Bryan Lim @TheRealBlim

Wall Street just pulled off the exact move that turned 2008 from a housing problem into a global collapse. They turned Nvidia graphics cards into bonds, stamped them investment grade, and started selling them into the funds that hold retirement money. Here is what happened while everyone was busy arguing about whether AI stocks were overvalued: The company at the center is CoreWeave, which rents out Nvidia chips to AI companies. To buy those chips, it borrows enormous sums, and the collateral on the loans is the chips themselves. That alone is alarming because a graphics card LOSES most of its value within a few years as the next generation makes it obsolete. You are lending against an asset built to rot. In January, Nvidia invested $2 billion straight into CoreWeave, which then used borrowed money to buy more Nvidia chips. On March 31, CoreWeave closed an $8.5 billion loan backed by its chips, and for the first time the rating agencies stamped that chip-backed debt investment grade, with Moody's assigning it an A3. Debt secured by depreciating graphics cards was rated nearly as SAFE as a blue-chip corporate bond. Then on May 18, CoreWeave closed the first chip-backed facility designed to be publicly syndicated and traded on secondary markets. And that's the part that really matters because it means this debt can now be sliced up, passed around, and bought by anyone, including the bond funds and pension managers who are required to hold "safe" investment-grade paper. On June 11, it announced another $3.5 billion in bonds on top of all of it. Now compare this to what happened in the past: Subprime mortgages in 2007 were not dangerous because some people got loans they couldn't repay... They became a global bomb the moment that debt got rated AAA and sold into the wider financial system, because the rating is what let it bleed into money market funds, pensions, and bank balance sheets that were supposed to be boring and safe. The bad loans were the spark but the packaging and rating were the detonator. And that detonator just got built for AI. Debt backed by graphics cards is now rated investment grade and trades on secondary markets, which means the AI bubble is no longer trapped inside tech stocks you can choose not to own. It has been quietly converted into bonds and routed toward the retirement accounts of people who have never typed a single prompt in their lives. And the whole structure rests on a backlog of customer "commitments" that CoreWeave values at nearly $100 BILLION, backed by a $21 billion Meta deal and a $6 billion Jane Street deal. Those are promises to pay over many years, made by AI companies that are themselves mostly unprofitable and burning cash. If even a few of those customers slow down or walk away, the collateral sitting under all this rated debt is a warehouse of chips losing value by the month. The AI bubble used to be a stock-market story you could opt out of. But as of this spring, that isn't the case anymore. So here's the real question: When the people packaging this debt swear to you that it's safe, who do you think is standing on the other side of that trade?

Paul Tudor Jones told everyone the market was about to crash - they laughed at him then October 1987 hit and the Dow lost 22% in a day - he made 200% that month he sat down next to Stanley Druckenmiller and they explained how they each saw the move before it happened "losers average losers" "every day I assume every position I have is wrong" two traders. zero losing decades. one conversation. bookmark and watch it today

st1ne @SolSt1ne

2 weeks ago

Michael Burry asked Washington one question in the New York Times - two weeks later the government came after him he was a Stanford neurology resident posting stock picks at night - quit medicine in 2000 to run money he read the actual mortgage documents nobody on Wall Street

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⚠️THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED: The S&P 500 Gamma has surged from deeply negative levels at the end of March to the highest since 2021, the fastest surge EVER. The only comparable episode was late 2021, when a similarly extreme gamma setup preceded a market top by just 1-2 months. Gamma measures how much market makers must buy or sell in stock futures to hedge their options positions. When gamma is positive and rising, market makers act as a stabilizing force, buying dips and selling rallies. When it swings this violently from negative to positive, it signals an extraordinarily unstable market structure underneath a calm surface. This has been driven by extreme speculation, particularly in the semiconductor stocks. When a market reversal comes, it will be sharp and severe.

THREE WORDS. THREE CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS. Sell. In. May. But only in mid-term election years. 2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%. 2026: mid-term year. -60.73% is pointing to $30K. May is approaching. The chart doesn't lie. The calendar doesn't either.

🚨 Anthropic's own team just showed how to actually prompt Claude. 24 minutes. free. from the people who built it. watch the workshop. bookmark it. worth more than every $300 course you almost bought. you've been using Claude without knowing 40 of its prompts. Then read the guide below.

Khairallah AL-Awady @eng_khairallah1

2 months ago

x.com/i/article/2048…

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The S&P 500 triggered a rare technical event today, gapping above both its 50D and 200D moving averages simultaneously. This looked weird to me, so I did some digging. Since 1950, this specific signal has occurred only four times. In every instance, the index faced significant pullbacks shortly after. The average three month drawdown following the signal is -9.51%, with the worst three month drawdown reaching -12.92% during 2018. Historically this has always been an exhaustion gap rather than a sustainable rally. Maybe this time is different.

This is how the S&P 500 could play out in 2026.

could go up or down innit

*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone

12 months ago

DIMON: I WOULD PRICE IN A 40%-50% CHANCE OF HIGHER U.S. INTEREST RATES

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Dear God, it's over 🫡

Sentiment check: Larry Summers is tweeting Polymarket recession odds in all caps like he’s Walter Bloomberg

😂

Kenneth Dredd @KennethDredd

a year ago

Quick Walter post some fake news, markets are dropping again

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Guy at Goldman watching the market today after he published a recession call yesterday and then rescinding it 73 minutes later when the market ripped

THE USD MELTDOWN CONTINUES The irony of it all is that we got the softest inflation report in 4–5 years yesterday. It was incredibly soft across the board — a strong hint of what’s likely coming in April, May, and June (excluding the impact of import tariffs). So, both of the typical macro inputs — forward growth and forward inflation — are down the drain, and yet Treasury yields are rising, while the USD is sold off rapidly against Gold, EUR and JPY for example. That’s what you call a term premia or credibility issue. And even if Trump reverses course on China, I tend to think the damage is already done. We need Powell to step in and calm things down. The narrative around him potentially being fired needs to be taken off the table. And we need to start talking down the scope of the tax cuts. Let's see whether Bessent has any power, because then the above will happen shortly.

USTs ignoring heavy week of supply (both Ts and IG) so far. Should get most of this week's Corp announcements today before Economic prints later in the week

This is a spot on analysis of @realDonaldTrump’s approach to foreign policy.

Kelly @kellytx2

a year ago

Very interesting perspective from Victor Davis Hanson. Everything President Trump does is with intent.

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Man eur rates pricing a lot of cuts for bad reasons while XO is pricing.. hate myself for lifting today but oh well

@EconguyRosie 14. "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate them than has been lost in corrections themselves." -- Peter Lynch

Fund managers are all-in on the long-bond trade, even with 200bps of cuts already priced in.

Heres what the Fed meeting minutes for July 2007 looked like when they were released on August 7, 2007. Its was a positive outlook. This goes along with the idea that 2024 is playing out just like 2007 before interest rate cuts. #FOMC#FOMC

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Here is the clip that ended Kamala’s first presidential campaign, X do your thing, make sure everyone sees this