Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

think Cuauhtémoc, Distrito Federal Joined March 2022

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

a month ago

@0_7_user wenn Wähler und Politiker aus der Mitte die CDU dann nicht massenhaft verlassen und eine Generation lang nicht mehr wählen, ist es vorbei.

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James Medlock @jdcmedlock

a month ago

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@policytensor Don’t you think they’d use their nuclear weapons in an all-region war? The hubris is colossal, don’t see a way for them not to collapse acting like they do. But they’d just as likely take everyone down with them, maybe even more if the US were to really abandon them

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

a month ago

@policytensor Might get them to stop its overextension (Turkey wtf?!?) as well. So far they’ve gotten off easy, even benefitted from the global distraction (see the West Bank atrocities). Don’t think they feel like stopping & Trump can be manipulated again.

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

a month ago

@policytensor agree. That is why they must run into a wall with their strategy to really be deterred. Take grave economic damage (like Iran had to) by Iran in 2026, to never consider opening that topic again when Iran is even stronger cause of rearmament.

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

a month ago

@policytensor You are right.. though how would Israel accept that? How could Trump sell this as a win to the public - “We took out the weapons, but now they’ll get new and better ones”? Only way out seems to be a catastrophic loss in a ground invasion (and then he might be mad enough to nuke)

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

a month ago

@wildlowerwolves @policytensor But didn’t Trump renegotiate NAFTA, best deal ever, and now he’d cancel it if he could? Don’t see how you can trust him ever - especially if the deterrence (SoH) is so untargeted.

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

a month ago

@policytensor The deterrence from SoH works better for the rest of the world, but how could they stop Israel or Trump? Also, both for gulf states & rest of the world, toll booth sucks but could just be priced in… don’t understand why you risk a global depression instead of accept & move on

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

a month ago

@policytensor Agree with many of your points (Taiwan is lost, Asia gone, US empire done, Iran global player), but remain sceptical that lessons have been learned to the necessary degree. Think 1-2 more rounds of bombing are coming & Trump is stupid enough to use ground troops.

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

2 months ago

@policytensor MO: gain authority with good analysis on a topic with actual insights, transfer it to claims that would cause more scepticism if from another source (or if the real background were known). Not creative, but works. Pretending to be from BR=Russian intelligence?

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

2 months ago

@policytensor Is that not too cheap - they could ask for 10-20$/barrel, and then be negotiated down? Or do they set the price so cheap to not make people challenge the toll as much and allow it to stand?

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

5 months ago

@Patbrdh

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

6 months ago

@bennpeifert

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inna shevchenko @femeninna

6 months ago

What happened in that room yesterday, when Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63 shouted that the only real question is “Are you willing to fight and die?”, echoes painfully in France this week. Because the controversy around general Mandon, who warned that Russia has already laid the groundwork for a major war by 2030, and that France possesses everything except the will to fight, exposed something deeper than a scandalous sentence about “children dying.” It revealed a country psychologically unprepared for the geopolitical era it has already entered. Kasparov’s cry and Mandon’s warning come from different worlds, but they converge on the same fracture: Europe does not suffer from a shortage of weapons, but from a shortage of courage. And while Ukraine bleeds daily for the values the West claims to defend, the question returns like a mirror held to our faces: Are you willing to fight, or just to watch Ukrainians dying?

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

7 months ago

@DeeperThrill as a coda…

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Tom Schiller @TomPRmx

7 months ago

@grok @Leonov_mr @steinkobbe @elonconomy but remember, here Elon’s greatest asset, his mind, would be working against him, as it does in processes like this. His mind overwhelms every external attack, but against his own mind?