Patrick Fox @RealCynicalFox
USAF Vet. University College London Alumnus. @UCL Foreign Policy / Military Analyst. All opinions expressed are my own. patrickfox.substack.com Joined June 2012-
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This is a ludicrous notion. Just as I don’t want to see US personnel turned into walking targets in Gaza to placate the politicians need to “do something”, I don’t want to see allied troops consigned to a similar fate either. All they’ll be is attractive targets for terrorists.
This is a ludicrous notion. Just as I don’t want to see US personnel turned into walking targets in Gaza to placate the politicians need to “do something”, I don’t want to see allied troops consigned to a similar fate either. All they’ll be is attractive targets for terrorists.
In the generation that won WWII, this probably resulted in a verbal reprimand at most. Today he'd be court-martialed.
In the generation that won WWII, this probably resulted in a verbal reprimand at most. Today he'd be court-martialed.
European social democracies amassed huge welfare systems last 30 years because they relied on someone else for security (USA), someone else for manufacturing (China), and someone else for cheap commodities (Russia). What do you think will happen to this model without all of it?
This type of aggression against US assets used to be rare. Because America's enemies were terrified of what they knew the US response would be. Under increasingly weak and feckless US leadership, the consequences have all but disappeared, and so America is attacked regularly.
This type of aggression against US assets used to be rare. Because America's enemies were terrified of what they knew the US response would be. Under increasingly weak and feckless US leadership, the consequences have all but disappeared, and so America is attacked regularly.
Good. Disentangling PRC influence and access from TikTok after ByteDance divested would have been a genuine chore and an ongoing security issue. Better to excise this cancer from American life entirely.
Good. Disentangling PRC influence and access from TikTok after ByteDance divested would have been a genuine chore and an ongoing security issue. Better to excise this cancer from American life entirely.
China has the world’s largest Navy—& soon to be the world’s largest Air Force, U.S. Navy Adm Aquilino told Congress. “The magnitude, scope, & scale of this security challenge cannot be understated.” Today, the U.S. Air Force is the smallest it’s ever been, writes @defense_news:
Fair warning; this one is brutal. The EOD folks can tear the technical side of this apart in detail, but what immediately struck me was the total lack of effort by the unwounded survivor to treat the casualties.
Fair warning; this one is brutal. The EOD folks can tear the technical side of this apart in detail, but what immediately struck me was the total lack of effort by the unwounded survivor to treat the casualties.
GDP percentages remain one of the worst metrics to use for this debate. The question that matters is force generation. “If your country has to go to war tomorrow, what can it do so with?”
GDP percentages remain one of the worst metrics to use for this debate. The question that matters is force generation. “If your country has to go to war tomorrow, what can it do so with?”
Despite a massive lobbying & influence effort by the PRC, Congress passed & Pres. Biden signed legislation requiring ByteDance to divest from TikTok by January 2025 or be banned in the US. This is an excellent development. A post election deadline indicates the politicians…
Despite a massive lobbying & influence effort by the PRC, Congress passed & Pres. Biden signed legislation requiring ByteDance to divest from TikTok by January 2025 or be banned in the US. This is an excellent development. A post election deadline indicates the politicians…
I’ll take “Completely Foreseeable Charlie Foxtrots” for $1000, Alex. @i24NEWS_EN is reporting some equipment damage and one individual with minor injuries. i24news.tv/en/news/israel…
The U.S. Ambassador to Niger, Kathleen FitzGibbon as well as the Director of Strategy, Engagement and Program for U.S. Africa Command, Major General Ken Ekman will meet tomorrow with Members of the Niger Military Junta in the Capital of Niamey to discuss the “Orderly and…
BIG NEWS!!! State Dept @StateDeputySpox confirms that the U.S. has already provided Ukraine with long range ATACMS at the President’s direction. #StandWithUkraine
The continued reduction in flying squadrons is a massive problem. As the Russo-Ukrainian War is proving (again); mass matters.
The continued reduction in flying squadrons is a massive problem. As the Russo-Ukrainian War is proving (again); mass matters.
If the nations of Europe believe they’re in a pre-war period, as many of their officials have indicated they do; radical, society altering rearmament should be the order of the day. 5-10%+ of gdp for defense, enormous reindustrialization projects, promotion of childbirth, etc.
If the nations of Europe believe they’re in a pre-war period, as many of their officials have indicated they do; radical, society altering rearmament should be the order of the day. 5-10%+ of gdp for defense, enormous reindustrialization projects, promotion of childbirth, etc.
There is significant debate on who started WWII and when. Most agree it was Germany in 1939. Some make a good case that it was Japan in 1937. There are even those who cite Italy in 1935. This is just historical illiteracy masquerading as opinion:
Concur. This is at minimum criminal behavior & could in fact fall under various terrorism statutes depending on individual actions. Pres. Eisenhower deployed Federal troops to force school desegregation, not a stretch to do it again against Palestinian terrorist sympathizers.
Concur. This is at minimum criminal behavior & could in fact fall under various terrorism statutes depending on individual actions. Pres. Eisenhower deployed Federal troops to force school desegregation, not a stretch to do it again against Palestinian terrorist sympathizers.
