Glen Peters @Peters_Glen
Energy, emissions, & climate @CICERO_klima Projects @V_ERIFY_H2020, @4C_H2020, @ParisReinforce, @CoCO2_project, @iam_compact, @climatediamond, @EuPathfinder cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/g… Oslo, Norway Joined October 2012-
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If all the distance that was driven in EVs in Norway had instead been driven by cars with internal combustion engines, Norway's emissions would have been 1.5 Mt higher. Now that the passenger car fleet is 25% full-electric, this is having a significant effect.
With data available so far, our preliminary estimate gives Norway's emissions dropping in 2023 by 2.2%. Industry is cyclical: drops in production because of high energy prices have led to drops in emissions, so likely to bounce back. 1/3
If all countries did as Norway, would there be less of a climate problem? Yes, say a third of Norwegians... (A third didn't know, a third said no)
Lots of confusion in debate on 1.5C with & without overshoot (OS) ➡️IPCC defines OS as exceeding and returning (to 1.5C) ➡️Almost all IPCC scenarios achieving 1.5C by 2100 show OS ➡️Achieving 1.5 without OS = net-zero C02 by 2030/2035 See also 🧵below politico.com/newsletters/po…
Which countries extract the most carbon from the ground (coal, oil, gas)? robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2023/extrac…
@MaxCRoser For those interested, I keep a bunch of charts and data about Norway's EV transition updated here: robbieandrew.github.io/EV/
"Early final harvests are often motivated by forest health problems, changes in land use, and neighbours harvesting. The latter is simply that the forest owner gets the felling done because the logging team is available in that area" partner.sciencenorway.no/forestry-fores…
CICEROdagen 25.04: Klimakjempe og oljestat? Velkommen til en samtale om Norge som klimanasjon, hva som er våre egentlige utslipp og om vårt eget selvbilde stemmer med hvordan verden oppfatter oss buff.ly/4b9mmY1
Zeke Hausfather @hausfath
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831 Followers 835 Following Scientia Lecturer at UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response. I study severe weather in a changing climate. These views are my own.@Peters_Glen @HMcJeon @NB_pik @HarrisBerton Exactly. Doubt anyone has a problem with optimisation. It's the out-of-touch-with-reality that's an issue
@HMcJeon @Peters_Glen @rishpardikar @HarrisBerton Here's a modified fig. Physics-based models have stationarity and are valid for distant past and long-term future. Economic models are empirical and useful in for the near future (next quarter/year). IAM-based projections mix timescales of socioeconomic models with physics models
🌳 Original Forests v.s. Current Forests
Good rant from Glen. Maybe we should, like, reduce emissions? Meanwhile, as we all continue our high emissions lifestyles it's ok as long as you say the right thing on social media. Sigh.
To keep below 1.5°C, with a 50-50 chance, would require global CO2 emissions to be zero in ~2038 (orange line). The other scenarios (blue) overshoot to ~1.6°C before going back <1.5°C in 2100 (& they start with a global carbon price in 2020). 1/
@Peters_Glen (Crap! I just submitted my magnum opus on implications of overshoot… let me just go change that title and resubmit…)
A “digital twin” is just a pretentious name for a model.
@HarrisBerton This is just not correct. The importance of demand-side solutions is well-documented, such as in the latest IPCC WG3 report. ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3… While CDR is useful for hard-to-abate sectors, it can never substitute reducing emissions (see e.g., @Peters_Glen's work).
“Sooner or later, policymakers will have to embrace the ‘overshoot story’ if they want to stick to 1.5C,” @Oliver_Geden eenews.net/articles/un-ho…
@Peters_Glen And there are basic thermodynamic reasons why this is true. CCS is wishful thinking (or maybe just PR?) on behalf of fossil fuel interests that flies in the face of physics and chemistry.
China is selling more EVs than the rest of the world combined
@Peters_Glen Double- trouble! You are really unlucky with a laggard (AUS) and a complacent ( Norway) combination , aren’t you?
@Peters_Glen The current global *capture* capacity – of CO2 from combustion flue gasses – is barely distinguishable from zero. There is extensive *separation* of CO2 from natural gas (to make LNG), a small fraction of which is reinjected. The rest is vented to the atmosphere.
@Peters_Glen Hah, as soon as I saw the first graph I was about to jump in and say, "Hey, I know another country like this." ... :(
Norway has so little thermal power generation (currently <2% of the mix) that changes at individual power plants are highly visible in the national generation data. Some of the squiggles on this graph are nevertheless connected to seismic politics in the country.
For those who believe global emissions have leveled off, and that only atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (somehow) continue to rise, here's some sobering new (albeit still tentative) projections on continued rising CO2 emissions
A first guestimate at 2024 fossil CO2 emissions growth: +0.5%. This is based on IEA coal & gas reports, & the US EIA STEO (for oil). The coal projection is likely the most shaky. Weak growth in oil, strong growth in gas. Learn more on Thursday: cicero.oslo.no/no/arrangement…
@rishpardikar @Peters_Glen Thank you-I would view this more as a model weakness, since developing countries are unlikely to abstain from fossile fuel use if this delays their development. But you are right if the wealthier countries successfully enforce fossile abstinence for "newcomers". Best regards
The first quarter of the year is off to an exceptionally warm start, as I discuss in a new Q1 State of the Climate Report over at @CarbonBrief: carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c… ⬆️ Warmest Jan, Feb, March, and April (to date) by ~0.1C ⬆️ 2024 on track to be warmest or second warmest year
@EsaVakkilainen @Peters_Glen This paper explores a scenario of "multiple crises" (the ‘Communities’ scenario): journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
@Peters_Glen Thanks for sharing. I agree on this point, modellers (me included) naturally think in terms of their models. We would get better scenarios with broader thinking.