XIX Value ⚡ @XIX_Value

Bear market is coming, signals everywhere

🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge

3 weeks ago

The US stock market will literally never have a bear market again. Ever.

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Here you can have a fund manager who has achieved a 15% CAGR over five years with his fund, explaining in detail— and for free—the Q1 results of a company you have in your portfolio (because you copied him in the first place) X is the best social media platform on the planet

Gabriel Castro, CFA @gabcasla

3 weeks ago

$KOS Kosmos reported very solid results last week, but the stock dropped that day and has since trended downward in line with the sector, driven mainly by oil prices rather than earnings. Despite the strong performance so far this year, I believe the market is not fully

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Twelve months ago I wrote about $AUTG.L (Autins Group) The market had given up, the stock was trading below book value and priced for bankruptcy, but CEO Andy Bloomer stepped in with his "Survive and Thrive" strategy And it seems that, so far, it is paying off Last week Autins released a trading update (year to 31 March 2026) and shows the first net profit since 2017: • £0.17m, against a £1.2m loss the year before • EPS turned positive to 0.3p. • EBITDA jumped 71% to £2.4m, a 13.6% margin. • Gross margin expanded 430bps to 36.4% Multi-Year Revenue Visibility with new contracts: £12m of new and transfer business in the UK peaking at around £2.4m per year, plus €4.3m in Germany including a strategic Lightfoam award with a new customer Forward guidance is ahead of consensus: The Board is now guiding to FY27 revenues of £22 million against market expectations of £24 million. Reflecting the better than expected efficiency gains delivered in FY26 rolling into FY27, the Board confirms that its' FY27 EBITDA expectations of £3.1 million are in line with current market expectations. The Board is now also guiding to FY27 profit after tax of £0.8 million versus current market expectations of £0.7 million The balance sheet got cleaner: £0.75m of the legacy Maven loan repaid, a new £1m four-year facility put in place, and the final CBILS obligation (£144k) due to be discharged in July. Net debt £1.6m and trending down. Management now positions Autins as a consolidator, "well placed to capture further growth opportunities arising from consolidation situations within the UK supply chain." Still small. Still illiquid. Still under-followed. But the turnaround is real and the numbers are the proof. Check original post in my bio

XIX Value ⚡ @XIX_Value

a year ago

$AUTG.L $AUTG Autins Group plc Ignored and iliquid. Market cap ~£4m Stock price: £0.07 BV per share: £0.175 Negative earnings, but FCF positive. EV/FCF: 2.67 New CEO, new strategy to return to profitability. Cost reduction, debt amortization. Investment in R&D. 👇

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Cmon this has to be the top

Wasteland Capital @ecommerceshares

4 weeks ago

You only need three 10-baggers in order to go from $1 million to $1 billion. $1m to $10m $10m to $100m $100m to $1bn If you’re starting with $10k, you only need five.

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Posiblemente la tesis más alcista de Duolingo que he visto Long $DUOL

Libertad Digital @libertaddigital

4 weeks ago

🔴 Así ha sido el intento de Mónica García de responder a los medios en inglés 😬 La pregunta no ha quedado muy clara para ella y la respuesta se ha complicado más de lo esperado

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$PYPL PayPal Q1 2026 results were released Stock down roughly 10% today despite revenue $8.35B (+7% YoY vs. $8.05B expected), adjusted EPS $1.34 against $1.27 consensus, TPV up 11% to $464B But management guided an adjusted EPS decline of roughly 9% YoY for next quarter Full-year guide was reiterated, not raised The structural picture keeps deteriorating: operating margin compressed 182 bps, GAAP net income fell 14%, active accounts were flat sequentially at 439M, and transactions per active account slipped 1% But for me the bull case isn't dead, Lores announced a $1.5B cost-reduction program and a three-segment reorganization that clearly sets up a possible Venmo spin-off Stock trades at 9x earnings with strong FCF and $1.5B in buybacks this quarter Thesis is about execution and corporate action, not growth I hold my initial position $PYPL

XIX Value ⚡ @XIX_Value

4 months ago

Bought some $PYPL at $43 I think market is overreacting

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The remaining capital allocation question is where the asymmetric optionality lives Of the €1.0-1.3bn in incremental FCF the next two years should generate, the majority is mandated toward continued debt paydown to satisfy the 3.5x target The dividend, paused since COVID, has been openly signaled by Abia as something the board intends to revisit once the strategic plan is delivered. Grifols has 426m Class A voting shares and 261m Class B non-voting shares — both classes carry identical economic rights to dividends and earnings, the only difference being that Class B holders give up the vote in exchange for a small preferred dividend of €0.01 per share The historical discount has averaged ~28% and widened to ~35% under stress; today it stands at roughly 23% Within the Grifols capital structure, my preference is Class B (GRF.P) over Class A. The economic rights are identical and Class B trades at €6.98 versus Class A at €8.92 The math is straightforward — market cap~€5.62bn, net debt of ~€8bn, EV of ~€13.6bn, and on the midpoint of 2026 guided EBITDA of €1.94bn that puts the equity at 7.0x EV/EBITDA You are paying mid-cycle multiples for a business that just doubled net profit, just refinanced its near-term debt cliff, has explicit medium-term cash generation targets, and is now run by professional management Position initiated at €6.98. No investment advice

