Samkon @SamkonModels

Predictive sports modeling. NFL '18: 75-47 (+43u) CBB '19: 77-49 (+34u) MLB '19: 304-292 (-15u) NFL '19: 29-27 (+4u) CFB '19: 39-28 (+10u) samkonmodels.com Joined August 2015

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

@Zane_Stephens Thought I had it up, just added it to the site dropdown as CBB '20.

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I’ve also finalized the CFB charity details. With CBB's efforts last year and this year being more internationally focused, I wanted to to do something more local to me for CFB. For this reason I’ve chosen Hunger Task Force, my local food bank: hungertaskforce.org

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

NFL has been in a rough stretch as of late, CFB has been on fire: NFL W7+W8: 3-7, -6.1u NFL YTD: 25-24, +0.7u CFB W8+W9: 13-6, +6.7 CFB YTD: 33-25, +7.0u Full YTD: 58-49, +7.7u

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

For this week's write-up, I try to deconstruct why the Cardinals' offensive improvement might be a little overstated and why the Giants may have value this week as a result: samkonmodels.com/2019/10/17/nfl…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

Starting to get questions about CBB with the season starting in three weeks. The same Doctor's Without Borders donation run will return in February, but I'll also be running plays for the full season. Here are the full details: samkonmodels.com/2019/10/15/cbb…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

@mike34S I've had zero complaints about line availability so far, and I personally use Nitrogen (and did last year) which just copies Pinnacle lines.

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

Week 6 went 3-3 for +0.14u bringing the season to 22-17 (56%) for +6.79u (11% ROI). Another free play write-up coming on Thursday👍🏼 PHI +3 -112 -1.12u❌ TEN +2.5 -108 -1.35u❌ SF +3 +104 +1.46u✅ ARI +2.5 -103 +1.10u✅ KC -4 +101 -1.10u❌ NYJ +7 -108 +1.15u✅

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

@magicman_picks Thanks for reading!

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

Finally had some time to put together a free play write-up for you guys. This week, I take a look at the surely to be divisive 49ers / Rams matchup: samkonmodels.com/2019/10/10/nfl…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

@Notorious_B0b Was waiting on whether Ward / Greedy Williams would play for CLE since the model highly values cluster injuries, didn't expect the jump to -5, was expecting -4 at most.

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

Week 5 finishes 4-3 for -0.19u, season moves to 19-14 (58%) for +6.66u (12% ROI). ARI +3 +101 +1.57u✅ HOU -4 -106 +1.15u✅ NYG +5 -104 -2.08❌ TB +3 -107 -1.34❌ NYJ +14 -108 -2.40u❌ OAK +6 +104 +1.56u✅ SF -5 -107 +1.35u✅

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

To follow up on this, I've added a tab to the NFL tracker to show results. Been doing much better after a few early season tweaks, but need a bigger sample to be sure. I'll provide another update in the coming weeks. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

Been getting frequent questions about college football plays. I’ll provide them at first to NFL subscribers to track their performance, and if it goes well I will open it up to everyone through another charity donation effort like we did with college basketball. Stay tuned!

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

A nice 5-1 Sunday for +6.77u. TEN +3.5 -110 (2.02 to win 1.85u)✅ MIA +14.5 +102 (1.50 to win 1.52u)❌ BUF +7 -104 (1.98 to win 1.90u)✅ NYG -3 -115 (1.15 to win 1.00u)✅ DET +7 +101 (1.50 to win 1.52u)✅ TB +9 -106 (2.12 to win 2.00u)✅

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

Sunday goes 2-3 for -1.86u, with one play likely coming in tomorrow. Season sits at 10-9 for +1.66u. SEA -4 -103 (2.27 to win 2.20u)❌ IND -1.5 -107 (2.14 to win 2.00u)✅ OAK +8.5 -101 (1.52 to win 1.50u)❌ CAR +2.5 -103 (1.29 to win 1.25u)✅ CLE +3.5 (1.33 to win 1.30u)❌

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

The pup had surgery yesterday so I didn't have as much time to spend on this week's write-up, but still wanted to get something out for you guys. Here it is: samkonmodels.com/2019/09/19/nfl…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

MNF play falls, bringing the season to 8-6 for +3.52u. Tracker has been added to the site on the Results dropdown, new free play write-up will be up on Thursday as usual. samkonmodels.com

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

@Faderswin All lines are from Pinnacle, taken throughout the week.

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Samkon @SamkonModels

7 years ago

5-2, +6.62u SEA +4.5 -106 (2.39 to win 2.25u) ✅ SF +2 +100 (1.30 to win 1.30u) ✅ JAX +9 -110 (1.76 to win 1.60u) ✅ GB -3 +108 (1.20 to win 1.30u) ✅ WAS +6 (1.63 to win 1.55u)❌ NO +2 -106 (1.06 to win 1.00u)❌ DEN +2.5 +104 (2.75 to win 2.86u) ✅