Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) @VIEWS_forecasts
Predicting armed conflict up to 3 years ahead. Open-source and accessible for all. Developed by researchers at @PRIOresearch and @UU_Peace. viewsforecasting.org Oslo and Uppsala Joined March 2020-
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🚨 Come work with us! 🚨 We are hiring 1-2 Junior #MachineLearning Developer(s) to be based at @PRIOresearch! 📅 Apply by 5 May Find out more here ⤵️ prio.org/about/careers/…
🖊️ New article on the impact of United Nations Peacekeeping Missions and local food security in the DRC 🇨🇩, Mali 🇲🇱, and Liberia 🇱🇷
🖊️ New article on the impact of United Nations Peacekeeping Missions and local food security in the DRC 🇨🇩, Mali 🇲🇱, and Liberia 🇱🇷
How do we generate our predictions of armed conflict? In the latest Documentation Paper, we cover: ➡️ Input data and themes ➡️ #MachineLearning algorithms ➡️ Combining our sub-models into our main ensemble model Read more here ⤵️ viewsforecasting.org/wp-content/upl…
🚰 What is the relationship between water management, sustainable development, and peacebuilding? 📰 Find out more in this newly published review article co-authored by VIEWS researcher @stefandoring & @KittyyKim @ashoswai 🔗 Available open access: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
📢@UniKonstanz, Germany, is looking for a Postdoctoral Researcher on armed conflict and climate change impacts to (amongst others) work with VIEWS on the multidisciplinary conflict impacts project 'Societies at Risk'. Apply today! 🗓 Deadline 4 April. stellen.uni-konstanz.de/jobposting/8f1…
📢 New Website Section for Practitioners ➡️ Data access options: Csv download for latest predictions, API access guide for older predictions, Codebook ➡️ Interpretation tools: What factors drive our predictions? ➡️ Use cases across the triple nexus 🔗: viewsforecasting.org/early-warning-…
👋 Missed last week's webinar "Exploring the Societal Potential of the VIEWS Early Warning System: the ERC Proof of Concept Project in Review"? ➡️ No problem – slides and recording are up on our website! 🔗 Link: viewsforecasting.org/news/views-web…
Join us next week for a webinar on the results from our @ERC_Research Proof-of-Concept project! 📅 Thu, 22 Feb, 15.00-16.00 CET 🚀 Launch of updated data dashboard 🛠️ New resources for utilizing our forecasts in daily operations 💡 Register: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
Applications are now open for PRIO Student Programme!🎓 Up to ten master's students will join our vibrant, international and interdisciplinary research community while they work on their master’s thesis. Will you be one of them? Deadline: March 13 prio.org/education/ma
🧐 👏 Listen to @Vesco_Paola discuss her research on societal vulnerabilities and humanitarian needs arising from the interactions between climate shocks and armed conflicts in this recent episode of the @UU_University Research Peace Podcast! 🌱open.spotify.com/episode/7z9FNH…
📢 New monthly predictions just dropped for October 2023 until September 2026! 🏄 Explore the data via the VIEWS API: github.com/prio-data/view… 🧑💻 Model documentation and source code: github.com/prio-data/view…
@PRIOresearch AI Days underway - great presentations under the heading ‘AI on Conflict and Early Warning’. Recording will become available soon!
Join us tomorrow at 10:00 for the in-person panel "AI on Conflict and Early Warning" with: 🔵@HavardHegre 🔵 Simon Polichinel von der Maase 🔵@HaakonGjerlw 🔵 Mihai Croicu 🔵@sonja_haeffner Sign up here: prio.org/events/9080
Join us tomorrow at 10:00 for the in-person panel "AI on Conflict and Early Warning" with: 🔵@HavardHegre 🔵 Simon Polichinel von der Maase 🔵@HaakonGjerlw 🔵 Mihai Croicu 🔵@sonja_haeffner Sign up here: prio.org/events/9080
Day 1 of the #Data4Peace 2023 Conference in New York City was incredible! 🗽 💡 Opening sessions delved into the critical role of data and AI in conflict prevention, early warning, & peacebuilding. Virtual tickets still available: cic.nyu.edu/events/data-fo… #Data4Good #PeaceTech
P.Vesco @Vesco_Paola
338 Followers 507 Following Senior Researcher @PRIO and @Uppsala University. Deputy Director at VIEWS. All views are my own.
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Stefan Döring @stefandoring
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håvard mokleiv nygå.. @havardmn
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Erik Melander @melander_erik
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Haakon😷Gjerløw @HaakonGjerlw
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#NewData Exciting news for conflict researchers & #data scientists! Discover the future of global conflicts with CRAF’d partners @PRIOresearch’s latest @VIEWS_forecasts with up to the next 3 years, pinpointing potential hotspots. Discover the update: shorturl.at/btHJM
#EarlyWarning Webinar Alert! Explore the Violence & Impacts Early Warning System (VIEWS) after 18 months of development to predict conflict up to 3 years in advance. Join @PRIOresearch, @UU_University & @ERC_Research 22 February, 15:00 CET Register: bit.ly/3UKc0Zq
➡️Yesterday, we had the privilege of hosting Sweden’s @UNESCO Chairs meeting at Uppsala. Our researcher @stefandoring presented his research and the research projects at @ICWC_SE Research School. Thank you to all of you who attended! @UU_University @camilla67 @ashoswai
Had a wonderful time organising and presenting on evaluation metrics at our most recent @VIEWS_Uppsala workshop in snowed-in Uppsala ❄️
Save the Dates! The next #DemscoreConference takes place 13th - 14th of June 2024. @vdeminstitute, @QoGData, @UCDP, @VIEWS_Uppsala, Complab, @repdem_umu, and H-DATA.
