away.
@JJYahdie @nataliemj10 I list a few resources that I think give good, balanced analysis: @gelliottmorris @lxeagle17 @admcrlsn @blockedfreq @DjsokeSpeaking @zach_solomon1 @JMilesColeman are some great accounts to start with! I also really like 538's pollster rating page: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratin…
McConnell’s continued (public) insistence that the Pennsylvania Senate race is a better pickup opportunity than Nevada or Michigan is baffling.
Asked about Senate map on Fox, McConnell says he's "most confident" in West Virginia. "Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania — all very, very competitive, and there are other states that could come into play, like Wisconsin." In Maryland, Hogan is a "fabulous candidate."
Remember these results next time someone tries to use voter registration statistics to explain PA Politics
@blockedfreq Keep it up, man. More people are reading your stuff than I bet you realize.
Predicting politics is a fool's errand. Betting on politics even more so. But I'm a fool when it comes to Pennsylvania and I like to predict it. So the only prediction I'll likely make for Nov. 2024: Pa. goes Blue in POTUS category. If you are into Pa. politics, follow…
4. Tonight's Pacers-Wizards game will draw under 2 million viewers. 5. I'll be watching the Maple Leafs-Canadians tonight. 6. John Fetterman will be the next Senator from Pennsylvania.
@blockedfreq Lots of second homes and nyc transplants in the area. Parts of Pike, though not those in this district (Lehman Twp) regularly give Dems some hefty margins for those reasons. Prior to Obama it looked like Pike would become a second Monroe County.
IMO Biden is a pretty decent favorite to win PA in November, but it has nothing to do with tonight’s primary and very little to do with Biden’s relatively strong polling there. As @blockedfreq has pointed out time and again, Dem trends in SEPA are simply too much to overcome.
If you're not following @blockedfreq (this site's best Pennsylvania elections expert as far as I can tell) tonight is a good night to start, especially as the state's primary results come in!
Joshua is the prophet of Pennsylvania politics. If you care about the Keystone State and aren’t following him (I have alerts turned on for him), it’s time to change that tonight.
The polls in PA close in a few minutes. Shortly, we will start gleaning some important tea leaves and signals for what happens in November. Stay tuned for updates... All I have to say for now is this - Allegheny incoming. 👀
@blockedfreq @DrewSav He's been endorsing pro Palestinian Dems too. Fetterman's political instincts are ok on this, just annoying when you aren't in lock step with him. A lot of misreading of salience here. Lot of strong Dem voters that have this I/P take while critics were already electoral skeptics
People are way overthinking this field office map. In most counties where this isn’t a formal Biden campaign office, the County Dem party office is already functioning as an informal hq.
Biden campaign field offices in Pennsylvania. Hmmm I wonder what part of the state he's focusing on.
@blockedfreq @ChiCyph80 Yeah, Montgomery hasn't updated at all, and we'll know on eday exactly what the dynamics are
@blockedfreq @DjsokeSpeaking @ChiCyph80 Please do keep us posted on the comparisons and breakdown of primary votes with '22 after Tuesday! Thank you
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