Jootaek Lee @Profhalf2

My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0.

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$SKHY 4.87x. You gotta be kidding me. Even lower than $MU at 5.56x. At these levels, they can buy back the entire company in just ~4 years. Shortage until 2030. Pure madness.

$NFLX Netflix Q2 FY26: • Revenue +13% Y/Y to $12.6B ($20M miss). • Operating margin 33% (-1pp Y/Y). • EPS $0.80 ($0.01 beat). FY26 Guidance: • Revenue +13%-14% Y/Y (narrower). • Operating margin 31.5% (unchanged).

'Iran very much continues to talk to the United States of America and express that they want to make a deal with us because they are suffering devastating blows, on behalf of our United States military,' White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said

Google DeepMind just unveiled GenCeption. This AI turns video into depth, segmentation, 3D keypoints, and searchable 4D worlds. 8 wild examples:

The NEO's in the lab keep talking to each other

$MU signs a long-term supply agreement with $QCOM to provide memory and storage for AI-enabled vehicle platforms. The deal supports infotainment ADAS and connectivity while giving Qualcomm greater supply and pricing visibility.

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$TSM TSMC Q2 FY26: C.C. Wei: "Our conviction in the multi-year AI megatrend remains very high." • Revenue +34% Y/Y to $40.2B ($0.9B beat). • HPC 66% of revenue (+6pp Y/Y). • EPADR $4.31 ($0.37 beat). FY26 outlook: • Capex ~$62B (~$54B prior). • Revenue +40% Y/Y (+30% Y/Y prior).

$ASML ASML Q2 FY26: • Net sales +21% Y/Y to €9.3B (€0.4B beat). • Gross margin 54% (+0pp Y/Y). • Operating margin 37% (+2pp Y/Y). • EPS €7.59 (€0.60 beat). • FY26 Net sales ~€44B (€6.0B raise).

Just a reminder that deepseek v3 came out 18 months ago and was considered revolutionary at the time but is basically unusable today There was a fierce debate at the time about vibe coding and the argument was that LLMs can never create anything new because they are limited by their training data Those engineers were partly right and vibe coding was a real nightmare, I cannot believe what we used to put ourselves through with Sonnet 3.5, but we also knew real new things could be made and that the detractors were wrong I guess us non-engineers saw it most clearly (I would like to think so at least) because we were astonished at the new things we could do without the programming background, and we had nothing to lose and everything to gain in our enthusiasm Then came Opus 4.5 earlier this year which changed everything Suddenly real production code became possible with so much less friction and headache Everyone complained endlessly about models being nerfed or quantized but there was a steady march of progress from 4.5 to 4.8 Now a completely new crop of models is coming out that is not quite a 4.5 moment but something close We are not only getting more polish but things are becoming a little freaky, entire isolated domains become possible to combine with small teams or even just one person into new applications that would have required large infusions of time and capital in the past My wife back in 2021 told me about AI but I was in healthcare, I thought she was being a little nutty, and she talked like something from a science fiction film was coming and she got involved in it early on She never stops letting me know that she was right, and she was The next year is going to be wild, the world is truly going to change over the next few years, the scale of disruption will be a combination of astonishing and awesome, but also catastrophic There are many amazing things ahead and extraordinary challenges and opportunities We are living inside one of one of the biggest revolutions in human history