Flashback to our presentation at the @VIEWS_Uppsala competition in #Berlin last month: Brilliant to see so many different approaches! This time we are submitting distributions rather than point predictions for #conflict intensity. @AA_stabilisiert @GermanyDiplo @AuswaertigesAmt
@GermanyDiplo @AA_stabilisiert @HavardHegre @colaresi @KITKarlsruhe @cornelius_fritz @chris_dworschak @MariusMehrl @DMuchlinski @unibw_m @PatrickTBrandt @doktorandahl 📰 Our third and last panel for Day 1 revolved around decision-tree based models and news data, with a contribution from Alexandra Malaga, Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, and Benjamin Seimon from @conflictforeca1
Stay Tuned! @vdeminstitute, @QoGData, @UCDP, @VIEWS_Uppsala, Complab, @erdda_, and H-DATA.
🤖🕊️Curious about how #AI shapes peace and conflict research? Join Jim Dale and Mert Can Yilmaz in this episode as we talk about AI's role in forecasting global violence. From machine learning to ethics, we explore it all. @UU_University open.spotify.com/episode/0UgAQF…
Day 1 of the #Data4Peace 2023 Conference in New York City was incredible! 🗽 💡 Opening sessions delved into the critical role of data and AI in conflict prevention, early warning, & peacebuilding. Virtual tickets still available: cic.nyu.edu/events/data-fo… #Data4Good #PeaceTech
Grateful for the opportunity to present co-authored work as part of the @VIEWS_Uppsala prediction workshop. Such an intellectually stimulating two days! Thank you everyone for putting this together @Vesco_Paola @HavardHegre @colaresi @PRIOresearch @GermanyDiplo @AA_stabilisiert
📢 Day 2 of our Prediction Competition Workshop kicked off with a panel on deep learning and machine learning! Our presenters were: ➡️ @vjdorazio ➡️ @NilsWMetternich, Finn Klede, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch ➡️ Thomas Schincariol, @hannahh_frank, Thomas Chadefaux @LabConflict
These theories are used to operationalize nine models and use the political Violence Early Warning Sytem to generate forecasts for intrastate armed conflict in Africa. To learn more about the results, read the authors in JPR tinyurl.com/yddan4ka
How can protest data contribute to predicting armed conflict? Espen Geelmuyden Rød, @HavardHegre & Maxine Leis explore this topic by identifying three theoretical explanations related to protest-repression dynamics, political institutions and economic development.
Had a blast presenting joint work on using Temporal Fusion Transformers at the @VIEWS_Uppsala conflict prediction challenge. Really great presentations and great discussions overall!
🧑💻 Our fifth and last panel included the following teams that worked with transformer models: ➡️ @JarryWotter, Sonja Häffner, @teamoswald, Marco Binetti ➡️ Luca Macis & Marco Tagliapetra @unito 👏 Thank you to all teams for presenting their models and exchanging feedback!
CRAF'd ecosystem collab on advancing #data-driven #earlywarning in practice. Great to see our partners @AA_stabilisiert & @VIEWS_Uppsala leading the way! #CRAFdEcosystem
A successful wrap-up to the two-day workshop of the @VIEWS_Uppsala prediction competition, where #PREVIEW and international researchers share the common goal to advance data-driven #earlywarning.
Just came back from a great workshop on forecasting conflict with @VIEWS_Uppsala and @GermanyDiplo. Many thanks to the organisers @HavardHegre, @Vesco_Paola, @colaresi , @AA_stabilisiert, and their teams. @PolResearchYork @cornelius_fritz @MariusMehrl
@GermanyDiplo @AA_stabilisiert @HavardHegre @colaresi 💡Panel 1 covered hurdle and zero-inflated models, featuring presentations by: ➡️ Tobias Bodentien & Lotta Rüter @KITKarlsruhe ➡️ @cornelius_fritz, @chris_dworschak, @MariusMehrl ➡️ @DMuchlinski & Chandler Thornhill ➡️ Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer, Daniel Mittermaier @unibw_m
Two days of insightful presentations and discussions for the @VIEWS_Uppsala prediction challenge are over and I'm so thankful to all participant and @GermanyDiplo for having us. Can't wait to see the true future forecasts!
Based on preliminary evaluations and peer feedback, researchers will adjust their models accordingly. The path forward? Continuing the journey by comparing the predictions made by participants’ models to the real-world observations in the future.
A successful wrap-up to the two-day workshop of the @VIEWS_Uppsala prediction competition, where #PREVIEW and international researchers share the common goal to advance data-driven #earlywarning.
Anka Feldhusen, Director for Crisis Prevention & Stabilization, opens this year’s workshop of the @VIEWS_Uppsala prediction competition with #PREVIEW. Researchers from across the globe come together to discuss approaches to forecasting political violence.
In this year’s prediction competition, emphasis lies on conveying the uncertainty with which such forecasts are always associated. We’re dedicated to refining our understanding and methodologies for a more nuanced grasp of complex situations.
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