$GRF Few European names have been as beaten down over the last two years as Grifols In 2024, Gotham published a short report, sending the stock down roughly 40% in days; then Brookfield and the founding family explored a take-private at €10.50 per share as significantly undervaluing the company If you are not familiar with the stock, Grifols basically collects human plasma through a network of 300+ donation centers, fractionates it into therapeutic proteins and sells those proteins to hospitals and patients in 110+ countries The plasma business is a five-player global oligopoly alongside CSL Behring, Takeda, Octapharma and Kedrion; the barriers to entry are decades of regulatory dossiers and a logistics operation no greenfield competitor will ever replicate Their two biggest concerns have been debt and governance But they are entering in a new phase, after closing the refinancing of its 2027 maturities and also there has been a governance reset For the first time, operational and capital allocation decisions now sit with professional management and related-party transactions that defined the prior era have been eliminated Numbers from the FY2025 print released in February: revenue of €7,524m, Adjusted EBITDA of €1,825m at a 24.3% margin, net profit of €402m vs €157m the prior year, free cash flow pre-M&A of €468m, and leverage stepping down from 4.6x to 4.2x S&P, Moody's and Fitch each moved positively on the credit during the year Management has guided to FCF of €500-575m in 2026, EBITDA margin of at least 25%, and a 2027 leverage target of 3.5x or below Numbers that, if delivered, imply €1.0-1.3bn of incremental FCF over 2026-2027 still to be allocated

@blondesnmoney its ok buddy you tried the best you could keep going

I know many value investors advise avoiding leveraged companies, but deleveraging is an excellent way to drive a stock price up The analysis should determine whether the company will be able to repay its debt or not and if there is a clear path to do so It's a riskier game though

@leevalueroach Bought some, thanks

$SFCA.PA $SFCA Société Française de Casinos 2025 results • Gross Revenue flat VS 2024, despite casino renovations and restaurant disposal • EBITDA +1.3% to €2.96M (13.2% margin) due to disciplined cost mangement • Net Profit: €1.11M - P/E 8.43 • Cash €4.4M | Net debt ≈ 0 | MCap €9M • Another year with positive operating cash flow, but negative FCF due to strategic investments in two casinos Outlook: Lower capex expected in 2025-26 and back to positive FCF supporting future growth

hola, no atendí a la call, pero la razón que han dado es que prefieren mantener el dinero en la caja ante la incertidumbre macroeconómica y las subidas de precios en los chips y componentes, que se esperan que continúen durante este año. En principio me parece una razón válida, y tampoco invierto por dividendos, así que no me preocupa y ampliaré mi posición seguramente. El cash está ahí, sigue siendo clave en la valoración, y creo que es una buena decisión de capital allocation en base a la situación y el futuro de la empresa. paxglobal.com.hk/en/latest-news…

$0327.HK $PAX.HK $PAX PAX Global has announced results for year end 2025 DIVIDEND SUSPENDED, from 11% yield to 0% Tomorrow, at the earnings call, we’ll hear their reasons, but this could be a GREAT buying opportunity While dividend investors will look at the surface and may sell the stock as soon as the market opens, the reality of the results is quite different INCOME STATEMENT - Revenue -2.9% - Operating Profit HK$ 915,794 - Net Income +5.6% - Net profit margin increased to 12.9% thanks to more efficient cost management - EPS HK$ 0.70 - Stock Price HK$ 4.26 - P/E 6 BALANCE SHEET (HK$’000,000) - Market Cap HK$ ~4,520 - Book Value HK$ 7,972 - Net Current Assets HK$ 6,525 - Cash HK$ 3,907 (86% of Market Cap) - NO DEBT - EV HK$ 613 VALUATION METRICS - EV/Operating Profit=0.66 - P/BV 0.57 - NCAV 0.69 Let's see how the market reacts to these results, but it seems crazy to me that a profitable company with positive FCF would trade below the value of its net current assets What am I missing? ea-cdn.eurolandir.com/press-releases…

@AlvaroDerEco @gabcasla Al precio actual es incluso más atractiva, tiene la misma caja en el balance que capitaliza en mercado Hay que ver qué dice el management en la call respecto a por qué han cancelado el dividendo y que van a hacer con ese cash

@dipinvest What did you ask them?

$DCGO reported Q4 and FY2025 results yesterday with a revenue beat and improved 2026 guidance ($290-310M revenue and only $5-10M adjusted EBITDA loss, profitability in 2H). Revenues way lower than in 2024 as it has fully exited migrant contracts, but this was already priced in. Key balance sheet highlights (now very clean): - Goodwill + intangibles = $0 (completely eliminated) - Tangible Book Value = $1.28 per share - Trades at just 0.53x TBV - No longer a strict net-net (NCAV now $0.62 vs ~$0.70 price) - Almost zero debt I stay invested x.com/i/status/20335…

Last Thursday I bought $DCGO at $0.655/share, trades at 0.25x book value and ~0.67x NCAV They will announce results today. Big upside if 2026 profitability lands. If not, downside should be protected by net assets Let's see

Analisis del negocio de Pax Global Technology $0327 una empresa china líder en el sector de terminales de pago (POS) a raíz de debates sobre si los terminales físicos están condenados a desaparecer youtu.be/9c08GsLN6PU