Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
Treasury, Head of Global Strategy TD, Advisor to PM, punter. Speaker at Ode Management - https://t.co/dXJoiRJt1z MD Market Economics; Also https://t.co/kxt2ibOgfj thekouk.com Joined May 2009-
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Clag flatiron. Sticky.
Clag flatiron. Sticky.
"I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy" Tom Waites It's the weekend! Exploring the cellar shortly...
Based on the RBA's forecast evolution you might argue that it has already addressed the prospect of a higher inflation forecast with the November hike. That was seen as enough for that forecast track that it may well be potentially revised back to in May
Based on the RBA's forecast evolution you might argue that it has already addressed the prospect of a higher inflation forecast with the November hike. That was seen as enough for that forecast track that it may well be potentially revised back to in May
The China - US 'war' showing up this way... Doesn't need to drop bombs to screw with the US
The China - US 'war' showing up this way... Doesn't need to drop bombs to screw with the US
I'm not sure three RBA rate hikes will fix this
I'm not sure three RBA rate hikes will fix this
I am sure interest rate hikes will help this
I am sure interest rate hikes will help this
It is so funny The bulk of those who in 2021 & 2022 said there’d be few rate hikes & an ultra low cash rate peak due to a housing crash, when inflation was booming, are now bending over to say we urgently need hikes when inflation has collapsed to within a 9 iron from the target
Wage growth drives services inflation, which is what the Fed cares most about. Wage growth is going down, not up. This ain’t 2021.
Good news as govt debt eases. Govt debt at $891.5 billion having been broadly flat for the last two years as the budget surplus has impacted govt borrowing. Lower debt matters - in current era of high interest rates, govt debt servicing costs are contained as debt flat lines
More lovely charts from Shane... Have a close look
More lovely charts from Shane... Have a close look
Sell everything?
Looks like there will be a second straight budget surplus - 2023-24 is looking solid for a surplus. Excellent news and shows just how tight budget settings are and how fiscal policy is aiding the anti-inflation trend.
Looks like there will be a second straight budget surplus - 2023-24 is looking solid for a surplus. Excellent news and shows just how tight budget settings are and how fiscal policy is aiding the anti-inflation trend.
Inflation falling below target in Japan - world's 3rd largest economy. Throw in zero inflation in China, 2.4% inflation in Eurozone... it's time for that Bex, tea & a good lie down. The US is the odd one out - linked to the crazed fiscal position of the Biden administration
Inflation falling below target in Japan - world's 3rd largest economy. Throw in zero inflation in China, 2.4% inflation in Eurozone... it's time for that Bex, tea & a good lie down. The US is the odd one out - linked to the crazed fiscal position of the Biden administration
Tokyo April CPI ex fresh food +1.6% y/y vs +2.2% expected forexlive.com/news/tokyo-apr…
Another great chart from the CBA economics team...
One misnomer in most data analysis, including the Mar qtr CPI, is to judge the result against market expectations. When the market is wrong, it says more about the forecasting prowess of market economists, myself obviously included, than the data itself linkedin.com/in/stephen-kou…
Outside of shelter, healthcare, and auto insurance, inflation is running well under 2%, OK, before you say, “gee, that’s great, as long as you’re happy to be homeless, don’t drive, and don’t need any healthcare”. But that’s not the reason to exclude those three categories. The…
#inflation fears are steadily taking over market sentiment. After the combination of lower-than-expected US #GDP growth and higher-than-expected #inflation, markets now expect less than 1.4 rate cuts from the #FederalReserve this year!
Lost for words ✨… 📍Sistine Chapel, Vatican City 🇻🇦
Lost for words ✨… 📍Sistine Chapel, Vatican City 🇻🇦
Mike Carlton @MikeCarlton01
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Emenac Packaging Aust.. @EmenacPackAus
3K Followers 3K Following Emenac Packaging Australia offers customised printing and packaging solutions for all your business needs. Call us 24/7: (03) 9088 3189.
M @Mmmmmjjcc
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12 Followers 252 Following Public servant, father of 3 great kids, husband to an amazing woman, Queensland born and raised.
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103K Followers 5K Following Political commentator. Used to investigate stuff but got tired of it. Twitter edge lord's pin-up girl. Mostly hilarious. Likes are acknowledgments only. She/her
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121K Followers 17K Following energy geek. impatient incrementalist. root striker. @climate200 @opennem @SmartEnergyCncl #AEGN #SuperpowerInstitute likes≠agreement. DoB: 329.7ppm
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177K Followers 886 Following Columnist for The Saturday Paper and The New Daily, veteran political journalist. His views contestable but his own.
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Katharine Murphy @murpharoo
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57K Followers 6K Following Aussie, Mum & Grandma, loves spending time with family & friends, politics, cricket, cooking, photography Investigative Journalist for Independent Australia 🐝
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125K Followers 11K Following National Affairs Editor @10NewsFirst Occasionally @guardianaus @smh @abcsydney @theprojectTV Author “Minefields” @hachettebooks Netball dad.