$MU Morgan Stanley just dropped a nuclear bull case. Morgan Stanley is projecting Micron will print around $400 billion in combined non-GAAP operating income across 2026 and 2027. That is nearly 40% of the current market cap. Let that sink in. Here are the numbers straight from their model: - CY2026 Revenue: $172.9B (massive growth) - Operating Income: $140.7B (81.4% margin) - CY2027 Revenue: $285.9B (+65%) - Operating Income: $248.7B (87.0% margin) Gross margins are modeled at 85% to 89.5%. Yes, you read that right. In memory chips. It is driven by explosive AI demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). Micron is scaling fast alongside partners. The entire industry is riding the AI infrastructure wave. Memory is the critical bottleneck everyone needs more of. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. Execution risk, competition from Samsung and SK Hynix, potential cycles, and macro shocks are real. But when a top bank models 80%+ operating margins on triple-digit billions in revenue, the upside case is absurd. Memory has always been cyclical. The difference this cycle? Structural AI demand that did not exist before. If Micron delivers even 70% of these numbers, the stock has plenty of room to run. Position sizing, risk management, and your own due diligence still rule. But the setup is one of the most compelling in semis right now.

BREAKING: US officials say shipments of Nvidia, $NVDA, H200 chips to China have begun. Nvidia shares extend gains to a new high of day on the news.

BREAKING: DeepSeek is preparing for an IPO and may file as soon as this year, per Bloomberg. Details include: 1. The company is reportedly in talks with accounting and banking advisors and the IPO is expected to be listed in China 2. DeepSeek has begun talks for a fresh funding round valuing the company at $71 billion 3. Amid rumors of an IPO, DeepSeek is now looking to expand into the agentic AI market The AI arms race is accelerating.

Boston Dynamics is testing a last-mile delivery solution, helping get packages from van to doorstep with less strain and greater efficiency. Learn how and why we're taking on one of the biggest supply chain challenges: bosdyn.co/4w2by8J

BREAKING: Trump has formally restarted the war with Iran, in a letter sent to congress on Friday July 10th. Trump said minutes ago the US will hit Iran "hard" tonight and tomorrow, adding "the MOU was only a test for Iran." Trump also announced he will address the nation on Thursday evening at 9 PM ET.

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BREAKING: President Trump has formally notified US Congress that the US is at war with Iran, per Politico. Details include: 1. The move gives Trump another 60 days to use the military in the region without congressional approval 2. Trump said strikes that began on July 7th represent "military action consistent with my responsibility to protect Americans and US interests both at home and abroad" 3. Trump also just said that he will "hit Iran hard" tonight amid mounting tensions The Iran War appears to be back again.

BREAKING: President Trump says he will be addressing the nation on Thursday at 9 PM ET.

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation today creating a new state point-of-sale rebate that gives all first-time EV buyers $3,500 off a new electric vehicle. • $3,500 off new EVs with an MSRP up to $50,000 • $1,750 off used EVs sold for up to $25,000 • The rebate is open to any Californian buying their first ZEV, regardless of their income level. If a ZEV automaker is headquartered in California as of Jan 1, 2026, there are no price limits. The rebate initiative carries a total budget of $270 million, with funding coming from both the state budget and automakers.

Goldman Sachs out on Sandisk $SNDK tonite: Taking up PT to $3100, upside potential to $4000 "SNDK’s recently signed New Business Model (NBM) agreements. Our updated model reflects committed revenues from five total NBMs: three signed in FQ3 totaling ~$42B of RPO, and two additional deals signed early in FQ4 with no disclosed RPO balance yet. We estimate all five deals represent ~$62B of minimum committed revenue over the next several years, with >$11B of financial guarantees/prepayments that provide better visibility than SNDK has had before."

Samsung Foundry’s Principle Engineer has announced that “the @Tesla-Samsung Al5 chip has reached tape-out. It is scheduled to be manufactured at the Taylor fab using our latest 2nm process and will soon be integrated into Tesla's newest products.” Volume production won’t start for a while, but good to hear things are still moving along. Picture of Tesla’s upcoming AI5 chip on the right:

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Jaan of EVwire.com ⚡ @TheEVuniverse

6 days ago

BREAKING: Samsung Foundry confirmed the Tesla-Samsung AI5 chip has reached tape-out! While @elonmusk's April AI5 post celebrated the *design* tape-out, this is the Samsung-side tape-out, which means their version is now ready to actually start being built on their 2nm line.

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