Two points on this: 1. Palestinian terrorists are well known for both bombs and boobytraps. When faced with such an opponent, if something is out of place - don’t touch it! 2. This is why part of an NCOs job will always be yelling “Don’t touch nothing!” at their juniors.
Two points on this: 1. Palestinian terrorists are well known for both bombs and boobytraps. When faced with such an opponent, if something is out of place - don’t touch it! 2. This is why part of an NCOs job will always be yelling “Don’t touch nothing!” at their juniors.
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There's an entire ecosystem of lobbyists, think tankers, and comms operatives in Washington DC committed to telling you that appeasing Iran is smart, actually. It was seeded in the mid-2000s, and coalesced during Obama's second term into what they described as their echo chamber.…
This type of aggression against US assets used to be rare. Because America's enemies were terrified of what they knew the US response would be. Under increasingly weak and feckless US leadership, the consequences have all but disappeared, and so America is attacked regularly.
China’s thorough humiliation of SecState Blinken and the US is now complete.
Humiliation: Blinken departed #China and only the US ambassador said farewell at the airport. Not a single Chinese official came. The lowest of the low in international diplomacy etiquette, reflecting the condition of US China relations. Even when he arrived to Beijing, he…
Planned U.S. Air Force divestments and procurements for FY2025
@RealCynicalFox It certainly has the ability to do mass harm, nuclear weapons do as well, but that’s a policy choice. It’s avoidable. When the army operates civilian casualties are usually unavoidable regardless of policy
I love how certain folks pick and choose which IC findings they think are credible. Super neat.
The governments of China, Vietnam, Cuba, Laos, and North Korea are all officially communist. Of these, Vietnam is the only one to not embrace outright violence and totalitarianism in the exercise of power over its people and/or neighboring nations. Communism is the ideological…
@johnkonrad JFC John, what is the obsession you have with Communism? Like, it's not even a thing anymore.
Cause we should read this regularly: All that is gold does not glitter, Not all those who wander are lost; The old that is strong does not wither, Deep roots are not reached by the frost. From the ashes a fire shall be woken, A light from the shadows shall spring;…
The Israeli military says that a short while ago, IAF fighter jets struck Hezbollah terrorist infrastructures in the area of Markaba, as well as an additional Hezbollah military infrastructure in the area of Srebbine in southern Lebanon.
Essentia is a lab/shepherd mix who was rescued from the southern border, where the border crisis affects everyone—even our canine friends. Please consider giving Essentia a great home by adopting her from Big Dog Ranch Rescue. BDRR.org
China is not even trying to be subtle at this stage and it is quite telling how Beijing views Biden Administration which has been desperately trying to bring back some normalcy in the bilateral relationship and even succeeded to reestablish military-to-military channels. #Velsig
Humiliation: Blinken departed #China and only the US ambassador said farewell at the airport. Not a single Chinese official came. The lowest of the low in international diplomacy etiquette, reflecting the condition of US China relations. Even when he arrived to Beijing, he…
@ElbridgeColby The problem with the Biden Admin is that it talks like it is willing to do full scale, whole of society competition with China, but then it wimps out & begs China for help with Russia & in the Middle East. That is an unserious.strategic posture. It shows an administration…
Exactly this. But the Biden administrations continuous fluctuations over the intensity of competition with China also reflects the strain of pursuing primacy. America simply can't predominate in three unruly regions at the same time.
@ElbridgeColby The problem with the Biden Admin is that it talks like it is willing to do full scale, whole of society competition with China, but then it wimps out & begs China for help with Russia & in the Middle East. That is an unserious.strategic posture. It shows an administration…
Britain estimates 450,000 Russian troops killed or wounded - Britain estimates that 450,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded and over 10,000 Russian armoured vehicles have been destroyed in Ukraine. Click the image to read more. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-estima…
💯 Journalism would be much better off if the industry stopped hiring people who studied journalism and instead hired people with some technical knowledge of the field they're going to cover.
Many of these regretted majors - journalism, comms, education, marketing - are about teaching or communicating information from another field. It seems more employers prefer to find majors in the subject matter themselves and then just train them to teach, explain, or market it.
The Biden admin pressured our Arab allies to stop fighting the Houthis. They froze offensive weapons sales to lock in that pressure. They said it's how adults do foreign policy. Now the Houthis have disintegrated freedom of navigation and are plucking US drones out of the sky.
U.S. Officials have now Confirmed that Footage from yesterday did in fact show the Downing of a MQ-9 “Reaper” Surveillance Drone of the U.S. Air Force, by what is believed to have been a Houthi Surface-to-Air Missile System in the Saada Governorate of Northwestern Yemen, causing…
The same sophisticated foreign policy elites celebrated their “success” in Yemen before its civil war. Obama heralded it as a model of his administration’s new approach to counterterrorism in an October 2014 speech…four months later our embassy was overrun. There was no…
The Biden admin pressured our Arab allies to stop fighting the Houthis. They froze offensive weapons sales to lock in that pressure. They said it's how adults do foreign policy. Now the Houthis have disintegrated freedom of navigation and are plucking US drones out of the sky.
"Take Five" by The Dave Brubeck Quartet (1959)
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