Outgroup Bot @OutgroupBot
万歳 Joined June 2021-
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Questions to Ask When Joining a Testing Team andr3i.com/articles/quest…
I was wrong here. There isn't much meaning to be found, at least without more sophisticated analysis (how do you control for remf being the only one who plays Spirits?). Still, most other criteria for deck selection are fake so might as well place a lot of stock in the data.
MTGO full decklist dumps are still not priced in. The first people to build out good parsing tools are going to get a significant edge.
I think a lot of people miss that on MTGO it's often correct to use in game time to think about sideboarding instead of the dedicated sideboard time.
It's very easy to have a completely wrong model of a format stemming from small gear level misunderstandings. The other side of this is that it's similarly easy to have a mostly correct model based on invalid reasoning.
The primary crux for whether to play Pieces of the Puzzle in Pioneer Phoenix is if it is better than Picklock Prankster against the various RB shells. Most people would agree that Pieces is better in mirrors and worse against decks like Amalia.
I think the frame of "as your opponent I was surprised by X" is very useful and underutilized in internal testing.
80/20 on sideboard guides is just which cards often get cut.
@Ajelenbogen @BobbyFortanely 56 was my estimate of even. I'm never sure what the best way to handle these is between market making, Brier score, etc. Half way seems fine. I was ok naming my number first/taking suboptimal odds because I know more about Bobby than vice versa and the value of my time is lower.
@jkyu06 @SamuelHBlack I'm very confused by this thread and the response to it. Either I am missing your point or I have no idea who your target audience is. Winrate of cards via 17lands can be useful input parameter but has a lot of context to it 🤷♂️
UB is bad in the current Standard in the same way that Rohirrim Lancer was bad in LTR Sealed.
Things I think many Pioneer Sac players are doing badly:
@ja3k_ Can you elaborate on your mechanism for doing this? Do you have an alarm set for ninety days or is that an estimate? Are you actively scanning for available bonuses or giving your email to all major banks?
@KoreanGriffith How confident do you feel in only playing one Terminal? Naively I would have thought that additional ways to filter mana are pretty valuable.
@afxmtg @_Batutinha_ What are the Crumble to Dusts for? Just Tron?
@ZaxAltForSenate I think I've got you beat on the going insane front:
@Shadowz2005 @AndreiKlepatch It's not better enough than other options after being priced in. Still fine but not good. If you look at RC winrates the deck did worse and worse.
@ja3k_ I am not qualified to speak to builds in this format yet but suspect that you may get a better response rate using sealeddeck.tech to share the pool.
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