How can protest data contribute to predicting armed conflict? Espen Geelmuyden Rød, @HavardHegre & Maxine Leis explore this topic by identifying three theoretical explanations related to protest-repression dynamics, political institutions and economic development.
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These theories are used to operationalize nine models and use the political Violence Early Warning Sytem to generate forecasts for intrastate armed conflict in Africa. To learn more about the results, read the authors in JPR tinyurl.com/yddan4ka