The Boston View @TheBostonView

My one takeaway: initial focus is on direction of monetary policy in a Warsh Fed, BUT what we're really looking at is the end of the Fed's volatility dampening effect. Instead, CB policy is going to start amplifying vol through at least year end.

Guy LeBas @lebas_janney

3 weeks ago

Kevin Warsh steps up to the mic for the first time: 🧵 1/x

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The Boston View @TheBostonView

3 weeks ago

Warsh is a good communicator. That alone is helpful to the cause.

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Warren Pies @WarrenPies

4 weeks ago

I'm seeing a lot of panic around the pullback of GPU rental rates (specifically H100s). Reminder that rental rates for old GPUs should decline over time. In general, the rental decline rates have been much shallower than assumed when modeling DC IRRs.

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TraderMir ‎ ✮ @OptionsMir

4 weeks ago

Fam, be extremely cautious with $SMH options flow if flow is part of your methodology. We’ve been actively trading it for well over a year. There have been multiple instances where the flow and price action felt designed to get everyone to zig while they zag. Strikes are often not targets so do your own work on levels and risk management in this volatile product. Remember how bearish the scanners were last week? Directionally they weren’t wrong for a moment, but the move wasn’t nearly as clean or aggressive as the flow implied. In fact it seemed the positioning helped achieve the June 650 target I'd given here several weeks months ago!

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Research & Invest @R_and_Invest

4 weeks ago

$MU, we were significantly above consensus for next two qtrs. As the previews are rolling in, nice to see street coming in close to ours. It also appears my FY28 numbers are conservative, so we will have to do something about it. FYI. DB raised MU PT to $1,500 from $1,000. We still do not see $160 in EPS due to Flash prices correcting in 2027-28. But I guess with contracts in place, anything is possible. NO Financial Advice. Please do your DD and do not trade on this info.

Research & Invest @R_and_Invest

a month ago

$MU Updated after estimated AI DC DRAM demand.

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Knockouttrader @knockouttrader

4 weeks ago

Deutsche Bank raised its PT from $1,000 to $1,500 and now expects Micron to report above the high end of guidance, driven by both higher pricing and higher bit shipments across DRAM and NAND. What’s notable is that DB no longer sees HBM as the only story. They argue traditional DRAM, LPDDR and NAND are all benefiting from increasingly memory-intensive AI workloads, keeping supply-demand dynamics tight despite multiple capacity expansion announcements across the industry. DB now models gross margins staying above 80% and believes DRAM demand will continue to outpace supply well into 2027 and potentially 2028. The key debate heading into earnings may be around Micron’s new Strategic Customer Agreements. Investors will be looking for signs that long-term contracts are improving visibility and making this cycle structurally different from past memory cycles. $MU

Knockouttrader @knockouttrader

4 weeks ago

RBC raises its $MU PT from $525 to $1.200 and is pretty optimistic until at least late 2027. The current DRAM upcycle isn’t close to finished. In fact, they think it has another 5-6 quarters to run, according to RBC who is getting even more bullish on the memory cycle. What’s

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Pythia Cap: Partially Conductive @PythiaR

4 weeks ago

@lokoyacap It's almost like Demand is exploding And supply is tight...

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The Boston View @TheBostonView

4 weeks ago

I show great deference to the learning curve, and have watched many either impossible or unaffordable things over the decades eventually work out. But I just can't see, at this juncture, how $SPCX is going to get space compute to scale anytime soon.

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The Boston View @TheBostonView

4 weeks ago

In this most recent failure of the oil analysts, we also learned that if you append a funny meme to every one of your tweets, this does not, in the aggregate, raise the quality of one's forecasting.

Under the Sunshine @UndertheSunshi4

4 weeks ago

@PauloMacro Oil bulls and barrel counters lose. Again. For the xxth time in the past couple of years. When will they learn that their counting and models are useless for price prediction when the data & behavior of the most important player (China) cannot be modeled? Probably never...

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The Boston View @TheBostonView

4 weeks ago

Robin you have long specialized in needlessly obtuse takes, and this one is a doozy. China built up its oil reserves to over 1.4 billion bbls, with the intent to protect itself in a geo-pol crisis, and released it. That took a lot of foresight, planning, capital over years.

Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks

4 weeks ago

@GavinSBaker China's reserve drawdown is a huge red herring. It's imports from the Gulf fell because the Strait of Hormuz was closed and Iran got blockaded. Other countries in Asia saw much bigger falls in imports from the Gulf, so China got off lightly. They didn't do anything to cap prices.

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The Boston View @TheBostonView

4 weeks ago

@EllisWyatt1971 @allenanalysis Hi Ryan. I am curious: how does it help you to firmly believe something for which there is no evidence. Not a single person is in possession of evidence that 2020 was rigged. Indeed, it's been thoroughly run through the judicial system. How does this help you?

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The Boston View @TheBostonView

4 weeks ago

@DoomerTard Well, one can always play around with the baseline, as you are doing here, by using the Iran-war low as your start point. On the matter of $DIA's outlook however, I would advise against framing it that way.