Chowder @TheRealChowder1

I keep seeing investment strategists talking about the disconnect between equity prices and the economic fundamentals… Don’t forget what I’ve said before: Wall Street has done well because liquidity has been rising. That is exactly why we stayed bullish after calling the cycle lows back in Q4 2022. But Main Street is the ISM, and the ISM = earnings. That is why P/E ratios look expensive right now. The “P” is being driven by debasement (liquidity), while the “E” tracks GDP. Multiple expansion without a rise in E is fine as long as earnings eventually play catch up. The rally off the Q4 2022 lows front-loaded valuations. That put the burden on 2025 and 2026 to deliver the earnings growth to justify the 2023/2024 valuation premium baked into equities. The good news? Earnings revisions are booming. Once you understand The Everything Code, the whole thing becomes remarkably clear and simple…

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I can see all of Fintwit back to hurling insults at each other again, so I figured I’d share my view and try to be a voice of reason, even if I end up being wrong. It’s my job to stick my neck out. I’ve been doing it for years, and I’m still here. For what it’s worth, I think Bitcoin is forming another broadening wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish setup (chart 1). We’ve seen plenty of these in the past, and right now we’re testing the lower boundary of support. Another thing to note is that this bull market is officially 2 standard deviations oversold on the log regression channel (chart 2). Unless the bull market is over, which is not our view, these levels are about as good an opportunity as you’re going to get to add to this market. Also worth pointing out, Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands have only been this tight three other times in its entire history (chart 3)… What does that mean? We’re in a mega low-vol environment… Right now, the bands are as tight as they were in September 2023, just before a 200% rally. That move lasted from September through March 2024, with a 20% correction in January before prices rallied another 90%. The next chart shows the last three times Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bandwidth was less than or equal to 22, along with the forward twelve-month returns (chart 4). The sample size is small, but the results have been extremely positive… It’s the classic beach-ball-underwater dynamic. The harder you push it down, the more explosive the move when it finally breaks free. All in all, we need to do better when times are tough. It’s not just your hopes and dreams caught up in this trade, it’s ours too. Fintwit can be powerful when you follow the right people who are genuinely trying to help. We’re not gurus, but we’ve been doing this a long time, built comprehensive frameworks, and we’re doing our best to share what we’ve learned. At the same time, there’s a ton of poison and hate out there. Avoid it. When times get rough, we should rally around each other and stay focused on the big picture. This is a 70-vol asset. If you can’t handle that level of volatility, this asset class might not be for you. If you don’t believe in crypto and the life-changing tech it brings, it’s hard to stomach the swings. The only way to survive this kind of volatility is to extend your time horizon. When you think in days or weeks, every move feels like life or death. When you think in months or years, it all fades into noise. Once you stop fighting volatility and start embracing it as a feature of this space, everything changes. Volatility turns into opportunity. It’s a gift that lets you add to your conviction. Our view remains that Q4, once the dust settles, will be bullish, and we’ve done a ton of work to support that view. That’s the best I can leave you with on days like this. Good luck out there…

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FN SAFARI

#FNSUMMER MUSIC VIDEO. THIS IS THE FIRST FULLY AI MUSIC VIDEO MADE WITH @Google Veo 3. We made history with this one. @GoogleAI 💎

"Riot" Song: FERG - Floor Seats @elonmusk @realDonaldTrump @TheoVon @AutismCapital @EndWokeness @TiffanyFong_ @MattWalshBlog @MattWallace888 @benshapiro @benshapiroShow @nelkboys @kirawontmiss @TheFigen_ @DefiantLs

The final crossing of t’s and dotting of i’s – and what should be my last update on SEC v Ripple ever… Last week, the SEC agreed to drop its appeal without conditions. @Ripple has now agreed to drop its cross-appeal. The SEC will keep $50M of the $125M fine (already in an interest-bearing escrow in cash), with the balance returned to Ripple. The agency will also ask the Court to lift the standard injunction that was imposed earlier at the SEC’s request. All subject to Commission vote, drafting of final documents and usual court processes. That’s all folks!

I’ve said this before - the crypto industry will achieve our goals (and beyond), IF WE WORK TOGETHER. Appreciate the crypto President @realDonaldTrump’s vision of a govt digital asset reserve representative of the industry. Maximalism is the enemy of the industry’s progress. Glad to see POTUS recognizing we live in a multichain world and that we’re finally moving past Bill Hinman and the Biden administration's SEC’s very broken thinking. I will certainly continue to champion this while in Washington at the end of this week.

David Sacks @davidsacks47

2 years ago

President Trump has announced a Crypto Strategic Reserve consisting of Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies. This is consistent with his week-one E.O. 14178. President Trump is keeping his promise to make the U.S. the “Crypto Capital of the World.” More to come at the Summit.

5K 8K 46K 14.6M 2K

The US Government is literally telling you that they are going to kickstart alt season by buying your bags... Something I never thought would be on my bingo card.

Found in closet at Twitter HQ fr 🤣🤣

@danawhite NC @danawhite , illegal hammer fist to the back of the head, rules need to be enforced.

@Les_BoxeursFR Is that back of the head?

@elonmusk Escape from Tarkov!

@TommyThornton The Godfather.

@TommyThornton Scarface.

@APompliano @CashApp $TheRealChowder #PayMeInBitcoin !

🔥 We still have $250,000 in bitcoin to give away today 🔥 My friends at @CashApp are helping me make sure as many people are stacking sats as possible. In order to win some bitcoin, reply with your $cashtag and #PayMeInBitcoin. Let's make it trend globally again today!!

@MelissaLeeCNBC Looks like gramps in Miami..

@stephenLweiss @jlebenthal @HalftimeReport

@jimcramer CLNE…

@DereckCoatney That would be nice for my 25 strike puts…