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34K Followers 3K Following Co-presenter New Politics podcast, publisher, journalist. Son of refugee boat people, MEAA member. Don’t argue with me about being biased, because I am. #auspol
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Squizz @SquizzSTK
36K Followers 9K Following Watching the LNP (and other stooges) fart into a microphone whilst the media pretends it doesn't stink
Alan Kohler @AlanKohler
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Michael Pascoe @MichaelPascoe01
63K Followers 442 Following The Summertime of Our Dreams author, @TheNewDailyAu contributing editor, winner 2022 Kennedy Award Outstanding Columnist, speaker, rugby, prefer to be skiing
See Italy Travel @SeeItalyTravel
10K Followers 550 Following Taste the Italy of the locals! From private departures and custom itineraries, to authentic and intimate group tours!
Mambo Italiano @mamboitaliano__
10K Followers 497 Following Random gems from the most beautiful Country in the World 💃🌶️
Geoff Wilson @GeoffWilsonWAM
2K Followers 139 Following Geoff Wilson is the founder of Wilson Asset Management @WilsonAssetMgmt @FutureGenInvest
Seyed Mohammad Marand.. @s_m_marandi
147K Followers 222 Following Professor of English Literature and Orientalism, University of Tehran سید محمد مرندی، استاد ادبیات انگلیسی و شرق شناسی، دانشگاه تهران
James Thomson @MrJThomson
5K Followers 2K Following Chanticleer columnist at The Australian Financial Review. Former editor of BRW, the Rich 200 and SmartCompany. Husband. Dad. Go Pies. https://t.co/e9uwqxzTN6
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Canberra AFL Team @CanberraAFLTeam
718 Followers 2K Following Unofficial bid for the 20th AFL/W licence. Not affiliated with AFL Canberra or its clubs.
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58K Followers 614 Following Musée des Arts décoratifs • Bibliothèque • Musée Nissim de Camondo • Ateliers du Carrousel • École Camondo
Paris Musées @parismusees
91K Followers 741 Following Établissement public Paris Musées, le réseau des musées de la Ville de @Paris Retrouvez les musées sur Twitter : https://t.co/FphUqmVPLH
Beaux Arts magazine @BeauxArts_mag
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franceinfo culture @franceinfo_cult
88K Followers 1K Following Suivez l’actualité culturelle en continu
Ministère de la Cult.. @MinistereCC
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100%. Some of the best people I know and love have significant mental health challenges I wouldn’t wish on anyone. The idea they would ever be mocked over this is disgusting and tells me plenty about the character of those who mock and belittle. Zero tolerance for this cruelty.
Many of us will encounter mental health challenges at some point in our lives. Research indicates that younger individuals are particularly affected by these issues compared to older generations. When a former Prime Minister candidly discusses his own mental health battles, it…
A very special day yesterday @FlemingtonVRC spent in the company of this very special friend @CorinnaWho 💙🩵
Another price drop for the lamb chop. ABS food inflation data released this week shows some food categories are beginning to get cheaper. Read more on the link below - episode3.net/market-insight…
All those economists arguing for an interest rate increase might care to explain how higher interest rates will reduce housing rents, insurance premiums and global petrol prices 😳
There’s lots of good policy choices Australia should make But we rarely do, mostly because one side or the other of politics has successfully demonised it One reform I’ve championed just happened in the US Let's do it here too - it's smart and simple ftc.gov/news-events/ne…
@TheKouk My small business friends saying similar tbh. People need to remember interest rates are going up every month even without the RBA increasing them.
@burdenkylie1 Where is the king ? Keating buy a country mile .
Statement about the Lee Judgement. 🙏
Vegan desserts all done. Anzac biscuit-style flapjacks, Keto sort-of Anzac biccies (for my parents), rum balls and self-saucing chocolate cakes.
Staying busy. Food prep done - simple cheap vegan meals. Lentil and veg curry; Vegetable soup and baked homemade tempeh; Creamy veg pasta bake with crunchy herb topping. Pancakes for wife’s brekkie. Rice and grains we make fresh as needed. Next I am making sweet treats.
RIP little one. 💔
You can see how gaunt he has become - he hasn’t been eating much for last couple of days and isn’t cleaning himself anymore. Heart wrenching and a tough time all round. If he doesn’t pass soon we will have to make the humane choice on his behalf. We love you old boy 💔
Not many of us left Stephen.
There are some ultra nice people in the world... my Friday afternoon thought.
Fund manager and CEO spread Bondi misinformation - @MarkDiStef afr.com/rear-window/fi…
Quirky stat, Collingwood’s highest score in every quarter: In 1st Qtrs: 5.3 33 In 2nd Qtrs: 5.3 33 In 3rd Qtrs; 5.3 33 In 4th Qtrs: 5.3 33
Can't wait to get to Adelaide next weekend to watch our beautiful mare with @blake_shinn in the Saddle.
I Am Me makes her Adelaide debut next Saturday as she heads to the $1m Group 1 Sangster Stakes 👀 The @cmaherracing trained mare has accumulated almost $2.5m in prizemoney thus far and doesn't look like stopping yet.
Melbourne housing is looking very 'cheap'.
@TheKouk Yes. Or think of it as 0.07% of our living standards - one fourteenth of one percent. There are genuine competition and regulatory issues in our economy, and that includes some supermarket issues. But this is mostly red herring stuff.
@MChandlerMather Ok, so maybe you need to elaborate on why you will not acknowledge the link between hyper population growth and the rental crisis? That is an economic fact afterall.
For anyone who has been interested in my lawsuit against the Sun, the news is that I’ve had to settle my claim out of court before it gets to trial. A 🧵…
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